Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.  

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? YES.   Wind chill values will dip below 10 degrees today into tomorrow.

7.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  MONITOR.   A dusting is possible today.  Isolated.

I am watching Sunday into Monday for a southern system.  For now, the chance of precip locally remains low.  

8.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.   I am watching Sunday into Monday for a southern system.  For now, the chance of precip locally remains low.  

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Notes:

THE FORECAST WILL TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll further down to see the region by region forecast.

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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

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A quick glance.  48-hour forecast Graphics

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Tuesday  Forecast: Some morning clouds.  Clearing.  Cold.  A chance of snow showers this morning.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before noon
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 12° to 15°
Southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20° to 22°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 8° to 12°
Southern Illinois ~ 10° to 15°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 15° to 20°
Far western Kentucky ~ 18° to 22°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20° to 22°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 15° to 20°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 18° to 22°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  -10° below to 15°  above (coldest before noon)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Cold
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:08 PM
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Tuesday  Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  2° to 5°
Southeast Missouri   6° to 10°
The Missouri Bootheel   12° to 15°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois   0° to 5°
Southern Illinois   4° to 8°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)   6° to 10°
Far western Kentucky  8° to 10°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 8° to 10°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  5° to 10°
Northwest Tennessee  8° to 12°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° below to 15° above  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:
Moonset: 10:54 AM
The phase of the moon:   Last Quarter

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Wednesday  Forecast: Partly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri  32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel  32° to 35°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  32° to 34°
Southern Illinois  32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  32° to 35°
Far western Kentucky  32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY  32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee 32° to 35° 
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  5° below to 20°   above (coldest during the morning)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Cold
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 5:09 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri  20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel 22° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  18° to 22°
Southern Illinois  20° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  20° to 22°
Far western Kentucky 20° to 22°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 18° to 22°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  20° to 22°
Northwest Tennessee  18° to 22°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:57 AM
Moonset: 11:20 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Thursday Forecast:  Increasing clouds. A slight chance of rain or snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  36° to 40°
Southeast Missouri  36° to 40°
The Missouri Bootheel  40° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  36° to 40°
Southern Illinois  36° to 40°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  38° to 42°
Far western Kentucky  38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY  38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  36° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee 38° to 42° 
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  15° to 25°   (coldest during the morning)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 5:10 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  14° to 16°
Southeast Missouri  18° to 22°
The Missouri Bootheel 22° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  10° to 14°
Southern Illinois  12° to 15°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  18° to 22°
Far western Kentucky 20° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  20° to 22°
Northwest Tennessee  20° to 22°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:58 AM
Moonset: 11:50 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Friday Forecast:  Partly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  32° to 35°
Southeast Missouri  32° to 35°
The Missouri Bootheel  34° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  32° to 34°
Southern Illinois  33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky  34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY  34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee 35° to 40° 
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  5° to 20°   (coldest during the morning)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 5:12 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:   Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  24° to 26°
Southeast Missouri  26° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel 26° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  22° to 25°
Southern Illinois  22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  24° to 28°
Far western Kentucky 26° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 26° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  24° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee  26° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:01  AM
Moonset: 12:25 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Well, winter has definitely been hitting hard this year.  January has felt like January.

Here are the month to data temperature anomalies.  This shows you how many degrees below average temperatures have been, thus far.  Double click the image to enlarge it.

There is a blizzard warning in Louisiana today!  That might be a first.  I will have to look back through the records.  Rare, for sure.  All the way to the beach!

Check out the widespread watches and warnings.  The red in LA is the blizzard warning.

There will be snow in the Gulf of Mexico.  Amazing!

An ice storm is forecast for southern Georgia and northern Florida!  Amazing.

Here were our 7 am local temperatures.

Brrr!  Bundle the kids up at the bus stop.  Frost bite is a real concern.

Wind chill

A cold front will move through the region today.  A few clouds.  A small chance of a flurry.

This front will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air.  Temperatures will remain cold today and bitterly cold tonight/tomorrow morning.

As a matter of fact, portions of our region could flirt with zero degrees tonight.  Frigid.

There will be another front move through the region on Thursday.  Perhaps a small chance of a flurry Thursday and Thursday night.  It mostly looks dry.  No concerns.

We warm up a little bit by Friday into the weekend.

Saturday temperatures may rise into the 40s!  That sure would feel nice.

Highs for Saturday.

I am watching a series of systems late this weekend into early next week.

The latest data keeps them pretty far south.  Some data shows no precipitation in our region.  I am monitoring trends.

For now, these look to be rain.  Although, occasionally data shows a rain snow mix.  Again, for now I am just monitoring trends.

Cold weather advice graphics.

The kids will need gloves at the bus stop.

Warning signs of cold illness.

What is wind chill?  Wind chill impacts the body.  Wind chill is more important than the actual air temperature.

Outdoor pets will be cold, as well.

Livestock

Don’t forget the outdoor pets.  Water bowls will freeze.

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Be careful with space heaters

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Future-cast Radar

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

This is the GFS Model

You can see the Thursday clipper.  You can see the weekend rain potential.   Several systems to watch.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways!  Now, I have another product for you and your family.

** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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We have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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