January 2, 2025: Tracking cold and snow/ice/rain. All types of precipitatio.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? POSSIBLE. Sunday and Sunday night. I can’t rule out lightning. This is highly dependent on the track of the area of low pressure.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. I will monitor the Saturday night into Monday event. Some nuisance flooding will be possible.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NOT AT THIS TIME.

5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? YES. Tonight through next Friday night. Each night. Some days will remain below freezing, as well. Snow cover will impact high and low temperatures. They will vary.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? YES. Wind chill temperatures below 10 degrees will be possible Thursday night/Friday morning. Friday night/Saturday morning. Likely Sunday night into much of next week (on and off).

7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? YES. A weak clipper system could bring snow showers to the region Thursday night. Any accumulation from that system would be light. That would mostly be along the I64 corridor in southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky.

I am starting a live WINTER STORM blog.

See that for details on the winter storm.

LIVE WINTER STORM LINK – CLICK HERE

I am watching a winter weather event Saturday night into Monday. Some snow and ice accumulation will occur. What happens in your county will be highly dependent on the track of the system. Some areas will mostly be plain old rain. Others will have freezing rain, sleet, and snow.

8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? YES. Freezing rain and sleet will develop Saturday night into Monday. The location of the ice will depend on the track of the area of low pressure. Monitor updates, watches, and warnings. An ice storm warning will likely be issued for some counties.

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Fire weather risk level.

Thursday: 4. Low risk.
Thursday night: 3. Very low risk.
Friday: 4. Low risk.
Friday night: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Poor to fair dispersion today will improve to good to very good on Friday with both increasing mixing heights and winds. Thursday afternoon humidity will drop into the 50-60% range, with minimum values Friday of 40-50%. Widespread wintry precipitation will move into the area Saturday night through Monday morning with snow, sleet and some ice accumulation expected. Up to an inch of rain is also possible over west Kentucky.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

I am starting a live WINTER STORM blog.

See that for details on the winter storm.

LIVE WINTER STORM LINK – CLICK HERE

Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

.Long Range Video Update

Check back for this.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Thursday Forecast:

I am starting a live WINTER STORM blog.

See that for details on the winter storm.

LIVE WINTER STORM LINK – CLICK HERE

Partly sunny. Cool. A slight chance of flurries or sprinkles.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest wind at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Cold. A chance of snow showers over mainly our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 26° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 26° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 26° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. I will monitor the snow showers.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:28 AM
Moonset: 7:51 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of morning flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 36° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~36° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 35°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest wind 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:50 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 26° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 26° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:58 AM
Moonset: 9:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Some afternoon clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~36° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 36° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 22° (coldest during the am hours)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Becoming clouds. A chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Mainly over our western counties. Mainly over southeast Missouri. We will have to see how far east the precip will make it overnight. Monitor.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 35°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 23° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 26° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: East 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 22°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 10:25 AM
Moonset: 10:11 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Cold temperatures over the next couple of weeks.
2. Cold wind chill temperatures.
3. I am watching some light snow showers Thursday night over mainly over northern and northeastern counties.
4. I am watching a winter storm Saturday night into Monday. All precip types.
5. I am watching for the risk of bitterly cold air next week and the week after. Monitor updates concerning this subject.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

I am starting a live WINTER STORM blog.

See that for details on the winter storm.

LIVE WINTER STORM LINK – CLICK HERE

Live Winter Storm Blog

Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.

The Hrrr model

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

I posted these above

Here is the NAM model.

I posted these above

Let’s look farther out. The Monday and Wednesday systems.

GFS model

Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.

Red is freezing rain. Purple is sleet. Blue is snow. Green, yellow, and orange represent rain.

I posted these above

EC model

Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
Red is freezing rain. Purple is sleet. Blue is snow. Green, yellow, and orange represent rain.

I posted these above

Canadian model

Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.

Red is freezing rain. Purple is sleet. Blue is snow. Green, yellow, and orange represent rain.

I posted these above

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
.

Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Weather Prediction Center. Click here.