Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

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Long Range Video Update

The Paducah, Kentucky, National Weather Service posted this

We’re getting a little more confident in how the winter storm early next week will play out. We’re pretty confident in the timing, with an onset Sunday morning and afternoon, worst of the storm happening Sunday night, and winding down Monday morning.

It’s looking more likely that a good part of the region will be in the “battle zone” between all snow to our north (mainly north of I-64 or I-70) and all rain to our south, mainly near and south of the MO/AR and KY/TN borders.

In the middle will be lots of sleet, freezing rain, and snow.This system looks to have no shortage of moisture, so we’re looking at lots of whatever precipitation type ends up occurring at any one location.

This means significant accumulations of snow, sleet, and freezing rain are all possible, and we are getting more confident that we will see travel impacts even if we are not sure what type of precipitation will occur just yet.

With the potential for significant freezing rain accretion, we are also becoming more concerned there may be a corridor that receives enough freezing rain to cause tree and power line damage as well.

After the storm winds down, a wave of bitterly cold Arctic air will arrive for much of next week. Low temperatures in the single digits and teens are possible, as well as wind chill values near or below 0°F.

If we do have power outages, this could become a very serious situation.

This is still an evolving situation, and the forecast will likely change between now and this weekend, so please check back often for often. Have a great day!

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Wednesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds.  Some clearing as we move through the day.  Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 26° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:51 AM
Moonset: 6:40 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny.  Cool.   A chance of light rain or rain snow mix over our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction:  Southwest  wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Cold.  A chance of snow showers over mainly our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 26° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  I will monitor the snow showers.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:28 AM
Moonset: 7:51 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Friday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A slight chance of morning flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 36° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~36° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 35°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction:   Northwest wind 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:50 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 26° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 26° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:58 AM
Moonset: 9:02 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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We have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. 1.    Colder air has arrived.  It is going to linger into the coming weeks.
   2.   Cold wind chill temperatures into the weekend.
   3.   I am watching some light snow showers Thursday night over mainly over northern and northeastern counties.
   4.   I am watching a potential winter weather event Saturday night into Monday.
   5.   I am watching for the risk of bitterly cold air next week and the week after.  Monitor updates concerning this subject.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Happy New Year, everyone.

We have a complex weather set-up over the coming weeks.  A lot of cold temperatures.  Some precipitation.

It will be chilly today.  No weather concerns.

It will be cold tonight.  That cold will linger into the next two weeks.  On and off shots of bitterly cold air.

A fast moving clipper system will bring some clouds Thursday and Thursday night.  A dusting of snow, at most.  And that would be near the I64 Corridor in southern Illinois southeast into northwest Kentucky.

The high resolution models show that.

NAM 3K model  

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

Red is freezing rain.  Purple is sleet. Blue is snow.  Green, yellow, and orange represent rain.

Hrrr model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

Red is freezing rain.  Purple is sleet. Blue is snow.  Green, yellow, and orange represent rain.

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Dry conditions Friday into Saturday afternoon.  It will remain cold.

Wind chill values over the coming nights/mornings will be quite cold.  Bundle up coat weather is here.

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Winter Storm Threat

A significant precipitation event will take shape late Saturday night into Monday.

As is typical for our region, I am forecasting all precipitation types in our local area.  That includes plain old rain for some. of you

The exact track of the area of low pressure will be key to our forecast.

Let’s take a look at the computer models.  These are ensembles.

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

These two graphics show you the track of the center of low pressure.

Notice there is a tight clustering around the low passing right over our region.

EC model

GEFS model

That is not the best track for a winter storm area-wide.

If you want snow area-wide then you want the low to track through Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee.

For now, I like what the EC and GFS are showing and I agree with them.  The low will likely pass right on top of us.

Could it change?  Absolutely.  We are still five days away from this event and adjustments are likely.  The system is still out over the Pacific Ocean.  Nothing is locked in, yet.

If the low tracks right over our region, then this is what you can expect.

