January 13, 2022. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

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48-hour forecast

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Thursday to Thursday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? No.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Monitor. I am monitoring Saturday night into Monday.

5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? Yes. I am monitoring Friday into Sunday.

6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

January 13, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of light rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° / SE MO 48° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° / West KY 50° to 54° / NW TN 50° to 54°
Winds will be from the: West northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:59 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° / SE MO 30° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 35° / South IL 30° to 35° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 35° / West KY 30° to 35° / NW TN 32° to 35°
Winds will be from the: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:35 PM
Moonset: 3:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

January 14, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Friday Forecast: Thickening clouds. A slight chance of rain or snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 45° / SE MO 38° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 44° / South IL 40° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° / West KY 40° to 45° / NW TN 40° to 45°
Winds will be from the: East northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 5:00 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy with snow developing. Snow may mix with rain, freezing rain, and sleet.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time, but more likely late at night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° / SE MO 28° to 32° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 30° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 32° / West KY 30° to 34° / NW TN 32° to 34°
Winds will be from the: East at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 2:13 PM
Moonset: 4:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

January 15, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy with rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 35° / SE MO 28° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 34° / South IL 30° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° / West KY 30° to 34° / NW TN 30° to 35°
Winds will be from the: North northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:02 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a wintry mix and snow.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 25° / SE MO 18° to 22° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 18° to 22° / South IL 20° to 25° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 18° to 24° / West KY 20° to 24° / NW TN 22° to 25°
Winds will be from the: North northwest at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 2:57 PM
Moonset: 5:31 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

January 16, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 2 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 25° to 30° / South IL 25° to 30° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° / West KY 26° to 30° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Winds will be from the: North at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:03 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 15° to 20° / SE MO 14° to 18° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 14° to 18° / South IL 14° to 18° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 14° to 18° / West KY 14° to 18° / NW TN 14° to 18°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but there may be icy roadways if the winter storm verifies.
Moonrise: 3:49 PM
Moonset: 6:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

January 17, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° / SE MO 32° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 35° / South IL 32° to 35° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° / West KY 32° to 35° / NW TN 32° to 35°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:04 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° / SE MO 23° to 26° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 23° to 26° / South IL 23° to 26° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° / West KY 23° to 26° / NW TN 23° to 26°
Winds will be from the: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:45 PM
Moonset: 7:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

January 18, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° / SE MO 43° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 43° to 46° / South IL 43° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° / West KY 43° to 46° / NW TN 43° to 46°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 43° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:05 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° / SE MO 30° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 34° / South IL 30° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° / West KY 30° to 34° / NW TN 30° to 34°
Winds will be from the: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:45 PM
Moonset: 7:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

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Today through January 20th: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Winter storm.
2. Weekend travel problems are possible.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

No significant weather concerns today into Friday. Perhaps an isolated shower today.

Dry tonight into Friday afternoon. No weather concerns.

A complex winter storm is developing for the weekend. This would include Friday night into Sunday.

Please focus on impact and not snowfall/ice totals.

The impact will be hazardous driving conditions beginning as early as Friday night and likely continuing into Sunday. There may be a period of time when temperatures rise above freezing. That will need to be monitored. That would help improve road conditions if snow does develop (and that appears likely).

Confidence in precipitation occurring is high. Confidence in totals remains low.

There is some agreement among the models as to the eventual track of the winter storm. The system in question has not been fully sampled by the models. Why? Because it has been located off the West Coast.

Once this system comes onshore, the models will fully sample it. That should add confidence to the model forecast numbers. That is going to occur today.

At this point, the models show an extreme range of snow totals across our region. From a few inches to feet. I have little to no faith in the computer model snowfall forecast numbers.

This is my first forecast estimate on snow totals. Adjustments are likely.

The track of the area of low pressure is going to be key to snow totals. Any slight adjustments to the track will influence the eventual outcome of totals.

Either way, the impact will be the same. Some icy road conditions are possible this weekend. The peak of the winter storm should be Saturday night into Sunday morning.

It is possible that temperatures are above freezing during a portion of the winter storm. We will have to monitor Friday night and Saturday, before the colder air arrives.

Any rain that occurs would cut snow totals, of course.

This is a complex forecast. Monitor updates moving forward.

The odds favor totals being higher as you travel southward vs north.

Here is the WPC/NOAA storm total forecast. This is melted precipitation.

Notice how the heavier totals are centered on our southern counties vs northern counties.

First thoughts on snow totals. Expect adjustments to this graphic.

Whatever precipitation occurs, will wind down Sunday afternoon. Ending west to east.

Dry conditions Monday into Tuesday night.

I am watching a fast moving weak system Wednesday and Wednesday night. Perhaps some light showers or snow showers.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.