January 14, 2022. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

.

7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

Log into www.weathertalk.com and then click the payment button. Your account will show yellow at the bottom if your account has expired.

48-hour forecast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

Friday to Friday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? No.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Monitor. I am monitoring Saturday night into Monday.

5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? Yes. I am monitoring Friday night into Sunday. Portions of the region may experience accumulating snow,

6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

January 14, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Friday Forecast: Thickening clouds. A slight chance of rain or snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 45° / SE MO 38° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 44° / South IL 40° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° / West KY 40° to 45° / NW TN 40° to 45°
Winds will be from the: East northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 5:00 PM
.

Friday night Forecast: Cloudy with rain and snow developing. Snow may mix with rain, freezing rain, and sleet.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time, but more likely late at night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° / SE MO 28° to 32° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 30° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 32° / West KY 30° to 34° / NW TN 32° to 34°
Winds will be from the: East at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 2:13 PM
Moonset: 4:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

January 15, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy with rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 35° / SE MO 28° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 34° / South IL 30° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° / West KY 30° to 34° / NW TN 30° to 35°
Winds will be from the: North northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:02 PM
.

Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a wintry mix and snow. Chances are higher across the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky/Tennessee.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered north and widespread south
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 25° / SE MO 18° to 22° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 18° to 22° / South IL 20° to 25° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 18° to 24° / West KY 20° to 24° / NW TN 22° to 25°
Winds will be from the: North northwest at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 2:57 PM
Moonset: 5:31 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

January 16, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 2 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 25° to 30° / South IL 25° to 30° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° / West KY 26° to 30° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Winds will be from the: North at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:03 PM
.

Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 15° to 20° / SE MO 14° to 18° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 14° to 18° / South IL 14° to 18° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 14° to 18° / West KY 14° to 18° / NW TN 14° to 18°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but there may be icy roadways if the winter storm verifies.
Moonrise: 3:49 PM
Moonset: 6:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

January 17, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° / SE MO 32° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 35° / South IL 32° to 35° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° / West KY 32° to 35° / NW TN 32° to 35°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:04 PM
.

Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° / SE MO 23° to 26° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 23° to 26° / South IL 23° to 26° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° / West KY 23° to 26° / NW TN 23° to 26°
Winds will be from the: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:45 PM
Moonset: 7:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

January 18, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° / SE MO 43° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 43° to 46° / South IL 43° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° / West KY 43° to 46° / NW TN 43° to 46°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 43° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:05 PM
.

Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° / SE MO 30° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 34° / South IL 30° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° / West KY 30° to 34° / NW TN 30° to 34°
Winds will be from the: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:45 PM
Moonset: 7:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Today through January 20th: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.

48-hour precipitation outlook.
.

72-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Weather Discussion

1. Winter storm (for some)
2. Weekend travel problems are possible.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

Confidence in our winter weather system is increasing (for some).

This continues to appear to be a two part system. One tonight and Saturday and then a second wave Saturday evening into Sunday.

Portions of the region may experience some light snow accumulation. The key to snow accumulation is going to be the track of each wave.

The highest chance of accumulating snow will be across portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois and then across the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.

If the system shifts much further south then there won’t be much accumulation across the Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.

Here is the latest snow projection map. Since the system has been trending southward, the totals were reduced over portions of the region.

The future-cast radars show you how the system should unfold. See those further down in the blog.

The NAM model sort of captures the general idea with this event. Here is what it is showing for snow totals.

The area of most uncertainty is going to be our southern counties. Snow accumulation in those areas will be highly dependent on the exact track of the area of low pressure. A shift of fifty miles would make a big difference in the forecast.

Dry weather is expected as we move into late Sunday morning/afternoon into early next week.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.