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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? NO.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? YES. Wind chill values this morning , in some counties, will be below 10 degrees. Another chance of that Saturday night into Tuesday night of next week.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? LOW RISK. Light snow showers are possible today. Mainly over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky. A dusting is possible.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Field and Brush Fire weather risk level.
Tuesday: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday night: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Poor to fair dispersion is expected today with mixing heights of 2000-3000 feet and light southwest to west winds becoming north. Dispersion will be poor Wednesday with mixing heights struggling to reach 1600-2000 feet and light and variable winds. Afternoon humidity both days will be around 50% or higher.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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Notes:
THE FORECAST WILL TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
—> NOTE Temperatures will vary greatly this week based on snow and ice cover. Areas with snow and ice cover could be 10 degrees colder than shown here. See the daily hand-written forecast farther down in this update for your location.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll further down to see the region by region forecast.
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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook
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A quick glance. 48-hour forecast Graphics
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Tuesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of snow showers over southeast Illinois and western Kentucky. A dusting or so possible in the heavier snow showers. A range of temperatures today.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 26° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 36° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15° during the morning. 20 to 30 during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor the chance of snow showers. Perhaps a dusting in a few spots.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09AM
Sunset: 5:01 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of evening snow flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 8° to 12°
Southeast Missouri ~ 12° to 14°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 19° to 22°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 6° to 8°
Southern Illinois ~ 8° to 10°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 12° to 14°
Far western Kentucky ~ 12° to 15°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 14° to 16°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 5° to 10°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 16° to 20°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 14°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:52 PM
Moonset: 7:59 AM
The phase of the moon: Full moon
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Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 28° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~30° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15° during the morning. 20 to 30 during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:02 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 23° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 14° to 16°
Southern Illinois ~ 14° to 18°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 18° to 22°
Far western Kentucky ~ 20° to 22°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 14° to 18°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 8° to 16°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:00 PM
Moonset: 8:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. A bit warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 45° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20° during the morning.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:03 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:02 PM
Moonset: 9:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Friday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of rain. Mainly during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~50° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30° during the morning.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:04 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain showers likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 36° to 40°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 9:02 PM
Moonset: 9:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Falling temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainy before 2 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 43° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~44° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates. Showers are possible.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:05 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 20°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 22°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20° to 22°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:02 PM
Moonset: 9:49 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion
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- Cold weather to continue into the middle of the week.
- Monitoring low end snow shower chances today.
- A brief warm-up arrives Thursday into Friday night. Turning colder this weekend, again.
- Another blast of cold air in the charts next week.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
My temperature forecasts have been a struggle over the past two weeks. Either I am too cold or too warm!
Some stations are where they are forecast to be, but not all.
So many factors go into the low temperature forecast. How much cloud cover is there? Is there snow on the ground? Is the wind calm or blowing at 5 mph? Where is the station located? What is the elevation of the reporting station?
All of those things go into the temperatures forecast. Even within one county, you can have a ten degree temperature difference.
This morning’s low is about right portions of the region. Not all.
I had Paducah in the 14 to 18 degree range. It is actually in the 20s. I was way off.
Mount Vernon, Illinois was six degrees. I was one degree too warm.
I am doing my best with the temperature forecast. It hasn’t’ been easy.
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January has certainly been cold!
Check out the last seven days. Temperature anomaly map. How many degrees below average have temperatures been.
Double click on images to enlarge them.
Month to date anomaly. It has certainly been a cold month! January feels like January.
A fast moving clipper will bring a few snow showers to southern Illinois and western Kentucky today.
Mainly over SE IL and NW KY. I can’t rule out a dusting or snow of snow.
This is what the radar looked like at 6:30 AM. Some snow to our north. It is moving southeast. It might clip our northeast counties.
The big weather story will be the cold and bitterly cold wind chill values and air temperatures.
Wind chill is what the skin feels. This is what can cause frost bite. . Thus, bundle the kids up at the bus stop. Those who work outside should take precautions, as well.
These are not extreme numbers for our region, but they are cold.
Tuesday morning wind chills
Wednesday morning wind chills
Actual air temperatures will be cold, as well.
Wednesday morning
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Thursday morning low temperatures.
We warm up briefly Friday and Saturday morning. Then, the cold air returns.
Here are the Sunday night low temperatures.
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A storm system will bring a chance of showers to the region by Friday afternoon and Saturday.
Sadly, this same system is bringing dangerous fire conditions to California today and tomorrow.
They are in a PDS red flag warning. These are rare.
That system will bring showers to our region by Friday afternoon into Saturday.
The seven day rainfall outlook.
Double click images to enlarge them.
For now, this appears to be a wet and not white system. It may end as snow showers, but for now accumulation appears unlikely.
Another arctic cold front arrives behind this system.
Here are some models and they are showing rain for system number one.
I have rain in the forecast Friday afternoon into Saturday. Perhaps ending as a rain snow mix. Low confidence on the snow.
The EC model shows rain Friday/Saturday.
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The GFS model shows rain Friday night and Saturday.
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The Canadian model shows rain on Friday and Saturday.
Models are showing several cold shots over the coming weeks. Too soon to know if that cold air will bring additional snow or ice.
A lot of the storm systems are suppressed to our south. Keeping our region dry. Whether they trend north or not, is the question.
For now, I am not tracking any winter storms for our local area. Monitor updates.
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Future-cast Radar
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
This is the GFS model
It shows our weekend rain event.
Double click images and animations to enlarge them.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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