Updated at 2 PM, January 18, 2018
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January 18, 2018
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 18 to 24 IL ~ 18 to 24 KY ~ 18 to 24
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 15 to 20
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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January 19, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Patchy fog possible. Not as cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 36 to 42 KY ~ 36 to 42
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Wind chill values: 35 to 40
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear early. A few clouds after midnight. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 30 to 35 IL ~ 30 to 35 KY ~ 30 to 35
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 5% IL ~ 5% KY ~ 5% TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. I can’t completely rule out some drizzle towards morning
Wind chill values: 30 to 35
Accumulating snow or ice: Unlikely
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps fog with low visibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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January 20, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Fog possible. Cloudy. Patchy drizzle possible. Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 52 IL ~ 44 top 48 over the snow pack. 46 to 52 outside the snow pack area. KY ~ 44 to 48 over the snow pack area.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph. Gusty winds possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways. Lower visibility in fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radar and fog conditions.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Fog possible. Patchy drizzle.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated or patchy
Wind chill values: 40 to 45
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Have a plan B
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January 21, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Breezy. A few spotty showers are possible. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. If fog develops, then lower visibility possible
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Increasing rain chances overnight. A thunderstorm possible, especially over the southern half of the region (Bootheel into west KY/TN). Gusty winds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 100% (mostly late) IL ~ 90% (mostly late) KY ~ 90% (mostly late) TN ~ 100% (mostly late)
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming widespread.
Wind chill values: 36 to 44
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South wind at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Winds becoming southwest.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Most likely no, but monitor updated forecasts.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Have a plan B
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January 22, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy the first half of the day and then some clearing possible. Breezy. Showers possible before 2 PM. Rain should be ending west to east.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 52 IL ~ 46 to 52 KY ~ 46 to 52
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% before 10 am IL ~ 50% before 10 am KY ~ 60% first half of the day TN ~ 60% first part of the day
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread early in the morning. Ending west to east.
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: Winds becoming west and southwest at 14 to 25 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways. Perhaps lightning early in the morning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clearing. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 30 to 35 IL ~ 30 to 35 KY ~ 30 to 35
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 5% TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 25 to 32
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: West and southwest at 8 to 16 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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January 23, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 45 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: West wind 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds, otherwise mostly clear. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 30 to 35 IL ~ 30 to 35 KY ~ 30 to 35
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 5% TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind chill values: 25 to 35
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: West at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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January 24, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny morning. Perhaps some afternoon clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 45 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: N0
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 38 IL ~ 34 to 38 KY ~ 34 to 38
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Monitor updates
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January 25, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A shower possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 45 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 35 to 40 IL ~ 35 to 40 KY ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind chill values:
Accumulating snow or ice:
Winds: Southwest and west at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Monitor updates
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Tonight through next Tuesday: Winter precipitation is not anticipated.
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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Sunday and Sunday night: Thunderstorms will be possible. Lightning would be the main concern. Perhaps some gusty winds. Severe weather is not anticipated.
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January 18, 2018
The daily outlook can be found at the bottom of this post.
Forecast
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link.
Short term outlook through Saturday night:
Finally, a warming trend will develop over the coming 72 hours.
Many of you woke up to single digit readings, once again. It has certainly been a cold January (December was also cold). It has been awhile since we have experienced a winter like this (esp the sustained cold).
Here are the January anomalies. How many degrees above or below normal have temperatures been each day.
Quite amazing to have these big numbers so many days out of the month.
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For snow lovers, all good things must come to an end. For those who do not like snow, you will like my forecast.
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Lows tonight will dip back into the teens. Some of the melting today will turn to black ice tonight. Black ice is simply moisture that refreezes on surfaces.
We will have a some sunshine on Friday, as well. Temperatures will warm even more. You can expect widespread middle to upper 30’s on Friday. A few locations may briefly touch the 40 degree mark.
Dry weather is anticipated through Friday night.
We warm even more Friday night into Saturday. With this warm up will come a chance for advection fog. The ground is cold. The snow is cold, of course. Warmer air moving over the cold ground and snow pack will likely produce areas of dense fog. Keep this in mind as we move into Friday night and Saturday.
Clouds will begin to increase Friday night into Saturday, as well. Patchy light drizzle is a possibility Saturday and Saturday night. I was going to include it in Friday night’s forecast, as well, but it appears Friday night may remain dry.
I will go ahead and insert a slight chance wording into the Friday night forecast, but I think the chances are higher as we move into Saturday/Saturday night.
The good news is that we will remain above freezing Saturday into Monday morning.
Lows Friday night will dip into the 30’s. Highs on Saturday will likely climb into the middle to upper 40’s. I can’t rule out a few reporting stations touching the 50 degree mark for a brief period of time.
Saturday night lows may remain in the 40!
We could have some gusty winds beginning on Friday or Friday night and continuing into Monday. Winds will occasionally gust up into the 20 to 30 mph range. Higher gusts possible.
The wind will be because of the tightening pressure gradient across the region between the high pressure to our south and the low pressure to our north.
Pressure gradient is one of the factors when forecasting wind speed.
Sunday into Monday
An area of low pressure will develop in the Central United States on Saturday into Sunday. This system will track well to our north. That places us in the warm sector of the system. Warm sector means rain and not snow. It could also mean gusty winds and a clap of thunder.
Severe weather ingredients for Sunday night and Monday morning.
- Strong wind fields. Yes.
- Instability. Unlikely or very low
- High dew points. Unlikely (marginal, at best)
- Lift. Yes.
A couple of ingredients are there for severe weather, but it appears the lack of instability and higher dew points will suppress the chances of severe thunderstorms.
With that said, I would encourage you to monitor updates.
Winds will be quite gusty on Sunday into Monday. Gusts above 30 mph are likely.
The highest rain chances will occur on Sunday evening into Monday morning. This is when the cold front should move across our region from west to east.
Here is the GFS future-cast radar. This is what radar MIGHT look like as we move into Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.
The GFS may be a tad too fast with the timing. I am thinking Sunday evening into Monday morning. Rain ending on Monday morning or early afternoon.
I have a feeling our snow will be but a memory by Sunday night and Monday. Snow lovers will have to wait a bit until snow chances return.
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Rainfall totals of 0.30″ to 0.60″ are anticipated. Locally higher totals are likely. This is especially true if thunderstorms form and across southeast Missouri.
Here are my rainfall probability numbers. What is the % chance of X amount of rain falling.
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Southeast Missouri
Totals across southeast Missouri may end up a bit heavier than the rest of the area.
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Southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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With the recent heavy snow pack we could have some water issues in a few locations. Let’s keep an eye on it. This does not appear to be a large flash flood event. Just some pockets of problems could occur.
The snow will likely have melted by the time the line of showers and thunderstorms arrive.
I am watching one or two systems for the middle and end of next week. Right now projections are for rain. It is a bit early for certainties. Monitor updates.
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Beau’s Winter Weather Outlook
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I am currently not tracking any winter weather concerns.
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We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. This will usually fix any problems.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
National interactive radar: Click this link.
