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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Avoid extension cords with space heaters. Every year our region experiences house fires because of this.
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? NO.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Yes. Today into Wednesday. Thursday night into Sunday.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Yes. A wintry mix is likely Thursday and Thursday night. Most likely light, but could cause icy roads to redevelop.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? Possible. A wintry mix is likely Thursday and Thursday night. Most likely light, but could cause icy roads to redevelop.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Fire weather risk level.
There will be an increased house fire risk this weekend into next week. This is because of cold temperatures.
Tuesday: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday night: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday night. 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Very cold conditions will continue today, but we will at least see plenty of sunshine. Temperatures near to a little above the freezing mark are expected Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday will be mostly sunny, but cloudy skies and chances of light snow will return to the region Thursday into Thursday night, with breezy and very cold conditions Thursday night into Friday.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Becoming mostly sunny. Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 14° to 18°
Southeast Missouri ~ 16° to 18°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 16° to 20°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 14° to 18°
Southern Illinois ~ 14° to 18°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 14° to 18°
Far western Kentucky ~ 16° to 18°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 18° to 20°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 18° to 20°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 18° to 20°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B because of the cold
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:02 PM .
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 4° to 6°
Southeast Missouri ~ 4° to 6°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 4° to 8°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 4° to 6°
Southern Illinois ~ 4° to 6°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 4° to 6°
Far western Kentucky ~ 4° to 6°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 4° to 8°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 4° to 6°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 4° to 8°
Winds will be from this direction: West 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -15° to -5°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chills.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B because of the cold
Moonrise: 10:34 AM
Moonset: 11:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing crescent.
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Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 28° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 28° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5 to -15° early in the morning to and 10 to 20° afternoon
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:02 PM .
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 20°
Southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 20°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 18° to 20°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 20°
Southern Illinois ~ 18° to 20°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 18° to 20°
Far western Kentucky ~ 18° to 20°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 18° to 20°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 18° to 20°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 18° to 20°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 11:01 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: First quarter
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Thursday, January 18, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of a wintry mix.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways if snow and a wintry mix develops.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:03 PM .
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a wintry mix changing to snow.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10° to 12°
Southeast Missouri ~ 12° to 15°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 12° to 15°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 8° to 12°
Southern Illinois ~ 12° to 14°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 12° to 14°
Far western Kentucky ~ 12° to 14°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 12° to 14°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 12° to 14°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 12° to 14°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming west northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor the chance of snow.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 11:29 AM
Moonset: 12:28 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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- More cold air. Bitterly cold wind chill values. Pipe busting cold to continue into the weekend.
- Wintry mix develops Thursday. Higher chances south southeast vs north northwest.
- Another shot of cold air arrives Thursday night.
- Warming trend Sunday into next week.
- Monitoring precipitation chances around Monday/Tuesday.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Use care in the cold weather. Frost bite is a concern.
Slow down, as always, on snow covered roadways. Give yourself extra time (for those areas with snow).
Forecast Discussion
Good morning, everyone.
We are starting out the morning with pipe busting cold. Some of you are below zero this morning. Others are in the single digits. Wind chill values are very cold and frost nip and bite are a real concern for anyone outside.
6 AM Wind chill values. Brutal!
6 AM Temperatures. The nation shivers.
Zooming in on our region
Bundle up! A cold day ahead of us.
We are expecting sunshine to develop from west to east today. That could help melt some of the snow off the roadways. Even though temperatures will be cold, the sun will help.
Tonight will once again be bitterly cold area-wide. Tomorrow will be cold, but not as cold as today.
Clouds increase again tomorrow afternoon and night.
Our next storm system will arrive late Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Clouds will thicken and lower Wednesday night. Southerly winds will spread moisture northward.
A wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow will develop Thursday. The chances are higher as you travel south and southeast vs north northwest. This wintry mix will make for poor driving conditions. The roads will be very cold. What falls will stick.
There is a small chance of rain over western Tennessee and western Kentucky, before changing back to snow.
All in all, this is a light precipitation event. Enough, however, to cause new travel concerns. You will want to plan ahead Thursday into Friday morning.
Snow accumulation of less than two inches is the current forecast. Sleet and freezing rain totals will be light. Again, focus on impacts and not totals. Whatever falls could lead to slick roadways.
Bitterly cold air returns Thursday night into Saturday night. This is a new shot of cold air moving in from the arctic.
The good news is that I am forecasting warmer conditions Sunday into next week.
It would be a little less cold Thursday. I can’t rule out a wintry mix developing.
Bitterly cold air returns Thursday night and lingers into the weekend.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them. Blue is snow. Pink is a wintry mix. Green is rain.
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This animation is the Canadian Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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