Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

January 19th through January 25th

Current risk: No concerns.

Current confidence level: High confidence.

Comments:   Severe weather is not anticipated. 

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4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.  

5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees?  YES.  Tonight.  Another chance on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday night.

6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees?  YES.   This morning.  Another chance on Friday night through Monday morning.

7.  Is accumulating snow (one inch or more of snow) or ice in the forecast?  MONITOR.  I am monitoring Wednesday and Wednesday night.  The chance of accumulating snow is low. 

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I am closely monitoring Friday PM into Sunday.  Another chance of snow will enter the forecast.  For now, confidence in the track and intensity of that system is low.  Some data misses us to the south.  Monitor updates.

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If you have experienced frozen pipes with temperatures in the single digits and teens, then you could have problems.

Use these on outdoor water faucets.  They cover the faucet.  You could also wrap the nozzle in a blanket.

You can buy these at Lowe’s, Home Depot, Rural King, and other similar stores.

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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.

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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.

We will remain in the green.  No thunderstorm threats.

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Here is your bus stop forecast

No school today

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This afternoon

No school today

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What is the primary weather concern?

Cold temperatures will be the primary concern today into tomorrow morning.  Bitterly cold tonight.

Don’t forget to change your pets’ outdoor water bowls.  They will freeze over.

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video or graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

Notice the cold air this weekend.  Brrr.

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Today through Thursday night

The primary weather story will be the cold temperatures.  Tonight will once again be bitterly cold.  A bundle up night!

Tomorrow morning will be cold for the kids at the bus stop.

The good news is that Wednesday will be a tad warmer.

Wind chills will be an issue today through tomorrow morning.  Remember, wind chill is what it feels like to the human body.

Wind chill can lead to frostbite.  Bundle up.

Let me show you the wind chill values

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Let’s take a look at the wind chill values for tonight and tomorrow morning.

Tuesday morning wind chill values.  Brrrr!

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Let’s look at the actual air temperatures

Today’s high temperatures

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As mentioned above, there are no significant weather concerns today through Tuesday night.  Other than the cold temperatures.

A fast-moving system will bring increasing clouds on Tuesday night.  See the future-cast radars below.

This system will bring scattered rain showers to the region on Wednesday.  The rain may end as snow showers on Wednesday evening and night.

At this time, we do not anticipate any impacts.

Rainfall totals will range from 0.00″ to 0.10″.  Not much and not enough to break the drought.

Thursday will deliver a mix of sun and clouds.  A slight chance of an early morning snow flurry.

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Friday through Monday

A complex weather pattern will take shape over the weekend.

We have been talking about this for several days.  There is a lot of online chatter about the potential.

I continue to track this winter storm.  There will be a winter storm.  It is just a matter of track.  The track makes all the difference for our region.

The model guidance has been trending south.  Some way south.  So far south that we receive little or no precipitation.

I am a little sus about just how far south the American models are tracking this system.

The reason for this is southward push is a deeper push of cold air.  This is associated with a large cold Canadian high-pressure center.  It will be pushing into our region this weekend.  The farther the high pushes, the lower our snow chances will be.

Cold air can be dry.  That eats into the northern portions of winter storms.

This will need to be monitored.

The GFS American guidance is so far south that we receive no snow.

Again, as mentioned above, I am a bit skeptical of the GFS.  Oftentimes, these models will push way south and then trend back northward.

The more reliable EC model shows snow over our region.  A few inches.

It is still too early for an accurate forecast.

Confidence in a winter storm is high.  Confidence in the track is low.  And, the track makes all the difference for our region.

Let me show you some data.

The WPC/NOAA has us in a slight risk of snow this coming weekend.  I will be monitoring this for trends.

This is for Friday night into Saturday morning.

Then they have us at a slight risk on Saturday into Sunday morning, as well.

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This is the GFS American model.   The ensembles (which are a blend of many runs of the model)

What is the probability of three or more inches of snow?

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Here is the EC model.

What is the probability of three or more inches of snow?  It is a bit higher than the GFS model.

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As you can see, there is some model agreement that our region will experience snow.

It does appear that it will be cold enough for all snow.  Although it is still a bit early for certainties.

At this point, I do like our chances for accumulating snow, but it will still be a couple of days before confidence increases.
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It is too soon to know exact amounts.

If you have to travel from Friday to Monday, then you will want to monitor updated forecasts.  There will also be bitterly cold temperatures.  The cold is certain.  We are 100% confident in the cold temperatures.

The system has been trending south. That could mean the deeper, cold, dry air leaves parts of our region with little or no precipitation.

It is just a bit too early to make an honest forecast.

I am not quite ready to bite on the far southern track. Oftentimes, the guidance will trend south and then tug back northward.

I will know a lot more by Tuesday night and Wednesday.

An accurate snow totals forecast is usually made 24 to 48 hours in advance.

In the 48 to 72 hour range, we typically start to hone in on precipitation placement and broader details.

Beyond 72 hours, we start to talk about the generalities. The possibilities.

That is how snow forecasts in our region work.

For now, monitor updated forecasts from your trusted weather sources.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?

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Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.