Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.  

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? YES.   Wind chill values will dip below 10 degrees tonight and tomorrow morning.  Again Friday night/Saturday morning.

7.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  LOW RISK.   A small chance of snow showers today and tonight.  I will keep an eye on the weekend system.  It may stay too far south to impact us.  I will watch another system towards the middle of next week.  For now, the risk of accumulating snow is low.

8.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? LOW RISK.  A low rick this weekend.  That system may simply stay too far south to impact our region.  I have low chances of precipitation in the current forecast.  

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Notes:

THE FORECAST WILL TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll further down to see the region by region forecast.

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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

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A quick glance.  48-hour forecast Graphics

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Thursday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of scattered light rain or snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri  34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel  38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  32° to 34°
Southern Illinois  32° to 35°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky  35° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY  38° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee 38° to 42° 
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  15° to 25°   (coldest during the morning)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 5:10 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of scattered snow flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  8° to 12°
Southeast Missouri  10° to 14°
The Missouri Bootheel 18° to 22°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  5° to 10°
Southern Illinois  12° to 15°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  12° to 15°
Far western Kentucky 14° to 15°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 16° to 20°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  14° to 18°
Northwest Tennessee  14° to 18°
Winds will be from this direction: North  northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:58 AM
Moonset: 11:50 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Friday Forecast:  Partly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  32° to 35°
Southeast Missouri  32° to 35°
The Missouri Bootheel  33° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  30° to 32°
Southern Illinois  33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky  34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY  34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee 35° to 40° 
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  5° to 20°   (coldest during the morning)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 5:12 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:   Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri  22° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel 24° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  18° to 22°
Southern Illinois  22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  22° to 25°
Far western Kentucky 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee  26° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 22°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:01  AM
Moonset: 12:25 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Saturday Forecast:  Partly cloudy. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois  44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  15° to 40°   (coldest before 9 AM)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 5:13 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A slight chance of rain or snow showers across the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.  It may simply remain dry.  The storm system in question continues to trend south.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the precipitation:  After 12 am
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  24° to 28°
Southeast Missouri  30° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  22° to 25°
Southern Illinois  25° to 30°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  30° to 32°
Far western Kentucky 30° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 30° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  28° to 30°
Northwest Tennessee  30° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:04  AM
Moonset: 1:12 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Sunday Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel 42° to 45°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois  42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  25° to 35°    during the morning.  In the upper 30s to lower 40s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 5:14 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain or snow showers (south).
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the precipitation:  After 6 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri  26° to 30°
The Missouri Bootheel 30° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  20° to 22°
Southern Illinois  22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee  28° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 30°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:04 AM
Moonset: 2:07 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Well, it is not nearly as cold this morning as it was yesterday.  Still cold, but not as cold.

A cold front is pushing through the region today and tonight.

This will bring bitterly cold air again tonight and tomorrow morning with wind chill values  0 to 10 above.  Brrr.

Actual temperatures will be in the single digits north and teens south.

January has certainly been cold!

Here are the month to date January anomalies.  How many degrees below average have temperatures been?

Impressive.

Last year looked similar to this, as well.  The cold last year was not as prolonged, but was sharp.

Double click images to enlarge.

Here are some photos from New Orleans and Florida.  An historic winter storm brought record cold and record snow.

Portions of Florida received eleven inches of snow.  That tripled their previous record!  That is impressive.

The cold front moving through our region today could bring a few snow showers or light rain.  I don’t expect impacts.

At most, the snow flurries could cause a dusting tonight. We aren’t expecting that, but a small chance.

Dry conditions tomorrow into Saturday.

Saturday will be warmer with widespread 40s!!!  I can just hear the cheers.

Saturday highs.  Maybe someone will hit 50 degrees.  That would be nice.

A southern system could clip us with precipitation Sunday and Monday.  I have been monitoring this system for the last two weeks.

The GFS model has always been farther north than every other model.  It has been the outlier.

It looks like this system will stay to our south.  Perhaps clipping the Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky/Tennessee border.

I have low end precipitation chances.  Around 20%, for now.

I will continue to monitor it.  It is close to bring us precipitation.

If there were to be precipitation then it could be a rain or rain/snow mix.  Perhaps sleet.  Again, for now…the chances of precipitation remain low.

I am watching a system towards the middle of next week and another one next weekend.

At this time, it is still too early to know if these will be rain events or a wintry mix.

February looks active with numerous systems to track.

That pattern could continue into spring, which raises concerns about severe weather.  Something to monitor down the road.

Check out the European model.  This is the precipitation anomaly.  Active February?  Appears so.

Precipitation totals.  Keep in mind, this is the long range so confidence is low in the final details.  It is interesting to see the anomalies are so high.  That could be a sign of active weather.

Precipitation anomaly

Stay warm today and tonight!  A warming trend begins tomorrow.

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Future-cast Radar

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

NO MEASURABLE PRECIP ON THE MODELS

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways!  Now, I have another product for you and your family.

** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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We have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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