Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

.

.
I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page.  Link to those threads CLICK HERE

Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

.

Thursday, January 22, 2026
NW Tennessee.

FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING…

* WHAT…Visibility one quarter mile or less in freezing fog.

* WHERE…In Tennessee, Dyer, Lake, Lauderdale, Obion, Henry, and Weakley Counties.

* WHEN…Until 9 AM CST this morning.

* IMPACTS…Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.
Elevated surface such as bridges and overpasses could be slick.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

.

This is a long update.

If you don’t want to read it all, let me give you the overview.

Not much has changed since yesterday’s update.

We do have some initial snowfall maps.

These WILL change and adjustments are likely.

Sleet would lower snow totals.  But it would make driving more hazardous.

Someone always has more snow than forecast.  Someone always has less.  That is the nature of the beast.

Focus on the impacts.

The system arrives late Friday night.  The brunt of it will be on Saturday.  The snow will arrive over southeast Missouri during the morning.  The snow will push across the region mid to late morning into the afternoon.

There should be a lull on Saturday and then a second round moves in.  Keep that in mind.

The impacts will be hazardous driving, bitterly cold air, and low wind chill values.

Pipe busting cold is likely.

Temperatures from Friday night through Tuesday night will drop into the -8 to 10 above range.  Wind chills will be lower.

Expect school closures for much of next week.

I do expect some road closures.  That could include some Interstates in the Ohio and Tennessee Valley.

Travel is not recommended once the snow begins.

There is a decent chance that sleet will mix with the snow.  At least over the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky and Tennessee.

We aren’t sure how far north to bring the sleet.  Monitor updates.

Sleet would make the roads even worse.

There is a small chance of freezing rain over our southern counties (that sticks to wires and branches).  How far north the freezing rain pushes is still a question.

I found this from the Carolina weather group.

Sleet vs freezing rain.  What is the difference?

.

This is the latest snowfall map.  This will need adjusting.

.

The latest freezing rain map.  This does not include sleet.

..

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  NO.

2.  Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.

..3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.     

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.  

5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees?  YES.  Friday night through Tuesday night.

6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees?  YES.  Friday night through Monday night.  Perhaps a bit beyond Monday.

7.  Is accumulating snow (one inch or more of snow) or ice in the forecast?  YES. 

A winter storm could affect portions of the region from late Friday night through Sunday.  You will want to monitor updated forecasts.  Confidence is rising that snow will impact our region.

The primary event will be on Saturday and Sunday.  Friday night may remain mostly dry.  That remains a question.  The exact arrival time from west to east.

The bulk of the snow will come in two waves on Saturday.  Snow will linger into Sunday.

Updated graphics from the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS

A large winter storm watch has been issued.  This now covers all of my forecast counties.

Notice the mention of sleet and freezing rain has entered the picture.  There remain significant questions about where to dry that line.  Stay tuned.

Look at how big this winter storm is!  Everyone in blue is under a winter storm watch.  The pink is a winter storm warning.

.

The bulk of the snow will come in two waves on Saturday.  Snow will linger into Sunday.

.

St Louis NWS briefing (Paducah has not posted one this morning, yet)

This cover mainly my far northern counties.

** For planning purposes, if you have travel plans this weekend into early next week, then you will want to monitor updated forecasts.  Significant travel impacts are possible in some of my counties.  **

This event will be harsh on the elderly and those who are shut-in.  Be sure and check on them.

This event will be harsh on livestock and outdoor pets, as well.  Especially if we have wind and snow (moisture).

.

Wind chills will be an issue this weekend into early next week.  At times, wind chill values could dip below -10 degrees.

Remember, wind chill is what it feels like to the human body.

Wind chill can lead to frostbite.  Bundle up.

Let me show you the wind chill values

.

The National Weather Service has issued winter storm watches in blue.

A massive area is under the watch.  Quite impressive.

All of my counties are in the watch.

.

