Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.  

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? YES.   Wind chill values will dip below 10 degrees today.

7.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  LOW RISK.   A small chance of a dusting Thursday night.  I am watching Saturday night into Monday.  That system may stay too far south of us for impacts.

8.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.  

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Notes:

THE FORECAST WILL TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll further down to see the region by region forecast.

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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

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A quick glance.  48-hour forecast Graphics

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Wednesday  Forecast: Partly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  30° to 32°
Southeast Missouri  30° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel  32° to 35°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  30° to 32°
Southern Illinois  30° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky  32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY  32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee 32° to 35° 
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  -5° below to 20°   above (coldest during the morning)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Cold
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 5:09 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast:  Increasing clouds from the north.  Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri  20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel 22° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  18° to 22°
Southern Illinois  20° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  20° to 22°
Far western Kentucky 20° to 22°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 18° to 22°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  20° to 22°
Northwest Tennessee  18° to 22°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:57 AM
Moonset: 11:20 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Thursday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A slight chance of rain or snow showers over our northern counties (northern parts of SE MO and northern portions of southern IL).
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri  34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel  38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  32° to 34°
Southern Illinois  32° to 35°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky  35° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY  38° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee 38° to 42° 
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  15° to 25°   (coldest during the morning)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 5:10 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  10° to 14°
Southeast Missouri  14° to 18°
The Missouri Bootheel 22° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  10° to 14°
Southern Illinois  12° to 15°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  12° to 15°
Far western Kentucky 12° to 15°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 16° to 20°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  14° to 18°
Northwest Tennessee  14° to 18°
Winds will be from this direction: North  northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 20°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:58 AM
Moonset: 11:50 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Friday Forecast:  Partly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  32° to 35°
Southeast Missouri  32° to 35°
The Missouri Bootheel  33° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  32° to 34°
Southern Illinois  33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky  34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY  34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee 35° to 40° 
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  5° to 20°   (coldest during the morning)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 5:12 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:   Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri  22° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel 23° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  20° to 24°
Southern Illinois  22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  22° to 25°
Far western Kentucky 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee  26° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:01  AM
Moonset: 12:25 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Saturday Forecast:  Partly cloudy. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois  44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  20° to 45°   (coldest before 9 AM)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 5:13 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast:  Increasing clouds. A slight chance of rain or snow.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  24° to 28°
Southeast Missouri  30° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel 32° to 35°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  23° to 26°
Southern Illinois  25° to 30°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  30° to 32°
Far western Kentucky 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  28° to 30°
Northwest Tennessee  32° to 35°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Monitor the chance of snow showers.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 4:04  AM
Moonset: 1:12 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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For many in our region, today is one of the colder mornings of the winter, thus far.

Widespread single digits and lower teens across the region.  Wind chill values below zero in many areas.  Bitterly cold air.

Temperatures were below zero over our far northern counties earlier in the night.  Brrr

Portions of northern Kentucky were ten below zero!

The winds turned to the south a few hours ago and temperatures have been rising.

Here were the Kentucky lows

Thankfully, we are going to see a slow warming trend into the weekend.  It will still be cold, but not nearly as cold.

As a matter of fact, some locations will hit the 40s by Saturday!  That will feel great after weeks and weeks of cold temperatures and wintry precipitation.

I am watching a clipper system on Thursday/Thursday night.  A few rain and snow showers may accompany it.  It should not be a big deal.

I am then watching some southern systems later this weekend into early next week.  A lot of data continues to trend south with the rain and snow chances.  I have kept them on the low side as confidence in precipitation this far north remains low.

For now, I capped rain and snow chances at 30%.  A lot of data keeps that system south of us.  This remains a question.

The NOAA rainfall outlook continues to push farther south.  Lower totals with each updated outlook.

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Future-cast Radar

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

This is the NAM 3K Model

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways!  Now, I have another product for you and your family.

** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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We have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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