Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  POSSIBLE.  Gusty winds tonight.   

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? YES.   Wind chill values will be bitterly cold over the coming days.  Occasionally, dropping below zero.

Double click image to enlarge it.

 

7.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  POSSIBLE.  Some snow showers in the region today.  Mainly over KY/TN.  A light dusting possible.

I am monitoring a clipper system Thursday/Thursday night.  I am watching another system next Sunday/Monday.  It is too early to know if this will be snow or ice or rain.  Monitor updates over the coming days.

8.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast?  NOT AT THIS TIME.    

 

.

.

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
.

.

48-hour precipitation outlook.
.

Notes:

THE FORECAST WILL TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll further down to see the region by region forecast.

—>  Note.  A wide range of temperatures across the region over the coming days.  See the hand written area by area forecast farther down in this blow update.

.

Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

.

A quick glance.  48-hour forecast Graphics

.

Sunday Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of snow showers during the morning hours.  Mainly over KY/TN.  Falling temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation:   Mainly during the morning.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 20° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20° to 22°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 15°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Cold.  Icy roadways where snow occurs.  Patchy snow showers.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:06 PM
.

Sunday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. BItterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri   0° to 5°
Southeast Missouri   8° to 12°
The Missouri Bootheel   9° to 12°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois     -2° to 5°
Southern Illinois   4° to 8°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)   5° to 10°
Far western Kentucky   6° to 10°
The Pennyrile area of western KY   6° to 10°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  5° to 10°
Northwest Tennessee   8° to 10°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° below to 5° above  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:02 PM
Moonset: 10:10 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

.

Monday Forecast:  Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 18° to 22°
Far western Kentucky ~ 18° to 22°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 18° to 22°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 18° to 22°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° below to 15°  above (coldest before noon)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Cold
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 5:07 PM
.

Monday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  2° to 5°
Southeast Missouri   8° to 12°
The Missouri Bootheel   15° to 20°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois   2° to 5°
Southern Illinois   6° to 8°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)   8° to 12°
Far western Kentucky   8° to 14°
The Pennyrile area of western KY  8° to 14°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)   6° to 10°
Northwest Tennessee  12° to 15°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° below to 15° above  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:00 AM
Moonset: 10:31 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

.

Tuesday  Forecast: Some morning clouds.  Clearing.  Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 25°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 18° to 22°
Far western Kentucky ~ 20° to 25°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20° to 25°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 18° to 22°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 25°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  -5° below to 15°  above (coldest before noon)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Cold
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:08 PM
.

Tuesday  Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  8° to 10°
Southeast Missouri   10° to 12°
The Missouri Bootheel   15° to 20°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois   2° to 5°
Southern Illinois   6° to 8°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)   8° to 12°
Far western Kentucky   10° to 14°
The Pennyrile area of western KY   10° to 14°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)   6° to 10°
Northwest Tennessee   12° to 15°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° below to 15° above  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:
Moonset: 10:54 AM
The phase of the moon:   Last Quarter

.

Wednesday  Forecast: Partly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  32° to 35°
Southeast Missouri  32° to 35°
The Missouri Bootheel  32° to 35°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  32° to 35°
Southern Illinois  32° to 35°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  32° to 35°
Far western Kentucky  32° to 35°
The Pennyrile area of western KY  32° to 35°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  32° to 35°
Northwest Tennessee 32° to 35° 
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  20° below to 30°   
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Cold
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 5:09 PM
.

Wednesday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri  20° to 25°
Southeast Missouri  20° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel 20° to 25°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois  20° to 25°
Southern Illinois  20° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties)  20° to 25°
Far western Kentucky 20° to 25°
The Pennyrile area of western KY 20° to 25°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border)  20° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee  20° to 25°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° below to 20° above  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:57 AM
Moonset: 11:20 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Good morning, everyone.

Some of you are waking up to snow!

Radar at 8 am.  Notice the heavier snow across eastern KY.  The purple colors.

Check out all the advisories.  A lot of those light blue colors are cold weather advisories.

Eastern Kentucky has winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings.

Here is a photo from Murray, Kentucky.

We forecasted snow last night for the overnight hours into the morning hours.  Scattered dusting to one inch.

Murray received 1/2″ of fresh snow.

This snow event will be heavier as you travel to central and eastern Kentucky.

A cold weather advisory blankets portions of our region.  It will be cold area-wide.  Even outside of the advisory.

Brrr

The kids will need to bundle up at the bus stop.  Frost bite is a real concern.  Use care.

Let me show you some of the low temperature forecasts.  It can be locally colder.

Tomorrow morning

Tuesday morning

Wednesday morning

Thursday morning

Brrrr

Bundle up.  Winter is not letting up over the coming days.

Cold weather advice graphics.

The kids will need gloves at the bus stop.

Warning signs of cold illness.

What is wind chill?  Wind chill impacts the body.  Wind chill is more important than the actual air temperature.

Outdoor pets will be cold, as well.

Livestock

Don’t forget the outdoor pets.  Water bowls will freeze.

The cold will moderate a bit by Wednesday with temperatures warming into the 30s!

I am watching a fast moving clipper system Thursday and Thursday night.  That could bring some showers or snow showers.

Confidence in that is low, for now.  I will know a bit more tomorrow.

It may impact our eastern counties and leave our western counties dry.  Again, low confidence.  I am watching trends.

Here is some model guidance showing that clipper.  Blue is snow.  This is Thursday night.  The track will be key.

As always, I will be on top of it.

Another system could impact the region by Sunday and Monday.  This one might be warmer.  If the track is north of us, then we will have rain.  If it tracks farther south then rain or snow.

Here is what it looks like on the GEFS ensembles.

The more squares that agree, the higher the confidence in the final outcome.  It is mixed right now.  Some data shows rain.  Some data shows snow.  I can say this, more squares show rain vs snow.  I am monitoring trends.  Long way out for details.

Stay warm!

.

.

.

Be careful with space heaters

.

Future-cast Radar

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

This is the Hrrr Model

Snow showers this morning will move off to the east.

.

.

.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

.

..

.

.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

.

.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
.

Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways!  Now, I have another product for you and your family.

** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
.

We have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

.

WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
.

.

More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

.

.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.

.

Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson

.