Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Precipitation totals will be light Thursday into Friday, but it would not take much to cause fresh travel issues. Esp if freezing rain and sleet develops.
There will be two areas of precipitation. One north. One south southeast. Some areas in the middle may receive little precipitation.
Here are some maps.
There are some differences in these two high resolution models, but I wanted to give you the general idea of placement. It won’t be exact.
NAM model snow totals
Hrrr model snow totals
NAM model freezing rain totals
Hrrr model freezing rain totals.
The Memphis, Tennessee NWS posted these graphics
The Paducah, Kentucky NWS has not posted any maps like this.
.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
If you have not subscribed to my YouTube Channel then click on this link and it will take you to my videos.
Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.
48-hour forecast
.
.
Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? NO.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Yes. Today. Thursday night into Sunday.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Yes. A wintry mix is likely Thursday and Thursday night. Most likely light, but could cause icy roads to redevelop. Snow showers are possible Friday morning, as well. Accumulation will be light, but roads could become slick again.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? Possible. A wintry mix is likely Thursday and Thursday night. Most likely light, but could cause icy roads to redevelop.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
.
Fire weather risk level.
There will be an increased house fire risk this weekend into next week. This is because of cold temperatures.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday night. 4. Low risk.
Thursday: 4. Low risk.
Thursday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Temperatures will moderate today and tomorrow, before the next blast of arctic air arrives by week`s end. It will bring a chance of light wintry precipitation Thursday into Thursday night, with a return to negative wind chills to finish out the week. After that comes a warmup that will see highs rise into the 50s by the middle of next week, which is when rain comes back to the forecast as well.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
.
.
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5 to -15° early in the morning to and 10 to 20° afternoon
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B because of the cold temperaturs.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:02 PM .
.
Wednesday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 20°
Southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 20°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 18° to 20°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 20°
Southern Illinois ~ 18° to 20°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 18° to 20°
Far western Kentucky ~ 18° to 20°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 18° to 20°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 18° to 20°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 18° to 20°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B because of cold temperatures.
Moonrise: 11:01 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: First quarter
.
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of a wintry mix. Light accumulation, but even light amounts could cause some travel issues.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered west northwest and more numerous south and east.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways if snow and a wintry mix develops.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:03 PM .
.
Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of light snow.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10° to 12°
Southeast Missouri ~ 12° to 15°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 14° to 16°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 8° to 12°
Southern Illinois ~ 12° to 14°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 13° to 16°
Far western Kentucky ~ 14° to 18°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 16° to 20°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 14° to 16°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 16° to 20°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming west northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold. Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B because of cold and icy roadways.
Moonrise: 11:29 AM
Moonset: 12:28 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
.
Friday, January 19, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of light snow. Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. Mainly before 12 PM.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 16° to 18°
Southeast Missouri ~ 16° to 18°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 18° to 20°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 16° to 18°
Southern Illinois ~ 16° to 18°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 16° to 18°
Far western Kentucky ~ 16° to 18°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 18° to 22°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 16° to 18°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 16° to 18°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -15° to 0°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold. Icy roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 5:05 PM .
.
Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 9%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0° to 5°
Southeast Missouri ~ 2° to 5°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 4° to 6°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0° to 5°
Southern Illinois ~ 2° to 4°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 3° to 6°
Far western Kentucky ~ 3° to 6°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 3° to 6°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 3° to 6°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 2° to 5°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -20° to -5°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold. Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B because of cold and icy roadways.
Moonrise: 12:00 PM
Moonset: 1:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
-
- Sunshine today will help with roadways.
- Increasing chances of light freezing rain, sleet, and snow late tonight into Friday morning. Accumulation will be light, but roads could become icy again. It would not take much freezing rain or sleet to cause issues.
- Another shot of cold air arrives Thursday into Sunday.
- Warming trend begins Sunday into next week.
- Wet next week. But, milder.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Use care in the cold weather. Frost bite is a concern.
Slow down, as always, on snow covered roadways. Give yourself extra time (for those areas with snow).
Forecast Discussion
Good morning, everyone.
I finally got some sleep last night. Everything is running about two hours behind. It has been a long few weeks for your weatherman!
Today is a cold, but decent day. Sunshine will help clear some roadways as temperatures rise into the 20s.
That is the good news!
The bad news is that yet another arctic front is pushing towards the region from Canada.
This front will arrive Thursday and Thursday night. It will bring another shot of equally bitter cold air. Temperatures Friday night will dip to near zero degrees across much of the region.
Two weather systems will bring precipitation to the region. One arrives from the south. This will spread light freezing rain, sleet, and snow into the Missouri Bootheel, western Tennessee, and western Kentucky Thursday morning and afternoon.
Meanwhile, the front will arrive from northern Missouri bringing a round of snow showers across much of the region.
Snow totals of nothing to one inch will be possible Thursday into Friday.
Freezing rain and sleet totals of 0.01″ to 0.10″ will be possible.
Although these are light totals, it would not take but a hint of freezing rain and sleet to cause hazardous driving conditions.
Temperatures Thursday should pop into the lower 30s. Perhaps even middle 30s in areas without snowpack.
Then, temperatures rapidly fall Thursday night into Friday.
I do not know if the NWS will issue a winter weather advisory or not. With totals being so light, I’m not sure.
Either way, for planning purposes, you should plan on the potential of icy roadways Thursday into Friday.
Roadways are very cold. Surfaces are very cold. Even if the temperature rises briefly above freezing, there could still be issues with precipitation freezing on contact with cold surfaces.
Wind chill values Friday into Saturday will dip into the dangerous category of 0 to -20. Brrr brrr brrr.
The GREAT news is that winter is about to take an exit.
Milder air arrives next week with on and off rain chances. A wet pattern will develop.
I will watch the second week of February for colder air.
The GFS shows several rounds of rain next week into the following week.
Monday and Tuesday of next week.
Next Wednesday another wave of rain.
Next Thursday night and Friday another chance of rain on the GFS model.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
.
Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
.
Tornado Probability Outlook
.
Large Hail Probability Outlook
.
High wind Probability Outlook
.
Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
.
Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
.
.
The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
.
.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
_______________________________________
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
.
What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
.
This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them. Blue is snow. Pink is a wintry mix. Green is rain.
.
This animation is the Hrrr Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
.
This animation is the GFS Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
.
..
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
.
Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
.
.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
.
.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.
.
