Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 12, 2025: Overall, a colder pattern over the next week or two. A few mild days.

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I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page.  Link to those threads CLICK HERE

Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

January 12th through January 18th

Current risk: No concerns.

Current confidence level: High confidence.

Comments:   Severe weather is not anticipated. 

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  NO.

2.  Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.

..3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.     

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO

5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees?  POSSIBLE.  Wednesday night and another chance Saturday and Sunday night.

6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees?  NO.   

7.  Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  NO.   
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Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.

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Here is the extended concern meter.


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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Here is your bus stop forecast

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This afternoon

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My daily video
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Forecast discussion

  •   A fairly quiet weather pattern.
  •   Cold temperatures, for the most part.  A few warmer days mixed in.
  •   A chance of light rain on Tuesday night and Wednesday.   It could end as light flurries or snow showers.
  •   There is a low-end risk of a dusting of snow on Wednesday/Wednesday night (mainly our NE and E counties).
  •   Another chance of light precipitation this coming weekend.

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What is the primary weather concern?

No major weather concerns.

Some normal winter cold will be the primary story between now and next Monday.  A few showers are possible along two cold fronts.

The first cold front will arrive on Wednesday.  The second front will arrive on Saturday.  The light showers could end as flurries or light snow.  At this time, impacts are not anticipated.  Monitor updates.

Here were the 5 AM temperatures.  Typical January temperatures.  We have been a bit spoiled this year with many days milder than usual.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video or graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

Some light precipitation is possible this week.  No major concerns.

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Today through Tuesday night

A bit of a roller-coaster in the temperature department.

Check out this animation shows you the temperature anomalies.  Anomalies mean above and below average temperatures.

You can see the mild air being replaced by shots of cold air.

Double-click the graphic to enlarge it.

Red colors represent above average temperatures.  Blue and purple represent below-average temperatures.

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No weather concerns today through Tuesday night.

Clouds will increase on Tuesday night, with a chance of light showers after midnight.   Rain totals will be less than 0.15″.

Tuesday night’s rain probabilities.  What is the % chance of rain?

Today will deliver below-average temperatures.

Normal highs are in the middle 40s.  Normal lows are in the upper 20s.

You can see that here.  This shows you how many degrees below average.

Tomorrow will be warmer.

Some reporting stations may hit sixty degrees on Tuesday.  Southeast Missouri could even pop above sixty!

Not bad for January.

Here are Tuesday’s temperature anomalies.  Above average.

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Here are the highs for Tuesday.  It will be breezy.


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Wednesday through Sunday

Drought conditions will worsen over the next ten days.

Here is the latest drought monitor map.  Our entire region is in drought.  Some counties are in severe drought.

Use caution if you must burn leaves or fields.

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Another cold front will push into the region on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

This will bring clouds and light showers.

Rain chances won’t be all that high.  Rain totals will remain light.  Trace amounts up to 0.10″.

As colder air arrives, the rain may end as flurries or snow showers.

There is a small chance of a dusting of snow over mainly southeast Missouri and western Kentucky.  Mainly northwest Kentucky and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.

Even then, the chances aren’t great.

What is the probability of rain and snow?  The % chance of rain.

Wednesday

Wednesday night

Rain totals will be light.  Trace amounts up to 0.25″.

Here are the combined Tuesday and Wednesday rain totals.

Here are the snow totals.  Not much.

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There will be another cold front this weekend.

It may bring some light rain or flurries, as well.

Here are the rainfall totals for the entire seven-day period.

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The weekend front will bring colder air, as well.  Another shot of cold air.

The coldest nights will be on Wednesday night, Saturday night, and Sunday night.

Some locations could hit the teens.  Brrr.

I am not tracking any major storm systems.  I keep watching for a snow event, but nothing is showing up in the charts.

Just some flurries or snow showers.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.

Blue is snow.

NAM model  


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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain.  Red is locally heavy rain.  Blue is snow.

GFS model 

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain.  Blue is snow.

GFS model 

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.
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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.
Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?

Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account

You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)

🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.

Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.

Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.

Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF

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I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar


If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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We do have some sponsors!  Check them out.

Roof damage from recent storms?  Link – Click here

INTEGRITY ROOFING AND EXTERIORS!

⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/

 

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways!  Now, I have another product for you and your family.

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Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!

Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!

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Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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