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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Yes. Wednesday night into Friday night.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? Yes. Rain may end as light snow or a wintry mix Wednesday afternoon and evening. There may be slick road conditions. Black ice is possible. Temperatures will rapidly fall behind the cold front Wednesday afternoon.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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January 19, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of rain. Isolated thunder possible. Rain may change to a wintry mix during the afternoon and evening. Falling temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous over the southern two thirds of the region. Northern counties will have less precipitation.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° / SE MO 36° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 36° to 40° / South IL 36° to 42° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° / West KY 42° to 45° / NW TN 43° to 46°
Winds will be from the: Becoming north at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor the risk of icy roadways late in the day and especially tonight.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:06 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Evening clouds with a chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow showers. Decreasing clouds. Sharply colder. Icy road conditions will be possible in some counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous early
Timing of the rain: Before midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 14° to 16° / SE MO 8° to 14° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 7° to 14° / South IL 12° to 15° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10° to 14° / West KY 12° to 15° / NW TN 14° to 16°
Winds will be from the: North 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° to 10°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind-chill values. Monitor the chance of black ice and icy road conditions.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:48 PM
Moonset: 8:31 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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January 20, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° / SE MO 20° to 24° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 20° to 24° / South IL 24° to 28° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 25° / West KY 23° to 26° / NW TN 24° to 26°
Winds will be from the: North 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:07 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 14° to 16° / SE MO 8° to 12° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 8° to 12° / South IL 12° to 14° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 12° to 14° / West KY 13° to 16° / NW TN 14° to 16°
Winds will be from the: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 8°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind-chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:51 PM
Moonset: 9:03 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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January 21, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 25° to 30° / SE MO 24° to 28° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 24° to 28° / South IL 25° to 30° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° / West KY 25° to 30° / NW TN 25° to 30°
Winds will be from the: North 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:07 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 15° to 20° / SE MO 14° to 18° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 14° to 18° / South IL 15° to 20° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 15° to 20° / West KY 15° to 20° / NW TN 15° to 20°
Winds will be from the: North 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:53 PM
Moonset: 9:32 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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January 22, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° / SE MO 35° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 35° to 40° / South IL 35° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 40° / West KY 35° to 40° / NW TN 36° to 40°
Winds will be from the: West 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:09 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 25° / SE MO 20° to 22° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 20° to 22° / South IL 20° to 24° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 24° / West KY 20° to 25° / NW TN 20° to 25°
Winds will be from the: North 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:57 PM
Moonset: 9:59 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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January 23, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° / SE MO 35° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 35° to 40° / South IL 35° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 40° / West KY 35° to 40° / NW TN 36° to 40°
Winds will be from the: West 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 5:10 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 25° / SE MO 20° to 22° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 20° to 22° / South IL 20° to 24° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 24° / West KY 20° to 25° / NW TN 20° to 25°
Winds will be from the: North 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:01 PM
Moonset: 10:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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January 24, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 45° / SE MO 40° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 45° / South IL 40° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° / West KY 40° to 45° / NW TN 40° to 45°
Winds will be from the: Southwest wind 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 5:11 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 35° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 25° to 30° / South IL 25° to 30° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 30° to 35°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:
Moonset: 10:51 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through January 28th: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Arctic cold front sweeps through the region today.
- Rain may end as a wintry mix Wednesday afternoon and evening.
- Bitterly cold air Wednesday night into Friday.
- Dry and cold Saturday into Monday.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
The big weather story today is going to be an arctic cold front that sweeps across the region from north to south. Temperatures will rapidly fall behind the cold front.
You can see that on the Hrrr model. This is the temperature forecast.
There will be quite a bit of lift ahead and behind the front. This will help trigger widespread showers and possibly even a rumble of thunder. As the colder air arrives, the rain will mix with and change to freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Some light accumulation is possible.
You can see that happening on the Hrrr model guidance. Green is rain. Blue is snow. Purple and red are a wintry mix.
The bigger concern will be moisture on roadways as temperatures rapidly fall into the teens and twenties. Moisture could freeze and cause black ice.
Any wintry mix would increase the risk of icy roadways late Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night and Thursday. Use care if you have travel plans.
Models do not show much in the way of snow and ice accumulation. Just a little. Enough to cause some icy roadways in some areas.
I would prefer you focus on the impact portion of the forecast and not totals. The impact will be black ice and icy patches on area roadways.
Bitterly cold air will settle into the region Wednesday night. Lows by Thursday morning will drop into the upper single digits north to lower and middle teens south.
The cold air will stick around into the weekend with dry conditions.
I am monitoring next Tuesday for a chance of rain or a mix. Guidance is not in agreement on the subject, yet. I entered a low-end probability for now.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click the images to enlarge them.
Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.
This is an average for the region.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers January 19th through January 25th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers January 26th through February 1st
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers February 1st through February 14th
The next update for these two graphics will be Tuesday after 9 AM.
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
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April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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