.
January 15, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Winter weather alert Monday morning into Monday evening. Snow likely.
Forecast: Cloudy. Snow likely. Snow accumulation of 1 to 4 inches. Locally higher snow totals possible. Blowing snow possible during the afternoon and evening. Icy road conditions. Falling temperatures behind a strong cold front.
Temperatures: MO ~ 32 to 36 IL ~ 28 to 34 KY ~ 28 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 100% TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: A band of precipitation moving north to south.
Wind chill values: 10 to 20 locally 5 to 15 degrees
Accumulating snow or ice: Yes. A dusting to three inches of snow will be possible. Pockets of four inches.
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 becoming north at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads possible. Blowing snow possible late.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
.
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Winter weather alert for the evening hours. Snow possible early (mainly over our southern counties).
Wind chill alert for the overnight hours into Tuesday morning
Forecast: Snow. Snow heavy at times over far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, west Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. Total snow accumulation of 3 to 6 inches with pockets of 6 to 8″ (locally higher). Hazardous travel. Northern portions of the region will be cloudy with flurries. The heavy snow band area is the central and southern half of the region.
Temperatures: MO ~ 0 to 5 IL ~ 2 below to 6 above KY ~ 2 below to 6 above
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% north and 100% south IL ~ 100% extreme southern IL and 30% northern portions of southern Illinois. KY ~ 100% early ending late or tapering late. TN ~ 100% before 3 AM
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread near the MO/AR border and KY/TN border. Scattered elsewhere.
Wind chill values: -15 to 8 above
Accumulating snow or ice: Yes. Accumulating snow. Blowing snow possible.
Winds: North and northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty winds.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads possible. Bitterly cold air. Low wind chill values. Blowing snow possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Have a plan B
.
January 16, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Wind chill alert
Tuesday morning
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Bitterly cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 14 to 18 IL ~ 12 to 18 KY ~ 12 to 18
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind chill values: -12 to 10
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: Northwest at 10 to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads from recent snow. Bitterly cold air. Low wind chill values.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
.
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Wind chill alert
Forecast: Mostly clear. Bitterly cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 0 to 6 IL ~ 2 to 6 KY ~ 2 to 6
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: -8 to 8
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads from recent snow. Bitterly cold air. Low wind chill values.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Have a plan B
.
January 17, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Wind chill alert for Wednesday morning
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Bitterly cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 20 to 24 IL ~ 18 to 24 KY ~ 18 to 24
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind chill values: 12 to 20
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: Northwest at 10 to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Bitterly cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 8 to 14 IL ~ 8 to 12 KY ~ 8 to 12
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: -8 to 12
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Low wind chill values.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
.
January 18, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 30 to 35 IL ~ 30 to 35 KY ~ 30 to 35
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none, but I am monitoring a weak system.
Wind chill values: 15 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice: Monitor updates
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 20 to 25 IL ~ 20 to 25 KY ~ 20 to 25
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 5% IL ~ 5% KY ~ 5% TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind chill values: 12 to 24
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
.
January 19, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Wind chill values: 30 to 40
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 35 to 40 IL ~ 35 to 40 KY ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 5% IL ~ 5% KY ~ 5% TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind chill values: 30 to 35
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps fog with low visibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
.
January 20, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle possible. Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Maybe wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor
.
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A shower possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind chill values: 40 to 45
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Have a plan B
.
January 21, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Breezy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 64 IL ~ 56 to 64 KY ~ 56 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps widespread.
Wind chill values: 34 to 40
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west and northwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Have a plan B
.
.
Monday through Monday night: Snow will produce a dusting to three inches. Local amounts could top three inches. Blowing snow possible. Icy road conditions. Bitterly cold wind chills. Wind chills values Monday night in the -10 to 10 above range. Air temperatures will dip into the single digits by Tuesday morning.
Tuesday through Friday: Bitterly cold air and low wind chill values Tuesday into Wednesday night. No snow or ice anticipated. Roads may remain icy into the middle of the week.
.
.
The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Now through next Saturday: Severe storms are not anticipated.
Sunday and Sunday night: Thunderstorms will be possible. Lightning is the main concern, at this time. Monitor updates
.
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
Snow and bitterly cold temperatures is the top story of the week.
Snow is spreading across the area this morning. A dusting to three inches is the going forecast. The front may slow as it continues to progress south. This could enhance snow totals in a few spots. I can’t rule out local amounts in the three to four inch range. Probabilities start to decrease once you move past the four inch mark.
Icy roads will develop across the region. The snow will stick.
Temperatures tonight will dip into the single digits. Wind chills values will range from -15 to 0 degrees. Cold cold and cold.
Air temperatures 6 AM Tuesday
.
.
Wind chill values 6 AM Tuesday
.
.
The cold will last into Wednesday night.
Temperatures will rise into the thirties on Thursday and near forty by Friday. Widespread fifties and perhaps sixties will arrive on Saturday and Sunday.
A strong cold front should bring widespread showers and perhaps thunderstorms by Sunday and Sunday night. Too soon to know if severe weather will be in the cards. Monitor updates.
I will need to monitor the timing of the weekend cold front and rain chances. For now, I have the focus on Sunday.
Please remember your outdoor pets. If it is cold for you it is cold for them.
.
.
Beau’s Winter Weather Outlook
.
.
Monday and Monday evening
Snow is spreading across the region. A widespread 1 to 3″ snow is anticipated. There could be locally higher amounts. This is especially true if the front slows down.
There are indications the front might stall for a few hours near the MO/AR and KY/TN border.
Snow will cause hazardous road conditions to redevelop.
Blowing snow is possible.
Southern Illinois
Southeast Missouri zone one and zone two
Western Kentucky zone one and zone two
Northwest Tennessee
.
NAM guidance snowfall forecast (one of many models)
.
.
NAM 3K model guidance snowfall forecast (one of many models)
.
.
GFS model guidance snowfall forecast (one of many models)
.
.
HRRR model guidance snowfall forecast (one of many models)
.
.
Have you subscribed to Weather Talk? If not, here is your chance!
Normal monthly operating costs, for Weather Talk, ranges from $1500 to $2000.
Here are my monthly out of pocket expenses
.
.
Your $3 subscription allows you access to these products
.
.
If you would like to support this data, then please subscribe. Your $3 a month helps cover the costs of the weather graphics, videos, and my time.
You may choose app/text notifications for my Facebook and blog updates. I will send you a link to the latest updates via the app/text.
You may subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com
Once you subscribe you can choose from four different app/text options.
.
Here are the four options.
.
We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. This will usually fix any problems.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
National interactive radar: Click this link.
