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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Seven day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
48-hour forecast
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Friday to Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Unlikely.
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Monitor updates. A dusting of snow will be possible tonight. Mainly across far southeast Missouri, extreme southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. I am closely monitoring Monday night and early Tuesday morning for snow or a wintry mix. I am watching next Thursday afternoon into Friday/Friday night.
6. Is freezing rain in the forecast. Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines? Monitor update. I am watching Monday night and Tuesday. The risk, overall, appears to be low. Monitor updates, as well. I am watching next Thursday night and Friday.
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Friday, November 11, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Highs will occur early in the day ahead of the cold front in some counties. Keep that in mind. It will be colder across southeast Missouri the first half of the day vs areas farther east. That is because the front has already arrived in southeast Missouri.
A mix of sun and clouds. A cold front will push into the region from the west. Falling temperatures from west to east through the late morning and afternoon hours. A chance of a widely scattered light shower near the front. Also, a chance of a shower over our far eastern counties near Hopkinsville (from the remnants of Hurricane Nicole). Windy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 15 to 25 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A fast moving weak system will approach from the southwest. This will spread clouds into the region. Rain and snow developing from southwest to northeast. A brief period of moderate snow possible before ending. Snow chances will be highest across far southeast Missouri into western Kentucky and far southern Illinois. This may end up mostly rain over the Missouri Bootheel into northwest Tennessee. Either way, little or no impacts are expected. Ground and road temperatures are very warm. A dusting to an inch of snow possible on primarily elevated surfaces.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous across the southern quarter of the region.
Timing of the rain: After 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 28° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 26° to 30°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 8 to 16 mph becoming north northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 16° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor icy bridges. Slushy snow accumulation on elevated surfaces.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:00 PM
Moonset: 9:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Saturday, November 12, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Some morning clouds. Clearing through the day. A chance of early morning snow showers (mainly our eastern counties). Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early in the day
Timing of the rain: Before 11 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Bitterly cold. Cold wind chill values, as well.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:52 PM
Moonset: 10:37 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Sunday, November 13, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Another cold day for the area.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 8 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 16° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:47 PM
Moonset: 11:25 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Monday, November 14, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Increasing afternoon clouds. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 8 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:33 AM
Sunset: 4:45PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. A system will move into our region from the southwest. It will be moving northeast. It will spread a wintry mix across our region. Confidence is increasing that some type of precipitation will occur. Temperatures will vary from north to south. It is possible that some of the region will be above freezing for this event. If so, it will be plain rain in those areas. Monitor updates.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time (more likely after 10 PM)
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 35°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 35°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 35°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 35°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 33° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps some icy roadways (depending on precipitation rate).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates forecast.
Moonrise: 9:47 PM
Moonset: 12:06AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Tuesday, November 15, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy during the morning with a chance of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Temperatures will vary across the region and that will decide precipitation type. Temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing across the entire region. Monitor updates as this event is still several days away.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early in the day.
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 1 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor updates concerning a chance of a wintry mix early in the day, as well.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Clearing. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 26° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 26° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 10:47PM
Moonset: 12:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Wednesday, November 16, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
Southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 26° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 26° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 11:48 PM
Moonset: 1:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through November 25th: Severe thunderstorms are currently not anticipated. As always, check future forecast updates.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. It has no significant meaning.
The solid thick black line has no significant meaning.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Strong cold front arrives today.
- A few showers may accompany the front. Falling temperatures and windy conditions.
- Rain and snow showers tonight and early Saturday morning.
- A mixture of precipitation Monday night and Tuesday.
- Another system late next week.
- A more active weather pattern. Colder overall.
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Weather advice:
Much colder air will arrive this weekend. A shock to the system. We are going from much above average temperatures to much below average temperatures.
A rain and snow event tonight could produce a dusting of snow in a few locations.
I am watching a winter storm Monday night and Tuesday. It is still too early for details. Monitor updates.
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Current Weather Discussion
Well, all good things must come to an end. So they say.
Our warm weather is about to be but a memory.
A strong cold front is advancing across our region.
Check out the 6 AM temperature map. This shows you what temperatures are around the region.
Temperature and radar map (6 AM screen shot).
Double click on images to enlarge them.
Notice how much colder it is to our west and northwest. That is the cold air that is rapidly pushing into the region.
Many areas will experience their high temperatures this morning. Falling temperatures through the day.
Winds will gust above 25 mph. This will make it feel colder.
It will actually be mild in some counties this morning and early afternoon. Mainly the eastern half of the region. You can see that on the map above. Many areas are already starting out in the 50s.
A fast moving weather system will bring the region its first shot of rain and snow tonight.
A novelty snow event, for some.
You can see that on this 500 mb vort chart. Watch the lobe of energy push into the region from the southwest. This causes lift in the atmosphere. Thus, precipitation.
You can also see the frontalgenesis on this map. The purple shaded area over our local area. That represents quite a bit of lift. Briefly. Just enough to produce a band of snow.
There could be a thin band of heavier snow within the main area of precipitation. Again, briefly.
This system has been trending a bit stronger and farther north. It appears that there will be a three to five hour window of precipitation late tonight into early Saturday morning.
Ground conditions are very warm. Road temperatures are warm. That will make it difficult for the snow to actually stick. Elevated surfaces could have a slushy accumulation of a dusting to perhaps an inch.
This is not going to be an impactful system.
Remember, bridges can always freeze before other surfaces.
The quick shot of rain and snow will move out of the area early Saturday morning. Before sunrise in many areas.
Most people will sleep through this event.
Here is what the future-cast radar should look like. Green is rain. Blue is snow. Purple is sleet.
The chance of light accumulation is highest across far southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and perhaps far southern Illinois.
Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be cold. Many areas may not get out of the upper 30s to middle 40s. Brrr. What a difference.
I am closely watching another weather event Monday night and Tuesday morning.
This one could be a bit stronger. Model guidance continues to show the potential of both rain and snow in our region.
It is still too early for specifics, but if the system were to be stronger, then some accumulating snow would occur across at least portions of the region.
The farther northwest you travel the colder it would be. Let’s keep a close eye on it.
The GFS model shows quite a bit of snow in the region.
The EC shows mostly rain and perhaps a wintry mix (purple colors).
Let’s look at the model ensemble snow totals.
The general idea of ensembles is that the more squares that agree, then the higher the confidence in the forecast numbers.
The ensembles are all over the place with snow accumulation.
The GFS model show mostly snow.
Double click on images to enlarge them.
The EC European model guidance isn’t quite as bullish on snow in our local area.
Finally, I am watching another system late next week. Perhaps Thursday night into Friday night. That is in the long range and confidence in the details remains low. Stay tuned.
Drought continues to be an issue in our region. Here are the latest drought numbers.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers November 11th through November 17th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers November 18th through November 24th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers November 25th through December 8th
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Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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