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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? NO.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? YES. Wind chill temperatures Tuesday night/Wednesday morning could dip below ten degrees.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? MONITOR. Some light snow showers are possible today into Tuesday. Mainly over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. The highest chance will be on Tuesday. A dusting possible.
I am watching a series of systems between the 18th and 28th. A bit early to know if this will be rain or rain/snow or both. Monitor updates.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? MONITOR. A small chance of freezing drizzle tonight and Monday morning.
I am watching a series of systems between the 18th and 23rd. A bit early to know if this will be rain or rain/snow/ice. Monitor updates.
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Field and Brush Fire weather risk level.
Sunday: 3. Very low risk.
Sunday night: 3. Very low risk.
Monday: 3. Low risk.
Monday night: 3. Very low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Humidity will remain above 70% today, and above 50% Monday. Mixing heights will remain below 1700 feet at most locations today, with mixing heights on Monday at 2000-3000 feet. Dispersion will be poor both today and Monday.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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Notes:
THE FORECAST WILL TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
—> NOTE Temperatures will vary greatly this week based on snow and ice cover. Areas with snow and ice cover could be 10 degrees colder than shown here. See the daily hand-written forecast farther down in this update for your location.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll further down to see the region by region forecast.
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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook
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A quick glance. 48-hour forecast Graphics
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Sunday Forecast: Increasing clouds. Patchy morning fog. Chilly in the snow area. Warmer in areas without much snow.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 35° to 40°
Southern Illinois ~ 35° to 40°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~45° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest at 7 to 14 mph. Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25° during the morning. 30 to 40 during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? There still could be some road issues in areas hit hard by the winter storms. Watch for black ice.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:59 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of snow flurries or freezing drizzle.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 10 pm
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 14° to 16°
Southeast Missouri ~ 16° to 18°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 18° to 22°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 14° to 16°
Southern Illinois ~ 16° to 18°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20° to 22°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 18° to 22°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 8° to 16°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Watch for black ice.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:35 PM
Moonset: 6:23 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cold. A slight chance of snow flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before noon
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 23° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 26° to 30°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~25° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 8° to 16° during the morning. 20 to 25 during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Watch for black ice
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 5:00 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 14° to 18°
Southeast Missouri ~ 14° to 18°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 16° to 18°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 8° to 12°
Southern Illinois ~ 12° to 14°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 14° to 16°
Far western Kentucky ~ 14° to 18°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 12° to 15°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 12° to 14°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 14° to 18°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 4:42 PM
Moonset: 7:17 AM
The phase of the moon: Full moon
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Tuesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of snow showers. A dusting or so possible in the heavier snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 28° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 35°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~32° to 35°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 28° to 30°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 35°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15° during the morning. 20 to 30 during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor the chance of snow showers. Perhaps a dusting in a few spots.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09AM
Sunset: 5:01 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of evening snow flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 12° to 14°
Southeast Missouri ~ 12° to 14°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 15° to 20°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 4° to 8°
Southern Illinois ~ 8° to 10°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10° to 14°
Far western Kentucky ~ 12° to 15°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 12° to 14°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 6° to 12°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 15° to 20°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 2° to 14°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:52 PM
Moonset: 7:59 AM
The phase of the moon: Full moon
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Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 23° to 26°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 28° to 30°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~30° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 28° to 30°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 8° to 16° during the morning. 20 to 30 during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:02 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 14° to 16°
Southern Illinois ~ 14° to 18°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 18° to 20°
Far western Kentucky ~ 20° to 22°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20° to 22°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20° to 22°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:00 PM
Moonset: 8:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion
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- Cold weather to continue into the middle of the week.
- Monitoring low end snow shower chances. Freezing drizzle chances.
- A warm-up arrives Thursday and Friday.
- Monitoring a series of precipitation events late in the week into next week. A bit early to know whether it will be a wintry mix or mostly rain.
- Another blast of cold air in the charts next week.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
A nice wintry photo from Cody Simmerman
Good day, everyone.
Woosh! Winter definitely arrived. The last two weeks have been non-stop forecasting of winter storms. It has been a while since January did January things.
Thankfully, we have a few calm days ahead of us. Then, busy weather returns.
It will remain mostly cold over the next seven to fourteen days.
We will briefly warm up today. Mainly in areas without snow! I can’t rule out near 50 east of LBL! Enjoy that.
We will have a wider brief warm-up Thursday into Saturday of this week. Otherwise, multiple rounds of cold air are likely to impact the region.
Our electric bills aren’t going to like the weather forecast. I am just the messenger!
We have two fronts headed our way. One arrives later today and tonight. Another arrives on Tuesday.
Both will bring reinforcing shots of cold to bitterly cold air. As a matter of fact, I can’t rule out single digits over our northern counties from this cold spell.
The coldest nights will be Monday and Tuesday night. See the forecast above for details.
A few snow showers are possible tonight and again on Tuesday. I can’t rule out patchy freezing drizzle tonight, as well.
The snow showers on Tuesday could drop a dusting in spots. Mainly over southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Especially northwest Kentucky.
In other words, the farther north northeast you travel, the higher the chances of a dusting of snow. We can handle a dusting. Especially after our recent winter storms. Just use care if a little snow returns to the roadways.
The big story will be the cold and bitterly cold wind chill values.
Wind chill is what the skin feels. This is what can cause frost bite. . Thus, bundle the kids up at the bus stop. Those who work outside should take precautions, as well.
These are not extreme numbers for our region, but they are cold.
Monday morning wind chills
Tuesday morning wind chills
Wednesday morning wind chills
Actual air temperatures will be cold, as well.
Tuesday morning
Wednesday morning
A bit warmer by Thursday and Friday. Widespread upper 30s Thursday. Some 40s possible. Forties are more likely on Friday.
We will take what we can get!
A storm system will bring showers to the region by Friday and Saturday. Perhaps into Sunday. I will need to work on the timing.
For now, this appears to be a wet and not white system. Some data shows it ending as snow, but that is the outlier for now.
Another system behind this one could bring a winter storm, but confidence this far out is low.
I am monitoring it.
Here are some models and they are showing rain for system number one.
The GFS model shows rain Friday/Saturday.
The UKMET model shows rain on Saturday.
The Candian model shows rain on Friday and Saturday.
A bit early for a rainfall map, but this is the initial thinking.
Most of this falls Friday and Saturday.
Models are showing three cold shots over the coming weeks.
These are temperature anomaly maps. How many degrees above or below normal will temperatures be.
Normal highs are around 44 degrees.
Normal lows are around 27 degrees.
The first one arrives tomorrow and Tuesday.
The second one arrives around the 20th/21st
The third one arrives around the 24th/25th
That would be some pretty cold temperatures.
I will monitor trends.
Will this pattern bring more snow and ice? Probably some chances, but we just aren’t sure how high of chances. Not yet, at least.
We need to get through the Friday/Saturday system first. Then, watch a possible wave along the front.
The Canadian model shows a snowstorm around the 20th/21st.
A bit early to know if it is sniffing out something. Quite a bit of model data shows this from time to time.
I will be watching it closely.
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Future-cast Radar
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
This is the NAM 3k model
You can see those snow showers on Tuesday. Light. Perhaps someone will pick up a dusting.
Double click images and animations to enlarge them.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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