Our northern counties will likely see mostly snow and ice.  Some accumulation likely.

Our central counties will likely see an ice storm changing to sleet and snow.  Significant impacts are possible.  Including enough ice to cause damage.

Our southern counties will have a wintry mix changing to all rain.  Perhaps even a thunderstorm.  Then, the rain may end as a period of snow on Monday.  I can’t rule out some impacts.  Especially on the leading edge before we change to rain.  And, then at the end of the system as it pulls away.

All of the above will happen if the low tracks right over our region.  If the low ends up farther south, then we would need to bring the frozen precipitation farther south.  If the low tracks farther north, then more of us will change to plain old rain.

Impacts will vary greatly from north to south.

The Paducah, Kentucky NWS posted this image.  This image matches my current forecast.

Data does show quite a bit of precipitation with this event.  It it not moisture starved.

Double click images to enlarge them.  Here are the anticipated totals for the weekend event.

Keep in mind, this is melted totals.  One inch of rain equals ten inches of snow.

Some of this will be freezing rain, sleet, snow, and plain rain.  A wide range of precipitation types.

Let me show you some ensemble maps.

Keep in mind, these will likely change as the event draws closer.

Let’s look at what the probability of four or more inches of snow will be based on the GEFS and EC ensembles.

It would take a significant shift southward to bring those probabilities across all of our region.

As it stands, our northern counties have the best chance of heavy snow.

Let me show you the mean from the GEFS and EC.  This is for snowfall totals, overall.

The mean of all of the ensembles.

GEFS MODEL MEAN

EC MODEL MEAN

Here is the freezing rain graphic.

A fairly wide area of mixed precipitation.

I will be monitoring trends over the coming days.  Adjustments are likely when it comes to the details for your location.

As the system pulls away, there will be some wrap-around snow, as well.  That could impact just about anyone in my forecast area.  Some additional accumulation will be possible with the wrap-around snow.

Let me show you the long range models.

These are three different models.  They are in semi-agreement.  It is close.

Red is freezing rain.  Purple is sleet. Blue is snow.  Green, yellow, and orange represent rain.

The GFS American Model.    Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

Double click the  animation to enlarge it.

The EC European model.    Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

The GDPS Canadian Model.    Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

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What decides precipitation type?

Temperatures aloft determine what falls to the ground.  If there is a warm layer of air aloft, then it will melt the snowflake.  Once a snowflake melts, it can never become a snowflake again.  It will fall as freezing rain, sleet, or plain old rain.

Here is a slide showing you what determines precipitation type.

.Bitterly Cold Temperatures Are Likely Next Week 

Bitterly cold air will follow that system.  Just how cold will depend on whether we have snow or ice on the ground.

A snowpack would make it colder.

At times, wind chill values will dip below zero degrees.

Double click images to enlarge them.

Now is the time prepare your home and property for bitterly cold air.  Perhaps pipe busting cold.  If you had problems in the past with your pipes freezing, then you could have problems with the cold air that is showing up in the forecast charts.

This is a good time to remind people not to use extension chords with space heaters.  Every year we have severe cold our region has house fires because of this.  Space heaters are linked to more than 25,000+ house fires every year, resulting in more than 300 deaths in the United States.

Besides being three feet from anything that can catch fire, you need to make sure your space heater is plugged into the wall outlet. Don’t use an extension cord or a power strip, even if it’s a heavy-duty one.

Double click on images to enlarge them.

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Double click on images to enlarge them.

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

The Hrrr model

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

I posted these above

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Here is the NAM model.

I posted these above

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Let’s look farther out.  The Monday and Wednesday systems.

GFS model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

Red is freezing rain.  Purple is sleet. Blue is snow.  Green, yellow, and orange represent rain.

I posted these above

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EC model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.
Red is freezing rain.  Purple is sleet. Blue is snow.  Green, yellow, and orange represent rain.

I posted these above

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Canadian model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

Red is freezing rain.  Purple is sleet. Blue is snow.  Green, yellow, and orange represent rain.

I posted these above

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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