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Weather Talk is a monthly subscription texting (and more) service.  Supporting this helps cover the daily costs (average monthly costs are $700+) or all of the data, my time, and the Shadow Angel Foundation.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.  You can sign up and opt out of the text messages, as well.

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If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three.  These are found behind the Personal Notification Settings on the weathertalk.com page.

Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Winter Weather Oulook tab.

This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

Coming SOON

 

January 14, 2017
Saturday Night:  Cloudy.  Fog possible.  Showers possible.  A chance for freezing rain towards Mt Vernon, Illinois.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Monitor lower visibility if fog develops.  Monitor temps
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Low temperatures in the lower 30’s near Mt Vernon, IL to the upper 30’s and lower 40’s in the Bootheel and the Kentucky/Tennessee State line area.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  North and northeast at 4 to 8 mph  
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 50%   KY ~ 50%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Ste Genevieve County, MO towards Mt Vernon should monitor temperatures
Is severe weather expected?   No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   Have a plan B.
Sunset will be at 5:01 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 7:44 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:35 a.m.  Waning Gibbous

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January 15, 2017
Sunday:  Cloudy.  A chance for showers.  Morning fog possible.  A chance for freezing rain near and north of Mt Vernon.  Monitor updates.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Monitor northern counties for temperatures early in the day.  Lower visibility in areas with fog.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium to High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s near Mt Vernon, IL to the middle and upper 40’s over the rest of the area.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  NE and E at 5-10 mph.  
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50%  IL ~ 50%  KY ~ 40%  TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered to widespread, at times.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Monitor
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars. 
Sunrise will be at 7:06  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:02 p.m.
UV Index: 0 
Moonrise will be at 8:48 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:14 a.m.  Waning Gibbous

Sunday Night:  Cloudy.  Fog possible.  Spotty showers.  Temperatures may slowly rise through the night.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Fog could reduce visibility.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Low temperatures from 38 near Mt Vernon to 40 to 45 over west KY/Bootheel/NW TN
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  East winds at 3 to 6 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to spotty
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected?   No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Should be okay.

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January 16, 2017
Monday:  Cloudy.  Mild.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms increasing through the day and evening.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures middle to upper 40’s near Mt Vernon.  Upper 50’s to lower 60’s Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  East and southeast, but becoming south.  Wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%  KY ~ 60%  TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps widespread.  Monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.  
Sunrise will be at 7:06  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:03 p.m.
UV Index: 0 
Moonrise will be at 9:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:50 a.m.  Waning Gibbous

Monday Night:  Cloudy.  Mild.  Breezy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Locally heavy rain possible.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Low temperatures from 55 to 60 degrees.  Mild for January.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  South winds at 10-20 mph.  Gusts above 30 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~80%  IL ~ 80%   KY ~ 80%   TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps widespread.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected?   Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

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January 17, 2017
Tuesday:  Cloudy.  Breezy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures from 58 to 64 degrees and then perhaps falling late in the day.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  South and southwest winds becoming west at 10-20 mph.  Gusty.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%  KY ~ 60%  TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps widespread.  Will need to monitor the timing of the cold front.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B, but monitor updated forecasts.  
Sunrise will be at 7:05  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:04 p.m.
UV Index: 0 
Moonrise will be at 10:44 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:22 a.m.  Waning Gibbous

Tuesday Night:  Partly cloudy.  A 30% for a shower.  Mainly during the evening.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Low temperatures from 38 near Mt Vernon to 42 over west KY/Bootheel/NW TN
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  West and southwest at 8-16 
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, but ending
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected?   No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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January 18, 2017
Wednesday:  Partly sunny.  Perhaps mostly sunny.
What impact is expected?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 54 to 58 degree range.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  Southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%  KY ~ 10%  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation?  Most likely none
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 7:05  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:05 p.m.
UV Index: 1 to 2 
Moonrise will be at 11:41 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:54 a.m.  Waning Gibbous

Wednesday Night:  Mostly clear.  Cool.
What impact is expected?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Low temperatures from 36 to 44 degrees
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  Southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected?   No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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January 19, 2017
Thursday:  Partly cloudy.  Slight chance for a shower.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  South at 10 to 20 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%  KY ~ 20%  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation?  
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No 
Sunrise will be at 7:04  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:06 p.m.
UV Index: 1 to 2
Moonrise will be at -:– p.m. and moonset will be at 11:25 a.m.  Last Quarter

Thursday Night:  Increasing clouds.  A chance for a shower.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Low temperatures from lower 50’s
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  Southwest at 10 to 15 mph
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected?   No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates

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January 20, 2017
Friday:  Cloudy.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Warm.  Well above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 67 to 74 degree range
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  South and southeast at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 40%  KY ~ 40%  TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? 
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
Sunrise will be at 7:04  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:07 p.m.
UV Index: 0 
Moonrise will be at 12:35 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:57 a.m.  Waning Crescent

Friday Night:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Low temperatures in the middle to upper 50’s
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  South at 6 to 12 mph
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 40%   KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected?   Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

More information on the UV index.  Click here

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We should dry out on Wednesday.  Some guidance indicates a few spotty showers.  I will monitor that part of the forecast.

Another rain event next weekend.  Go figure.  No snow.  No snow in the guidance, at all.  Keep checking back (snow bunnies)

Let’s take a look at the different models.  We are looking at rain totals for the coming days.

Keep in mind this is Saturday afternoon through Tuesday night.  This does include today’s rain.

Locally heavier totals likely over the coming days.

This first graphic is the higher resolution NAM.  You can see some 2″+ totals in our local area.

This next graphic is the GFS model guidance.

Click to enlarge.

This next graphic is from the GEM guidance.

You can see some differences in the different models.  Bottom line is that wet weather will be with us for several days.

I will be monitoring the thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  At this time, it appears the severe weather risk will remain to our south.  This will, however have to be monitored.

Watch and warning map – Click Here

Winter weather outlooks will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Winter Weather Outlook tab.  These are updated at least twice each week.

To register and receive the winter weather outlooks, please visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three.  The text options are found under the Personal Notification Settings tab on the weathertalk.com website.

 

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How much rain is expected over the coming days?

Click to enlarge these images from weatherbell.com

These totals are from 6 am Saturday through 6 am Sunday

These totals are from 6 am Sunday through 6 am Monday

These totals are from 6 am Monday through 6 am Tuesday

These totals are from 6 am Tuesday through 6 am Wednesday

 

These totals are from 6 am Tuesday through 6 am Wednesday

If you were to add of those totals up

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

Updated rain chances and temperatures.

Patchy dense fog.

Thunderstorm chances this coming week.  Strong storms possible.  Monitor updates.

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geosciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes the following: 

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

I am the owner and operator of Weather Talk (in partnership with The Fire Horn)

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple…

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.