Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

.

.
I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page.  Link to those threads CLICK HERE

Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

.

🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

May 23rd through May 30th

Current risk: Currently, we do not have a tornado risk.

Current confidence level: Mediumconfidence in the forecast.

Comment:  At this time, I do not have tornadoes in the forecast.

.

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  Scattered lightning is possible late tonight into Monday night.  Another chance next Thursday and Friday.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  NOT AT THIS TIME.   Not at this time.

I will monitor the Missouri Bootheel on Saturday and Sunday.  The SPC has a low risk of severe weather.  For now, this threat appears limited and will likely stay to our south and west.  I will keep it out of the forecast until I see additional data.

I will monitor next Thursday and Friday.  It is too early to know if there will be severe weather concerns for that system.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? SCATTERED RISK.   On and off periods of rain into next week.  With repeated rounds of thunderstorms, I can’t rule out some spotty water issues.  The risk is highest across southeast Missouri.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  NO.   

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NO.    

.

A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

.

.

.

.

.

Forecast discussion.    

•   Coolish weather into Monday.  A warming trend is expected towards the middle of next week.
•   Dry weather today.
•   We will have scattered shower and thunderstorm chances tonight into Monday night.  A small chance on Tuesday.
•   I would not cancel weekend plans, but monitor updated forecasts/radars.  Then, have a plan B in case it rains.  It certainly will not rain all of the time.
•   Some areas may receive little or no rainfall tonight and tomorrow.  Peak chances will be across southeast Missouri.
•   Another chance of showers and thunderstorms next Thursday and Friday.

.

Yesterday was another fantastic day across the region.  I played outside with my dog Henry, and I have to say that it was nice.

Maybe I can mow the yard today!

We are waking up to cool temperatures.  Northern portions of southern Illinois were in the low to mid-40s an hour ago.

Here were the 6 am temperatures.

.

No weather concerns today.   A nice day ahead of us.

KEY MESSAGE

Yes, there will be some rain showers this weekend.  It won’t rain all the time.  Some locations may be mostly dry tonight and tomorrow, especially across portions of Illinois and Kentucky.  Keep that in mind.

If you have outdoor plans, then have a plan B tonight through Monday night.  Then, if it rains during your event time, you will be prepared.  If it doesn’t, then you can enjoy your activities.

The higher rain totals will be draped northwest to southeast across Missouri and Tennessee.  Then, lower towards as you move towards southeast Indiana and northwest Kentucky.

FORECAST

A series of weather systems will move into the region tonight through Monday evening.  This will bring on and off shower and thunderstorm chances.

At this time, we do not expect severe weather on Saturday, Sunday, or Monday.

The SPC has a low risk of a few intense storms across far southern Missouri into the Bootheel and parts of western Tennessee on Saturday.  For now, I kept that out of the forecast.  I will reevaluate it again tomorrow.

Rain totals Friday night through Saturday morning.  Notice how they are skewed towards the southwest.

Double click the image to enlarge it.

.

Then, rain totals from Friday night through Sunday morning.

.

Rain totals through Tuesday morning.

.

Let’s break it down a bit more.  Here are the 12-hour rain probabilities.

7 PM Friday night through 7 AM Saturday.

7 AM Saturday to 7 PM Saturday

7 PM Saturday to 7 AM Sunday

7 AM Sunday to 7 PM Sunday

7 PM Sunday to 7 AM Monday

7 AM Monday to 7 PM Monday

.

As you can see, there will be periods with greater rain probabilities.  Plan accordingly.

Again, it will be cool into Monday.  Temperatures, at times, will be 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal norms.

I am watching another rain event next Thursday and Friday.  It is too soon to know if severe weather will be a concern.

I hope you have a nice holiday weekend!  Rain or shine.

.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM model.

.

Here is the NAM 3K model

.

Here is the GFS model

.

.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 80 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

.

.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 81 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
.

Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
.

More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

.
We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

.

WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
.

.

More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

.