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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? NO.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? POSSIBLE. Gusty winds tonight.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? YES. Saturday night into at least the middle of next week. Occasionally, below zero. Bitterly cold.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? POSSIBLE. I am monitoring the rain on Saturday. It could end as snow showers Saturday into Sunday. Otherwise, I am watching a couple of systems late next week, but they may be too far south to bring us snow or ice. Confidence remains low. Monitor.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. Monitor updates concerning a southern system on Thursday.
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Field and Brush Fire weather risk level.
Friday: 4. Low risk.
Friday night: 4. Low risk.
Saturday: 4. Low risk.
Saturday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Warmer temperatures are expected today with afternoon relative humidity between 40 and 70 percent. A cold front will approach from the west tonight bringing increasing chances of rainfall to the region tonight into Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts of around a half to three quarters of an inch are expected. The cold front will bring much colder temperatures and drier air to the region for the rest of the weekend and into next week. Afternoon RHs below 30% are possible Monday and Tuesday, especially in the southern half of the Quad State.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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Notes:
THE FORECAST WILL TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll further down to see the region by region forecast.
—> Note. A wide range of temperatures across the region over the coming days. See the hand written area by area forecast farther down in this blow update.
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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook
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A quick glance. 48-hour forecast Graphics
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Friday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of rain. Mainly during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (mainly over SE MO in the afternoon)
Timing of the precipitation: After 3 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30° during the morning.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:04 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
Southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 30°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west southwest at 15 to 35 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 9:02 PM
Moonset: 9:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Falling temperatures. Rain may end as snow flurries or snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainy before 2 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~44° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Watch for snow showers. A dusting or so possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates. Showers are possible.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:05 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers. A dusting to 1/2″ of snow in the heavier snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 12° to 14°
Southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20° to 22°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 12° to 15°
Southern Illinois ~ 14° to 18°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 18° to 22°
Far western Kentucky ~ 18° to 22°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20° to 22°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20° to 22°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20° to 22°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold. Icy roads where snow accumulates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:02 PM
Moonset: 9:49 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of snow showers, A dusting or so possible in a few spots.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 20° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20° to 22°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: North 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold. Icy roadways where snow occurs. Patchy snow showers.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:06 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. BItterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0° to 5°
Southeast Missouri ~ 8° to 12°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 12° to 14°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ -2° to 5°
Southern Illinois ~ 4° to 8°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 5° to 10°
Far western Kentucky ~ 5° to 10°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 5° to 10°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 5° to 10°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 5° to 10°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:02 PM
Moonset: 10:10 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 18° to 22°
Far western Kentucky ~ 18° to 22°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 18° to 22°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 18° to 22°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 5:07 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 2° to 5°
Southeast Missouri ~ 8° to 12°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 12° to 15°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0° to 5°
Southern Illinois ~ 4° to 8°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 5° to 10°
Far western Kentucky ~ 5° to 10°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 5° to 10°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 5° to 10°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10° to 15°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:00 AM
Moonset: 10:31 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion
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- Warming trend today and Friday.
- Showers Friday afternoon and night. Ending Saturday. It may end as snow showers. Snow showers could produce a dusting in spots.
- Bitterly cold air returns Saturday night into much of next week. Likely the coldest air of the winter season.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
A decent day is on tap for the region.
It will be windy, at times. Temperatures mostly in the 50s. Not bad.
Clouds will increase this afternoon and evening. That will bring a chance of showers to the region. Beginning late this afternoon over southeast Missouri. Spreading eastward this evening and tonight.
I do expect widespread showers on radar. Nothing severe. Nothing too heavy.
Rainfall totals
As you can see, not a lot of rain. Perhaps some pockets of half an inch.
A strong cold front passes through the region on Saturday. Bitterly cold air follows. See graphics below.
This could end up being the coldest air of the winter season.
That will arrive Saturday night and continue into the middle of next week.
Here is a graphic from the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS
Double click on the graphic to make it larger.
Temperatures will dip into the single digits and teens by Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday night. Highs in some locations will remain in the teens and twenties.
Wind chill temperatures will dip below zero, at times. Bitterly cold temperatures.
You can see that cold air arriving on the GFS model. Sweeping in from the northwest.
This graphic shows actual air temperatures. Wind chill values will be even colder.
Double click animations to enlarge them.
Let me show you some of those low temperatures. Cold. Cold. Cold.
You can see our air next week will come straight from the arctic circle
I need to ask the graphics people to add Poplar Bluff on here.
Their temp will be similar to Cape Girardeau (perhaps a degree or two higher).
Sunday morning
Sunday highs
Monday morning
Monday afternoon
Tuesday morning
Tuesday highs
Wednesday morning
So, as you can see. It is going to be bitterly cold over the coming days.
Today will be the nicest day.
A few snow flurries are possible this weekend. We are not forecasting a tracking snow. Just some light snow flurries or snow showers here and there. A dusting to 1/2″ of snow possible, esp over Kentucky.
I continue to watch mid to late next week. One model shows a winter storm. Nine models show no winter storm.
So, for now…I am just watching trends in the guidance. No snow or ice in the current forecast. Continue to monitor updates. Let’s see what the charts show over the coming days.
Here are all of the ensembles. The idea behind ensembles is the more squares that match the higher the chance of it happening.
Very few squares show a snow or ice storm here next Thursday. Thus, I will watch the charts and leave the forecast dry, for now.
The GFS is the main model showing snow next Thursday or so.
A few squares show that.
Future-cast Radar
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
This is the NAM 3K model
It shows our weekend rain event. Most of the rain will fall tonight and tomorrow morning. A brief quick moving system.
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Be careful with space heaters
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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