January 18, 2024: Freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Freezing fog possible later today and tonight. Dangerous driving conditions for some. Use care.

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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

There are questions about the northern row or so of counties in the advisory. It is possible that the bulk of the precip misses that area. Those counties were added to buffer, just in case.

Our deadliest winter weather events are light freezing drizzle and light freezing rain events. It was wise of school systems to close today. Even a threat of precipitation like this should cause concern for both students and employees. Let’s keep our students and employees safe!

Keep in mind, freezing fog could also form just about anywhere. That could add ice to surfaces, as well. Be careful. What looks wet could be ice.

Also, light snow is possible today and tonight along the cold front approaching from the west northwest. That is a separate weather system. That could drop 0 to 1″ of fresh snow.

Let’s look at this future-cast radar. What radar might look like today. This is a model and models are never exact. Take the general idea from this.

Models don’t always handle freezing drizzle all that well. There could be patchy light precip in other areas not shown by this future-cast radar. Notice the snow moving in from the northwest along the cold front, as well. Again, all of this is light but impacts (where precip occus) will be a concern. Surfaces are very cold.

Two views.

The Hrrr model

The RRFS model

NWS Paducah Winter Weather Graphics

Memphis, Tennessee NWS graphics for our southern counties

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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48-hour forecast

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Thursday to Thursday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? NO.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. Wet weather arrives next week. I will monitor totals. Since the ground is frozen, there could be some issues.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Yes. Today. Thursday night into Sunday.

6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Yes. A wintry mix is likely Thursday and Thursday night. This is a light event, but could cause icy roads to redevelop. Snow showers are possible Friday morning, as well. Freezing fog possible, as well.

7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? Possible. A wintry mix is likely Thursday and Thursday night. Most likely light, but could cause icy roads to redevelop.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.

There will be an increased house fire risk this weekend into next week. This is because of cold temperatures.

Thursday: 3. Very low risk.
Thursday night: 4. Low risk.
Friday: 4. Low risk.
Friday night. 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

A wintry mix of light freezing rain and snow is possible this afternoon, mainly across western Kentucky. Some light snow is possible tonight as well. Bitterly cold arctic air invades the region again through late week with sub zero wind chills Friday morning, then again Friday night into Saturday morning. We finally moderate back to well above freezing next week. It may be a very wet week though with multiple rain chances.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

Thursday, January 18, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of a wintry mix. Light accumulation, but even light amounts could cause some travel issues. Freezing rain, freezing drizzle, sleet, light snow, and freezing fog possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered west northwest and more numerous south and east.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways if snow and a wintry mix develops.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:03 PM .
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of light snow. Freezing fog possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10° to 12°
Southeast Missouri ~ 12° to 15°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 14° to 16°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 8° to 12°
Southern Illinois ~ 12° to 14°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 13° to 16°
Far western Kentucky ~ 14° to 18°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 16° to 20°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 14° to 16°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 16° to 20°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming west northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold. Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B because of cold and icy roadways.
Moonrise: 11:29 AM
Moonset: 12:28 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Friday, January 19, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of light snow. Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. Mainly before 12 PM.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 16° to 18°
Southeast Missouri ~ 16° to 18°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 18° to 20°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 16° to 18°
Southern Illinois ~ 16° to 18°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 16° to 18°
Far western Kentucky ~ 16° to 20°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 16° to 18°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 16° to 20°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -15° to 0°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold. Icy roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 5:05 PM .
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 9%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0° to 5°
Southeast Missouri ~ 2° to 5°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 4° to 6°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0° to 5°
Southern Illinois ~ 2° to 4°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 3° to 6°
Far western Kentucky ~ 3° to 6°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 3° to 6°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 3° to 6°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 2° to 5°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -20° to -5°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold. Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B because of cold and icy roadways.
Moonrise: 12:00 PM
Moonset: 1:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Saturday, January 20, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 14° to 18°
Southeast Missouri ~ 16° to 18°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 18° to 20°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 16° to 18°
Southern Illinois ~ 16° to 18°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 16° to 18°
Far western Kentucky ~ 16° to 20°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 16° to 18°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 16° to 20°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -15° to 0°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 5:05 PM .
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 9%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~2° to 5°
Southeast Missouri ~ 2° to 5°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 4° to 6°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 2° to 5°
Southern Illinois ~ 2° to 4°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 3° to 6°
Far western Kentucky ~ 3° to 6°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 3° to 6°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 3° to 6°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 2° to 5°
Winds will be from this direction: North 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -15° to 0°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B because of cold
Moonrise: 12:30 PM
Moonset: 2:46 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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Weather Highlights

1. Freezing rain, sleet, snow, and freezing drizzle possible today. Not everywhere, but scattered.
2. Impacts will be ice covered surfaces.
3. Be careful with that first step. What looks wet could be pure ice. You could fall.
4. Freezing fog could cause additional icy surfaces.
5. Bitterly cold air returns tonight into the weekend.
6. Warming trend next week. Wet next week.

Weather advice:

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Use care in the cold weather. Frost bite is a concern.

Slow down, as always, on snow covered roadways. Give yourself extra time (for those areas with snow).

Forecast Discussion

Good day, everyone.

Well, one last swing at winter weather before warmer air arrives!

That is the GREAT news. This is about over. We just have to get through today, tomorrow, Saturday, and Sunday.

A reinforcing shot of bitterly cold air arrives tonight into tomorrow. That lingers into Sunday. Single digits return to the forecast Friday and Saturday night. Below zero wind chills.

Pipe busting cold. Ack!

This has certainly been a long duration cold event. Rare to have something like this happen locally. Especially without a deep snow pack.

See the graphics at the top of the page for today’s hazards. That covers it.

There remain questions about how far north freezing drizzle and precip will occur today. The chances are higher south southeast and east. The chances are lower west north and northwest.

Freezing fog, however, could develop just about anywhere in the region this afternoon and tonight. That could also coat surfaces with a thin glaze of ice.

The focus of this event is not on amounts. It is on impact. Surfaces are cold. Untreated surfaces will rapidly freeze over. This will create very dangerous driving and walking conditions. These are the types of events where people get injured or worse.

It was wise of schools, in the advisory zone, to cancel. Freezing rain is not something you want your students or teachers to deal with.

Our highest death toll events are from light freezing drizzle and freezing rain systems.

The GREAT news is that warmer air begins to filter back into the region Monday of next week. Next week looks much milder. Wetter, as well.

I am tracking several rain chances in the long range.

I am watching around the second week of February for another cold shot. Long way off.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Tornado Probability Outlook

Large Hail Probability Outlook

High wind Probability Outlook

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

This animation is the HRRR Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Double click images to enlarge them. Blue is snow. Pink is a wintry mix. Green is rain.

This animation is the RRFS Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

This animation is the GFS Model.

Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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