Remember, all models are wrong. Some are just more wrong than others.

Let’s not get too caught up in each model run.

WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE LAST NIGHT?

The primary concern is where to place the sleet and freezing rain line.

The models did shift northward a bit overnight.  That places the Missouri Bootheel into portions of western Kentucky and Tennessee in the sleet zone.  Perhaps even the freezing rain zone.

Significant questions remain on this topic.

The guidance does indicate the potential for some freezing rain.  Freezing rain is what causes tree and power line damage.

Sleet bounces off everything.

Sleet and/or freezing rain with snow would be awful for the roadways.  I would prefer to see all snow.  Ice underneath the snow is just that much worse.

Monitor updates, as always.

What causes precipitation to change type?

It really has to do with what is happening well above the surface.  A few thousand feet aloft.

A warm nose of air can cause the snow to change to freezing rain and sleet.  In other words, it melts the snowflakes.

Eventually, the depth of cold air is enough to cause the precip to become all snow.

This is very difficult to forecast.  There are always surprises in winter storms.

Here is a graphic explaining that.

.

The WPC NOAA/NWS keeps the freezing rain mainly to our south.

Here is the probability of 0.10″ of freezing rain.  That is not a lot.  The numbers will be MUCH higher as you travel southward into the ice storm zone.  Some areas could have 0.50″ or more of freezing rain across southern Arkansas into Mississippi, Alabama, and southern Tennessee.

As you can see, the potential is higher from southern Arkansas into the middle of Tennessee and perhaps into south central and southeast Kentucky.

The chances are currently lower over the Bootheel into western Kentucky.  I will monitor trends in the guidance.

0.10″ of freezing rain will not cause damage.

.

Here was the morning freezing rain forecast from the GFS model

.

With that said, some models are farther north with the sleet and freezing rain.

.
Here are the latest snow and ice projections.

These will still need adjusting.

.

Here are some ideas on impact.

.
We are still about 45+ hours away from this system. Shifts in the data will continue.

Today’s guidance will be important in establishing trends.

Will they shift north or south?

Lengthy update. I know some don’t like a long read, but I am trying to answer as many questions in the update as possible.

** Significant and possibly (for some) historic winter storm to impact the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys **

Focus on impacts and not snow totals.

Now is the time to prepare for a winter storm.

That means adjust travel plans and grocery shopping, plan for kids being home from school next week, prepare for bitterly cold temperatures, protect pipes and infrastructure, and prepare your livestock and farms.

Do not use extension cords with space heaters. Let’s avoid house fires. Remind your adult children of this.

Someone always receives more snow than expected. Someone always receives less than expected. That is just part of winter storms in our region. Focus on impacts. Not exact numbers.

Whether you have 4 or 12 inches of snow, the impacts will be similar. Obviously, more is worse. Four inches of snow with bitterly cold temperatures has impacts, as well.

Impacts will include pipe-busting cold, harsh conditions for those who must work outdoors, harsh conditions for the elderly, harsh conditions for livestock and outdoor animals, and snow-covered roadways.

Extended periods of snow and sleet on roadways.

Significant school closures are likely next week. Some businesses may have to close.

Prepare for issues as early as Friday night, but more likely as we move through Saturday and into Sunday.

The cold will linger into next week. What falls will accumulate instantly. Bitterly cold air.

Time of the event?

Late Friday night into Sunday. The focus is on Saturday and Sunday. There are still questions about the timing of the snow arrival.

Some data brings it in as early as Friday night. Other data holds off until mid to late morning on Saturday.

Certainties or near certainties?

This is strong language for me.

1. Bitterly cold air Thursday night into Monday night. Some nights will go below zero. Wind chills of -10 or lower. Certain.

2. Snow will fall across our region from late Friday night into Sunday. There could be a lull on Saturday before more snow develops. Two waves are possible. Again, there remain some questions on the exact arrival time. Certain.

