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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? NO.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? YES. Win chill over the next few days will occasionally dip below ten degrees. Esp at night and in the early morning hours. Bundle up.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? LOW RISK. Light snow showers are possible Tuesday. Mainly over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. A dusting is possible. I will monitor Saturday and Sunday.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. I will monitor Saturday and Sunday.
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Field and Brush Fire weather risk level.
Monday: 4. Low risk.
Monday night: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Light northwest winds and fair to poor dispersion can be expected today with humidity remaining above 50%. On Tuesday, light southwest to west winds will become north with fair to poor dispersion and humidity remaining above 60%.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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Notes:
THE FORECAST WILL TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
—> NOTE Temperatures will vary greatly this week based on snow and ice cover. Areas with snow and ice cover could be 10 degrees colder than shown here. See the daily hand-written forecast farther down in this update for your location.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll further down to see the region by region forecast.
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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook
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A quick glance. 48-hour forecast Graphics
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Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cold. A slight chance of snow flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before noon
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 30°
Southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 23° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 26° to 30°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~25° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 8° to 16° during the morning. 20 to 25 during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 5:00 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 14° to 18°
Southeast Missouri ~ 14° to 18°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10° to 14°
Southern Illinois ~ 12° to 14°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 14° to 18°
Far western Kentucky ~ 16° to 18°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 16° to 20°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 12° to 14°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 16° to 20°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 2° to 14°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 4:42 PM
Moonset: 7:17 AM
The phase of the moon: Full moon
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Tuesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of snow showers. A dusting or so possible in the heavier snow showers. Mainly over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. A range of temperatures today.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 26° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 36° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15° during the morning. 20 to 30 during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor the chance of snow showers. Perhaps a dusting in a few spots.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09AM
Sunset: 5:01 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of evening snow flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 12° to 15°
Southeast Missouri ~ 12° to 14°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 16° to 20°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 4° to 8°
Southern Illinois ~ 8° to 10°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 12° to 14°
Far western Kentucky ~ 12° to 15°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 12° to 15°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 8° to 12°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 16° to 20°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 14°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:52 PM
Moonset: 7:59 AM
The phase of the moon: Full moon
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Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 23° to 26°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 28° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~30° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15° during the morning. 20 to 30 during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:02 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 25°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 14° to 16°
Southern Illinois ~ 14° to 18°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 18° to 20°
Far western Kentucky ~ 20° to 22°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20° to 22°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 14° to 18°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 8° to 16°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:00 PM
Moonset: 8:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. A bit warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 45° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 45° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 45° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20° during the morning.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:03 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 30°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:02 PM
Moonset: 9:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion
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- Cold weather to continue into the middle of the week.
- Monitoring low end snow shower chances on Tuesday.
- A brief warm-up arrives Thursday into Friday night. Turning colder this weekend, again.
- Monitoring a series of precipitation events over the next three weeks.
- Another blast of cold air in the charts next week.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
Good day, everyone.
I hope you had a nice weekend.
Our snow, in some areas, has melted away!
Some of you still have sleet and snow on the ground. Others, watched it melt yesterday.
Temperatures were warmer yesterday than expected across some of my forecast counties. As a matter of fact, the Hopkinsville area was in the upper 40s! That will certainly melt your snow. Murray hit 45 degrees.
For those who love winter, no worries. Winter is far from over. We are already tracking more cold.
A cold front will move across the area today and another one tomorrow.
Temperatures today will actually fall. Some of you are experiencing your high temperatures at this time.
Double click on the animation to enlarge it.
Time stamp upper left. Notice how the cold air oozes into the area this morning.
This will bring reinforcing shots of cold to bitterly cold air. As a matter of fact, I can’t rule out single digits over our northern counties from this cold spell.
The coldest nights will be Monday and Tuesday night. See the forecast above and below for details.
A few snow showers are possible on Tuesday.
The snow showers on Tuesday could drop a dusting in spots. Mainly over southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Especially northwest Kentucky.
In other words, the farther north northeast you travel, the higher the chances of a dusting of snow. We can handle a dusting. Especially after our recent winter storms. Just use care if a little snow returns to the roadways.
The big story will be the cold and bitterly cold wind chill values and air temperatures.
Wind chill is what the skin feels. This is what can cause frost bite. . Thus, bundle the kids up at the bus stop. Those who work outside should take precautions, as well.
These are not extreme numbers for our region, but they are cold.
Tuesday morning wind chills
Wednesday morning wind chills
Actual air temperatures will be cold, as well.
Tuesday morning
Wednesday morning
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Thursday morning low temperatures.
Let’s look at the cold high temperatures, as well.
Today’s highs will be chilly. Some locations won’t move much upward, but will fall as the cold air filters ito the region.
Tuesday highs
Wednesday highs
Brrr
A bit warmer by Thursday and Friday. Widespread upper 30s Thursday. Some 40s are likely, as well.
Thursday highs
Friday highs
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A storm system will bring a chance of showers to the region by Friday and Saturday.
Data over the last 24 hours has pushed this system a bit farther south and east. As a matter of fact, some data shows very little precipitation. I will monitor trends.
The seven day rainfall outlook shows that idea.
Yesterday’s map showed higher totals. They have come down a bit. That speaks to the uncertainty of the weekend system’s track and intensity.
For now, this appears to be a wet and not white system. Some data shows it ending as snow, but that is the outlier for now.
Here are some models and they are showing rain for system number one.
Again, the trend over the past day has been less precipitation. I don’t believe the models are resolving this system all that well. I suspect there will continue to be some adjustments over the next few days.
For now, I have rain in the forecast Friday and Saturday. Perhaps ending as a rain snow mix. Low confidence on the snow.
The EC model shows rain Friday/Saturday.
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The GFS model shows rain Friday night and Saturday.
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The Canadian model shows rain on Friday and Saturday.
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Models are showing several cold shots over the coming weeks. Too soon to know if that cold air will bring additional snow or ice.
The overall pattern does favor overrunning precipitation along a stalled frontal boundary.
Where that boundary ends up is key to whether we receive snow or ice.
It is just too soon to make a call on that.
The first system to monitor is the weekend one. It currently appears to be rain. Then, cold air moves in behind it.
Then, we will have to see if the rain ends as a wintry mix. We will also need to watch it to make sure additional energy does not ride up along the boundary.
if that happens, then wintry precipitation would return.
For now, I am just monitoring trends in the guidance and taking each run of each model with a grain of salt.
Monitor updates.
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Future-cast Radar
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
This is the NAM 3k model
You can see those snow showers on Tuesday. Light. Perhaps someone will pick up a dusting.
Double click images and animations to enlarge them.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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