Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Your daily forecast into the coming weekend.
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January 2, 2018
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Intervals of clouds. Cold.   Bitterly cold.  A slight chance of flurries or light snow across the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee.
Temperatures:    MO ~  6 to 12    IL ~  6 to 12       KY ~  6 to 12
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind chill values: -8 to 5 degrees above
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: West and southwest winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chills
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Bitterly cold wind chill values

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January 3, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny. Not as cold.  A chance of a snow flurry.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 26 to 32     IL ~ 25 to 30      KY ~ 26 to 32
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind chill values: 10 to 20
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.  Winds becoming more west and northwest
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear and bitterly cold.  
Temperatures:    MO ~  5 to 10    IL ~   4 to 8       KY ~  5 to 10
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: -10 to 0
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chills
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Cold wind chill values

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January 4, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny. Cold.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 16 to 22    IL ~ 16 to 22     KY ~ 18 to 24
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 8 to 16 degrees
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold

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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  A few passing clouds.  Otherwise, clear and bitterly cold.  
Temperatures:    MO ~  4 to 10   IL ~   4 to 8      KY ~  5 to 10
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: -8 to 4 degrees above
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chills
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Cold wind chill values

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January 5, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 22 to 26     IL ~ 24 to 28      KY ~ 24 to 28
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 10 to 20
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  A few passing clouds.  Bitterly cold.
Temperatures:    MO ~  6 to 12     IL ~ 6 to 12      KY ~  6 to 12
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 10 to 20 degrees above
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans:  None

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January 6, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
Temperatures:  MO ~  28 to 34       IL ~  28 to 34       KY ~  28 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind chill values: 20 to 30
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: Variable 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A slight chance of snow after midnight.
Temperatures:    MO ~  20 to 25     IL ~  20 to 25      KY ~  20 to 25
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20% 
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered after midnight
Wind chill values: 15 to 20
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans:  No

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January 7, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy.  A  chance of a wintry mix changing to rain.  Not as cold.  This could be an all rain event.  Confidence is low.
Temperatures:  MO ~  35 to 40       IL ~  35 to 40       KY ~  35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to widespread
Wind chill values: 25 to 35
Accumulating snow or ice: Monitor updates
Winds: South wind 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Precipitation is possible.

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  A chance of rain changing to a wintry mix or snow.
Temperatures:    MO ~  35 to 40     IL ~  35 to 40      KY ~  35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50% 
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to widespread
Wind chill values: 28 to 38
Accumulating snow or ice:  Monitor updates
Winds: West at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans:  Precipitation will be possible

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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Now through next Monday:  Severe storms are not anticipated.

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Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

January 2, 2018

The daily outlook can be found at the bottom of this post.

Forecast

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

Bitterly cold air will continue.  Additional power outages are likely along with busted water pipes.

Here are the low temperatures since Saturday night (here at my place in Massac County)

Saturday   11°

Sunday   8°

Monday  1°

Tuesday  -3°

You can expect single digit readings to lower teens tonight into Friday night.

Low temperature maps

Tonight

The GFS shows temperatures in the low to mid teens.  I think it may be too warm.  I would shave a few degrees off these numbers.
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Wednesday night
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.A few weak disturbances will pass through the area over the coming days.  Flurries can’t be ruled out.  Accumulating snow appears unlikely through Saturday afternoon.

Somewhat warmer air (use that word loosely) arrives over the weekend.  This warmer air will be key to precipitation chances as a disturbance moves into our region.  Widespread precipitation may occur late Saturday night into Monday morning.  At this time, the best chance of precipitation appears to be on Sunday.

With cold air in place we may be dealing with freezing rain, sleet, and snow.  The frozen precipitation may change over to all rain before ending.

There remain significant questions about temperature profiles on Sunday.  Monitor updates.

Models typically try to push cold air out faster.  Cold air can be difficult to dislodge.  This will need to be monitored.

Here is what the GFS guidance is showing for Sunday and Sunday night.

Here is the GFS model guidance rainfall ensemble mean.  Strong signal for a system later this weekend.

The GFS is painting rain totals of 0.40″ to 0.80″.
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Future-cast radar images from 12 PM Sunday through 6 AM Monday.  Green represent rain.  Pink represents sleet and freezing rain.

This is the GFS model guidance.

As you can see, the GFS is warm and it is showing a rain event.
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The EC guidance also shows a rain event.

Here are the snow totals into Monday.    As you can see, the EC model paints snow to our north.

I will monitor the guidance trends over the coming days.
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Cold weather will generally be the rule over the coming weeks.

Here is the GFS ensemble temperature anomaly map.  Anomaly maps show you how many degrees above or below normal temperatures will be.

This is an animation and may take a little time to load (depending on your internet speed).

A LARGE chunk of the nation is expecting below normal temperatures. Those green and purple colors are below to well below normal temperatures.

The cold air just keeps coming.  We will have to wait and see just how cold.  There is a lot of snow cover to our north.  That helps keep the temperatures colder as it moves south and east.  It does not moderate as fast.
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Beau’s Winter Weather Outlook

It is important to remember that this pattern is fluid.  There is always going to be lower than normal confidence, during the winter months, for the forecast past day three or four.
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Here are my latest snow probability maps for the week ahead.

Breaking it down between snow and ice.

Just a small chance of a trace of snow on Friday.  Flurries perhaps (if that).
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The larger system arrives on Sunday.  It might end up a rain event.  Warmer air is forecast to surge northward and push the freezing line away from our area.

It is still a bit early to know for sure.  Monitor updates.

I do have a wintry mix in the forecast late Saturday night into Sunday.

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These have been updated with the latest data.

These graphics show you the % chance of one inch or more of snow and/or accumulating sleet and freezing rain.

I am monitoring Friday for flurries.  The Sunday system is larger.  Widespread rain or wintry mix is likely on Sunday.  The timing of the event will need to be monitored.  The frozen precipitation may change to all rain.  Warmer air is forecast to move into the area during the weekend (esp on Sunday).

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Next week
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We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.