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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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My severe weather outlook will vary from location to location.
Remember, I forecast for Mt Vernon, Illinois, south into northwest Tennessee.
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48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Monitor. I am monitoring Saturday night into Monday.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? Yes. I am monitoring Friday into Saturday night.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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January 12, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° / SE MO 46° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° / South IL 48° to 54° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° / West KY 50° to 55° / NW TN 50° to 55°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:58 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 34° / SE MO 28° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 26° to 32° / South IL 26° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° / West KY 28° to 34° / NW TN 30° to 34°
Winds will be from the: South southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:02 PM
Moonset: 2:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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January 13, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of light rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° / SE MO 48° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° / West KY 50° to 54° / NW TN 50° to 54°
Winds will be from the: West northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:59 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° / SE MO 30° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 35° / South IL 30° to 35° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 35° / West KY 30° to 35° / NW TN 32° to 35°
Winds will be from the: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:35 PM
Moonset: 3:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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January 14, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Friday Forecast: Thickening clouds. A slight chance of rain or snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 45° / SE MO 38° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 44° / South IL 40° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° / West KY 40° to 45° / NW TN 40° to 45°
Winds will be from the: East northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 5:00 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy with snow developing. Snow may mix with freezing rain and sleet.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time, but more likely late at night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° / SE MO 28° to 32° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 30° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 32° / West KY 30° to 34° / NW TN 32° to 34°
Winds will be from the: East at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 2:13 PM
Moonset: 4:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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January 15, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy with rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 35° / SE MO 28° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 34° / South IL 30° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° / West KY 30° to 34° / NW TN 30° to 35°
Winds will be from the: North northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:02 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 25° / SE MO 18° to 22° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 18° to 22° / South IL 20° to 25° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 18° to 24° / West KY 20° to 24° / NW TN 22° to 25°
Winds will be from the: North northwest at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 2:57 PM
Moonset: 5:31 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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January 16, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 2 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° / SE MO 25° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 25° to 30° / South IL 25° to 30° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° / West KY 26° to 30° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Winds will be from the: North at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:03 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 15° to 20° / SE MO 14° to 18° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 14° to 18° / South IL 14° to 18° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 14° to 18° / West KY 14° to 18° / NW TN 14° to 18°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but there may be icy roadways if the winter storm verifies.
Moonrise: 3:49 PM
Moonset: 6:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through January 16th: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Winter storm.
- Weekend travel problems are possible.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
A complex weather forecast for the weekend.
The main weather story is a developing winter storm that may take aim at our region Friday into Sunday.
Most of the model guidance is pointing towards a mixture of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. The bulk of which falls late Friday night into Saturday evening.
This is a fairly slow moving storm system and it is possible that some areas receive precipitation for up to 24 hours.
The system in question remains off the West Coast. It has not been fully sampled by the models. Until it is fully sample, confidence will be on the low side as to the finer details of this event.
It does appear that some wintry precipitation is likely going to impact our region this weekend.
All of the models are showing accumulating precipitation in our region. There are differences, however, in the amounts and placement of the different types of precipitation.
This winter storm may have all precipitation types depending on your location in the region.
Some models even show a period of rain across the Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky/Tennessee border counties.
Overall confidence that there will be a winter storm is medium. Confidence in the finer details remains low.
The computer models should fully sample this system by Thursday afternoon. At that point, I will have more confidence in the models.
Plan on wintry precipitation Friday night into at least Saturday afternoon.
If you have travel plans then you will want to monitor the latest updates concerning this potential winter storm.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click the images to enlarge them.
Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.
This is an average for the region.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers January 12th through January 18th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers January 19th through January 25th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers January 25th through February 7th
The next update for these two graphics will be Tuesday after 9 AM.
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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