Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families.  You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.

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Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.

They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.

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I have used Fluff Cupcakes, during Thanksgiving and Christmas, for the last couple of years.   I can tell you that the cupcakes are delicious.  Be sure and contact Tracy and place your order.  Birthdays, holidays, or just because!  Visit them on Facebook at this link – click here

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I have launched a new weather texting service!  Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.

Weather Talk is a monthly subscription texting (and more) service.  Supporting this helps cover the daily costs (average monthly costs are $700+) or all of the data, my time, and the Shadow Angel Foundation.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.  You can sign up and opt out of the text messages, as well.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three.  These are found behind the Personal Notification Settings on the weathertalk.com page.

Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Winter Weather Outlook tab.

Fresh update with new graphics.  Tracking multiple precipitation events.  Busy busy.

 

This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Low temperatures may occur early in the night.  Rising temperatures late.  Increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms.  Isolated early and then perhaps becoming widespread late tonight.  A few heavy downpours possible.  Well above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes:     
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 80%  IL ~ 80%   KY ~ 100%   TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widespread
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B (especially as we move later into the night).  Early evening will have a few scattered showers.  Widespread coverage late tonight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 44 to 48  IL ~ 44 to 48   KY ~ 44 to 48  TN ~  45 to 50
Winds: East winds at 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:  N/A
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunset will be at 5:04 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 11:41 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:54 a.m.  Moon Stage:  Waning Gibbous

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January 19, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Precipitation should be more widespread east of the Mississippi River.  A few downpours, especially over Kentucky and Tennessee.  Areas with standing water might have a few issues if heavy rain develops.  Well above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Sporadic lightning.  Isolated flood risk.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 70%   KY ~ 70%   TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widespread before 1 pm.  Scattered after 1 pm.  Highest coverage might end up east of the Mississippi River.  
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 60  IL ~  55 to 60  KY ~ 55 to 60  TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: East and southeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
Wind Chill when applicable: N/A
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 7:05  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:06 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 1
Moonrise will be at –:–  and moonset will be at 11:25 a.m.  Last Quarter

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance for showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder.  Mainly before 11 pm.  Scattered after 11 pm.  Well above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes:
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 60%   KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60% (all areas 30% to 40% after 11 pm)
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps widespread early.  Tapering as the evening and night wears on.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 52  IL ~ 46 to 50    KY ~ 48 to 52  TN ~ 50 to 52
Winds: Southwest winds at 3 to 6 mph
Wind Chill when applicable: N/A
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at –:–  and moonset will be at 11:25 a.m.  Last Quarter

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January 20, 2017
Friday Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy.  Mild with well above normal temperatures.  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~10 %   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 62 to 66  IL ~ 62 to 66    KY ~  64 to 68    TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts t0 25 mph
Wind Chill when applicable: N/A
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 7:04  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:07 p.m.
UV Index: 2 to 3
Moonrise will be at 12:36 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:57 a.m.  Waning Crescent.

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.   Well above normal temperatures.  Will need to monitor fog chances.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Will monitor fog chances.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes:
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 54  IL ~ 48 to 54    KY ~ 48 to 54    TN ~ 50 to 54
Winds: South at  6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:  N/A
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 12:36 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:57 a.m.  Waning Crescent.

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January 21, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details:
Forecast: Perhaps some morning fog.  Warm.  Increasing clouds.  A chance for spotty showers.  Well above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Morning fog possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes     
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~65 to 70  IL ~ 65 to 70    KY ~ 65 to 70    TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds:  South and southeast at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable: N/A
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 7:03  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:08 p.m.
UV Index: 1 to 2
Moonrise will be at 1:31 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:31 p.m.  Waning Crescent

Saturday Night Forecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Well above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes:
What is the chance of precipitation?  40% before 11 pm and then after 11 pm MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%   KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Increasing coverage to numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 55  IL ~ 50 to 55    KY ~ 50 to 55   TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable: N/A
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 1:31 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:31 p.m.  Waning Crescent

January 22, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Showers likely.  Breezy.  Breezy, at times.  Well above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%  IL ~ 70%   KY ~ 70%   TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 64  IL ~  58 to 64  KY ~ 58 to 64   TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: Variable winds at 8 to 16 mph and gusty.
Wind Chill when applicable: N/A
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Sunrise will be at 7:03  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:09 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 1
Moonrise will be at 2:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:03 p.m.  Waning Crescent

Sunday Night Forecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Showers possible.  Well above normal temperatures.  Breezy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  Unlikely.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 40%   KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low..  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 44 to 48   IL ~ 44 to 48   KY ~ 44 to 48    TN ~ 44 to 48
Winds:  West and northwest at 15 to 25 mph.  Gusty.
Wind Chill when applicable: N/A
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 2:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:03 p.m.  Waning Crescent

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January 23, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy.  Breezy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low..  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 44 to 50   IL ~ 44 to 50   KY ~ 44 to 50    TN ~ 44 to 50
Winds:  North and northwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind Chill when applicable:  N/A
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 7:02  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:10 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 1
Moonrise will be at 3:19 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:48 p.m.  Waning Crescent

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible
Temperatures:  MO ~ 40 to 45    IL ~ 40 to 45    KY ~ 40 to 45   TN ~ 42 to 46
Winds:  North and northwest at 5 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:  N/A
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Moonrise will be at 3:19 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:48 p.m.  Waning Crescent

More information on the UV index.  Click her

The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.  Visit their website here.  Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. 

Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

Winter weather outlooks will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Winter Weather Outlook tab.  These are updated at least twice each week.

To register and receive the winter weather outlooks, please visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted into text option three.  The text options are found under the Personal Notification Settings tab on the weathertalk.com website.

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How much rain is expected over the coming days?

These totals from now through Monday evening.

Click to enlarge these images from weatherbell.com

Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Wednesday night into Friday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Lightning possible.

Saturday into Sunday night:  Some storms are possible.  At this time, severe weather appears unlikely.  Monitor updates.

 

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter months you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link—

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar

 

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. 

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

 

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions