Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.    

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? YES.   Saturday night into at least the middle of next week.  Occasionally, below zero.  Bitterly cold.

7.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  NOT AT THIS TIME.   I am monitoring the rain on Saturday.  It could end as snow showers.  Otherwise, I am watching a couple of system next week, but they may be too far south to bring us snow or ice.  Confidence remains low.  Monitor.

8.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast?  NOT AT THIS TIME.   

 

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Notes:

THE FORECAST WILL TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll further down to see the region by region forecast.

—>  Note.  A wide range of temperatures across the region over the coming days.  See the hand written area by area forecast farther down in this blow update.

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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

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A quick glance.  48-hour forecast Graphics

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Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny.  A bit warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 36° to 40°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20° during the morning.   
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:03 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 26° to 30°
Far western Kentucky ~ 26° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 26° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 26° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 28°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:02 PM
Moonset: 9:02 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Friday Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A chance of rain.  Mainly during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~  40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (mainly over SE MO in the afternoon)
Timing of the precipitation: After 3 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~  52° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30° during the morning.   
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:04 PM
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Friday  Night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain showers likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~  60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
Southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 30°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 35°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 9:02 PM
Moonset: 9:27 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Saturday Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Falling temperatures.  Rain may end as snow flurries or snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation:  Mainy before 2 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~44° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 35°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.  Showers are possible.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:05 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 12° to 14°
Southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20° to 22°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 12° to 15°
Southern Illinois ~ 14° to 18°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 18° to 22°
Far western Kentucky ~ 18° to 22°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20° to 22°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20° to 22°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20° to 22°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 15°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:02 PM
Moonset: 9:49 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Sunday Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of flurries,
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation:   Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 20° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20° to 22°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: North 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Cold
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:06 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. BItterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 2° to 5°
Southeast Missouri ~ 8° to 12°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 12° to 14°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0° to 5°
Southern Illinois ~ 4° to 8°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 5° to 10°
Far western Kentucky ~ 5° to 10°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 5° to 10°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 5° to 10°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 5° to 10°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° to 15°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:02 PM
Moonset: 10:10 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Monday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 18° to 22°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 18° to 22°
Far western Kentucky ~ 18° to 22°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 18° to 22°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 18° to 22°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 18° to 22°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 15°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Cold
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 5:07 PM
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Monday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear. Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 2° to 5°
Southeast Missouri ~ 8° to 12°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 12° to 14°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0° to 5°
Southern Illinois ~ 4° to 8°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 5° to 10°
Far western Kentucky ~ 5° to 10°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 5° to 10°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 5° to 10°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 5° to 10°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° to 15°  
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:00 AM
Moonset: 10:31 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Temperatures will be a bit warmer today across the region.  There will be a range of temperatures.  30s north to near 50 south!

You can see that range on this high temperature map.

Double click on images to enlarge them.

It will certainly feel nicer today than recent days.  Perhaps some of the sleet will melt.  Portions of our region are still covered in snow and ice!

The big weather story will be an arctic cold front that will push into the region Friday night and Saturday.

Rain showers will accompany the front.

Rainfall totals will be light.  The bigger story will be the bitterly cold air that follows.  Perhaps some snow flurries Saturday into Sunday, as well.

Here are the projected rainfall totals.  Give or take.

Then, a strong cold front passes through the region on Saturday.  Bitterly cold air follows. See graphics below.

This could end up being the coldest air of the winter season.

That will arrive Saturday night and continue into the middle of next week.

Here is a graphic from the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS

Double click on the graphic to make it larger.

We will dip into the single digits and teens by Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday night.  Highs in some locations will remain in the teens and twenties.

Wind chill temperatures will dip below zero, at times.   Bitterly cold temperatures.

You can see that cold air arriving on the GFS model.  Sweeping in from the northwest.

This graphic shows actual air temperatures.  Wind chill values will be even colder.

Double click animations to enlarge them.

Let me show you some of those low temperatures.  Cold. Cold. Cold.

You can see our air next week will come straight from the arctic circle

I need to ask the graphics people to add Poplar Bluff on here.

Their temp will be similar to Cape Girardeau (perhaps a degree or two higher).

Sunday morning

Monday morning

Tuesday morning

Wednesday morning

Future-cast Radar

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

This is the GFS model

It shows our weekend rain event.

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

I am watching a southern winter storm next week.

Confidence on the track remains low.  It is just too far out for an actual forecast.  I am watching trends.

Models go back and forth on the track.  Occasionally, moving it north.  Then, on other runs they pull it back south.

This is how our last winter storm started.  Way south and then trended north.

I will monitor trends.

This would be towards the middle/end of next week.

Four different models show the system.

The GFS shows it next Thursday/Friday.

The EC European model shows it hugging the Gulf Coast.

The Canadian model shows it next Tuesday/Wednesday.

The UKMET shows it next Tuesday/Wednesday.

For the time being, it is too far south to impact our region.  Monitor updates.  Long way to go for that one.

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Be careful with space heaters

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways!  Now, I have another product for you and your family.

** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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We have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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