Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 23rd and 24th: Cooler weather in the charts.

We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog.  Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families.  You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.

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Are you in need of new eye glasses?  New contacts?  Perhaps you need an eye exam.  Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).  For all of your families eye care needs.

Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

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You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well


BANNER OPTION 2

Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.

They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.

If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli.  For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.


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Looking for some tasty holiday treats?  Fluff Cupcakes has what you and your family need.  Located in Benton, Kentucky.  They even deliver!

**** VALENTINE’S DAY SPECIAL ****   $25 dollar special includes ~ 4 assorted Valentine fluff cupcakes in a fabulous box!  18″ Mylar Happy Valentine Day cupcake balloon tied to the box!  Valentine’s Day enclosure card!  Free delivery in Marshall County!  Free delivery to businesses in Paducah, Murray, and Mayfield!   Payment is required at time of order.  To place an order you can message Tracy on the fluff cupcake page, email, text, or call.  Tracy will invoice thru PayPal, & also accepts credit/debit cards, cash, and/or checks.  270-205-2552  tracyd@dcelectricinc.com

I have used Fluff Cupcakes, during Thanksgiving and Christmas, for the last couple of years.   I can tell you that the cupcakes are delicious.  Be sure and contact Tracy and place your order.  Birthdays, holidays, or just because!  Visit them on Facebook at this link – click here

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I have launched a new weather texting service!  Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.

Weather Talk is a monthly subscription texting (and more) service.  Supporting this helps cover the daily costs (average monthly costs are $700+) or all of the data, my time, and the Shadow Angel Foundation.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.  You can sign up and opt out of the text messages, as well.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three.  These are found behind the Personal Notification Settings on the weathertalk.com page.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

NOTICE!

I will be starting a weather watcher program soon.  One requirement is at least one spotter class from the NWS.  These are free and the NWS will be hosting online classes and in person.
 
There are a few classes over the coming weeks
 
Please let me know when you attend one of the classes.  

January 23, 2017

Monday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.   Above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Most likely none.  Monitor fog chances.
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 30 to 34    IL ~ 30 to 34   KY ~ 30 to 35   TN ~ 32 to 36 
Winds
:  North and northwest at 6 to 12 mph early and then 0 to 5 mph late.
Wind Chill when applicable
:  N/A
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Moonrise will be at 3:19 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:48 p.m.  Waning Crescent

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January 24, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast
: Partly to mostly sunny.  Some clouds over our eastern counties.  Periodic clouds through the day.  Clouds could keep temps down a bit over our eastern counties.  Breezy.  Well above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ <10%  IL ~ <10%   KY ~ <10%   TN ~ <10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 50 to 55   IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 56   TN ~ 52 to 58
Winds
:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph before 12 pm.  Winds increasing in the afternoon with gusts to 25 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  N/A
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? No
Sunrise will be at 7:02  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:11 p.m.
UV Index
: 1 to 3
Moonrise 
will be at 4:11 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:32 p.m.  Waning Crescent


Tuesday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Some clouds.  Isolated shower possible.  Breezy, at times.  Well above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Most likely none
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated shower chance
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 45 to 50    IL ~ 45 to 50   KY ~ 45 to 50   TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds
:  South and southwest turning out of the west at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind Chill when applicable
:  N/A
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Moonrise will be at 4:11 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:32 p.m.  Waning Crescent

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January 25, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  A shower possible.  Breezy.  Well above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 54 to 58   IL ~ 54 to 58   KY ~ 54 to 58    TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds
:  West at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind Chill when applicable
:  N/A
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? No
Sunrise will be at 7:01  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:12 p.m.
UV Index
: 1 to 2 
Moonrise 
will be at 5:02 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:22 p.m.  Waning Crescent