3. Significant travel impacts for the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Interstates and major roadways, in the heaviest snow and sleet zone, could be shut down. Certain.

4. Some states will declare a State of Emergency. If the totals verify, the National Guard may be needed in the hardest-hit areas. Near certain.

5. Significant impacts to livestock, outdoor animals, and pets. Certain.

6. This will be difficult for the elderly and shut-ins. Certain.

7. Some areas will likely receive more than six inches of snow. Near certain.

8. Pipe busting cold will be an issue. Certain.

Uncertainties?

1. Where to end the heavy snow over our northern counties. Where totals could be less. This will depend on the storm track.

Some areas will receive much less snow (current thinking is my far northern counties). Towards St Louis and Mt Vernin. There remain questions on this.

2. Where to bring sleet into the snow. Sleet is the worst case with heavy snow. Sleet does NOT stick to power lines. Sleet, however, would make roadways worse.

Sleet will cut into snow totals, but will make roads worse.

3. Will there be some freezing rain in our region? That is what sticks to power lines. Confidence in freezing rain is low. That would mainly be our far southern counties. The Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky/Tennessee line southward.

4. Wet snow or dry snow. Blowing snow would be a bigger issue with dry snow.

5. Power outages. The risk of power outages could increase slightly with increased power demand. The power companies do a great job of keeping the power on.

More information.

This is my fifth update.

The National Weather Service has issued winter storm watches in blue. The watches extend from Texas to the Middle Atlantic. This is a large system. It will impact many states.

Winter storm warnings will be issued tomorrow or on Thursday.

Try to not focus on every model run. Try not to focus on one model run. They will all vary in how they depict this winter storm.

Confidence in snow Friday night through Sunday is now 80% to 100%. Those numbers have increased from the previous update.

What we don’t know are the exact totals for every county and city. Again, focus on impacts.

The main concern is mixing.  Sleet would lower the snow totals.  It would make the roads worse.

A shift of only 25 miles will make a big difference in snow and sleet totals.  Perhaps freezing rain, as well.

This system is still out over the Pacific Ocean. We are threading a needle with our snow forecasts!

The snow may arrive as early as Friday night. More likely, it will arrive Saturday morning and linger into Sunday. There could be a brief lull on Saturday before more snow arrives. Keep that in mind, as well.

What falls will accumulate. It will be cold. The ground and roads will be cold.

Snow ratios will be high with this event. The bitterly cold air will mean snow ratios of 12:1 to 18:1.

The snow is trending wetter over our southern counties.

What are snow ratios?

Typically, 0.10″ of precipitation (melted) equals one inch of snow.

With this system, 0.10″ of melted liquid precipitation could be 1.5 to 2.5″ of snow. It does not take much precipitation to create a decent snow event.

Radar may show snow falling, but it could be virga. Virga is precipitation that falls from the clouds but does not reach the ground. It is evaporating.

This is normal with bitterly cold temperatures. It is rarely too cold for snow, but it can impact how the storm acts.

High Confidence (5/5) that very cold air will be in place across the region Friday night into next Tuesday.

That means Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday night, and Sunday night will likely be in the single digits to lower teens. Even colder if we have snow on the ground.

It is possible some counties go below zero. That is especially true with a deep snowpack. Ideal conditions for very cold temperatures.

Higher Confidence (4/5) in the precise storm track and precipitation amounts.

If you have travel plans, then you may need to adjust them.

Again, let’s not forget that this is a bitterly cold air-mass.

This will be harsh on outdoor pets and livestock. Prepare accordingly.

Let’s look at some raw model data.

Here is the EC AI model.  It usually scores the highest in accuracy.

These numbers are with 10:1 snow ratios.  We expect ratios to be even higher.  Thus, these numbers are slightly low.

Keep in mind, ANY shift in the storm track will change these probabilities.

These are some pretty big numbers.  I will be monitoring trends.

What is the chance of three or more inches of snow?

What is the chance of six or more inches of snow?

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

.