Wednesday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Turning colder.  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Most likely none. 
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 28 to 34    IL ~ 28 to 34   KY ~ 28 to 34   TN ~ 30 to 35
Winds
:  West at 7 to 14 mph.  Gusty early
Wind Chill when applicable
:  N/A
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Moonrise will be at 5:02 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:22 p.m.  Waning Crescent

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January 26, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny. Cooler.  Near normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ <10%  IL ~ <10%   KY ~ <10%   TN ~ <10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 40 to 45   IL ~ 40 to 45  KY ~ 40 to 45   TN ~ 40 to 45
Winds
:  West and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  N/A
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? No
Sunrise will be at 7:00  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:14 p.m.
UV Index
: 1 to 2 
Moonrise 
will be at 5:50 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:14 p.m.  Waning Crescent


Thursday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Clearing and colder.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ <10%  IL ~ <10%   KY ~ <10%   TN ~ <10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 24 to 28    IL ~ 24 to 28   KY ~ 24 to 28   TN ~ 24  to 28
Winds
:  West at 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  20 to 25 degrees
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Moonrise will be at 5:50 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:14 p.m.  Waning Crescent

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January 27, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Cool.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ <10%  IL ~ <10%   KY ~ <10%   TN ~ <10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 40 to 45   IL ~ 40 to 45  KY ~ 40 to 45   TN ~ 40 to 45
Winds
:  West and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  35 to 40 degrees
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? No
Sunrise will be at 6:59  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:15 p.m.
UV Index
: 1 to 2 
Moonrise 
will be at 6:36 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:12 p.m.  New Moon


Friday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear and chilly. 
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ <10%  IL ~ <10%   KY ~ <10%   TN ~ <10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 24 to 28    IL ~ 24 to 28   KY ~ 24 to 28   TN ~ 24  to 28
Winds
:  West at 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  20 to 25 degrees
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Moonrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:12 p.m.  New Moon

 

More information on the UV index.  Click here

The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.

Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

Visit their website here.  Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

 

Heath Banner

Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. 

Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

 

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

  1.  Another mild couple of days ahead of us
  2.  Cooler temperatures in the charts
  3.  New winter weather outlook has been posted!

WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK has been updated.  All new graphics and commentary!

Winter weather outlooks will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Winter Weather Outlook tab.  These are updated at least twice each week.

 

Monday night through Wednesday
Confidence:  High

Calm weather over the next couple of days.  Well above normal temperatures, as well.  High temperatures will pop into the upper 50’s on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Normal high temperatures are in the lower 40’s.

What an odd month January has been for the region.

Gusty winds possible Tuesday and especially on Wednesday.

 

Wednesday night into Sunday
Confidence:  High

A cold front will push through our region on Wednesday.  This front will bring an end to the well above normal temperatures.  With that said, temperatures behind the front won’t fall to extreme levels.  Temperatures will likely average normal to perhaps slightly above normal.  That will mean low temperatures in the 20’s and high temperatures in the 40’s.  Again, nothing extreme.

At this time, it appears the front will push through our region dry.  There will be some periodic clouds.  Gusty winds, as well.

A secondary cold front is forecast to push through the region on Friday/Saturday.

Some of the guidance indicates at least a chance of snow showers on Sunday.  I will keep an eye on it.

 

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WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK has been updated.

Winter weather outlooks will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Winter Weather Outlook tab.  These are updated at least twice each week.

To register and receive the winter weather outlooks, please visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted into text option three.  The text options are found under the Personal Notification Settings tab on the weathertalk.com website.

 


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Find me on Twitter

rainfallforecast

How much rain is expected over the coming days?

Not anticipating rain through Saturday.  Small chance for precipitation Saturday night/Sunday/Sunday night.

 High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Tuesday morning low temperatures


Tuesday afternoon high temperatures


Wednesday morning low temperatures


Wednesday Afternoon high temperatures

 

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No major changes.

whatamiconcered

No major concerns.

 

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Some general non-severe storms are possible on Sunday evening.

Monday night through Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

 

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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