Friday, January 20, 2023. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store!

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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

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48-hour forecast

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Friday to Friday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. I will be watching another storm system next Tuesday into Wednesday. There are uncertainties about the storm track.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor updates.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. I will be watching another system next Tuesday into Wednesday.

4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Monitor. Colder air is possible behind a storm system next Tuesday and Wednesday.

5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Monitor. I will be monitoring a storm system next Tuesday into Wednesday.

6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? Possible. Light freezing rain is possible Saturday night and Sunday night. At this time, impacts do not appear to be significant. Remember, it only takes a little freezing rain to cause problems on bridges, overpasses, and elevated surfaces. I will keep an eye on another system towards the middle of next week. Storm track is still in question.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines

6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.

Friday, January 20, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. More clouds far north northeast vs south southwest. Clearing as the day wears on.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 7 to 14 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:07 PM
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Friday night Forecast:
What is the chance of precipitation? Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 23° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 23° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:19 AM
Moonset: 3:38 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Saturday, January 21, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few high clouds moving in during the afternoon. Patchy morning fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 5:08 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:
What is the chance of precipitation? Increasing clouds. Rain showers spreading into the region from the southwest. Rain may mix with snow with no accumulation expected. The rain/snow mix would mainly be over northern portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Timing of the precipitation: After 5 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 35°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 35°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 7:18 AM
Moonset: 4:55 PM
The phase of the moon: New

Sunday, January 22, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers. Rain may briefly mix with snow.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 5:09 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:
What is the chance of precipitation? Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of an evening rain shower.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered. Ending.
Timing of the precipitation: Before 9 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
Southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 26° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 28° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 32°°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor the chance of icy bridges and overpasses.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 8:06 AM
Moonset: 6:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Monday, January 23, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming south 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 5:10 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
Southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 26° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 28° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 32°°
Winds will be from this direction: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:46 AM
Moonset: 7:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Tuesday, January 24, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? LOW Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Increasing afternoon clouds. A chance of afternoon precipitation.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 2 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 5:11 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of precipitation The track of the low will determine precipitation type.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 35°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 35°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 35°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 35°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 35°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 35°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 35°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 35°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30° to 35°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 35°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor
Moonrise: 9:19 AM
Moonset: 8:46 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Click the tab below.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today through January 28th: Not at this time.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Tornado Probability Outlook

Damaging Wind Probability Outlook

Large Hail Probability Outlook

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Cool today. Some clouds north northeast. Sun south southwest.
2. Cool weekend.
3. Light rain and snow Saturday night into Sunday.
4. Strong system Tuesday late morning into Wednesday. Rain and snow.

Weather advice:

Monitor the risk of rain or a wintry mix Saturday night into Sunday night.

Monitor the risk of a weather event towards the middle of next week.

Current Weather Discussion

Good day, everyone.

I hope you had a nice week!

Let’s take a look at our recent rainfall event. Check out these rain totals.

Double click on images to enlarge them.

Here are the rain totals from the last thirty days. Quite the flip from summer and autumn.

Some locations have received more than eight inches of rain.

Drought conditions have been weakening since mid-December. It won’t be long and the entire region will be out of drought. That is good news.

We never want to enter spring in drought. Let’s hope our active pattern continues.

We have experienced three severe weather episodes in January. Two produced tornadoes. One produced no severe weather.

Calm weather today.

We will have some clouds over our northern and northeastern counties. You can see that on this pre-sunrise satellite image.

Those clouds will slowly erode today from southwest to northeast.

It will be cool today.

No weather concerns tonight. Perhaps some fog.

Saturday will be dry. Decent day for January. Cool temperatures.

Our next chance of precipitation arrives Saturday night into Sunday. Ending Sunday afternoon/evening.

It should be just cold enough for a wintry mix over at least the northern portion of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and perhaps near the Kentucky/Indiana state line.

I do not expect accumulation. As always, watch elevated surfaces in case temperatures briefly dip below freezing.

For the most part, this is a rain event. Temperatures will be above freezing across most of the region.

Again, watch our northern counties late Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

Temperatures will push into the upper 30s to middle 40s Sunday.

Rain showers end Sunday afternoon. Perhaps one or two showers remaining over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky Sunday evening.

Monday will be dry.

A larger storm system will develop Tuesday into Wednesday.

We need to closely monitor the track of this fast moving system.

The track of the low will be key to what type of precipitation your county receives.

It is possible that most of this event is rain. Ending as snow.

If the low tracks farther south and southeast, then snow and ice chances increase.

It is too soon to know the track. We just don’t have the forecast skill to get it right five days in advance.

Let me show you the three main models.

GFS

Canadian

Notice how the track of the low impacts who receives snow, freezing rain, sleet, and plain rain/storms.

Ensembles are trending a bit colder with more snow.

What are ensembles?

Here is the EC mean of its ensembles

Here are some ensembles (snow totals).

Precipitation should arrive Tuesday afternoon and continue into Wednesday morning.

Monitor updates over the coming days.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.

This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Models are not picking up on much precipitation through Sunday night.

They show scattered sprinkles or flurries today into tomorrow.

You can barely see them on these graphics.

This animation is the higher resolution 3K NAM American Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

Double click on image to enlarge it

Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

Click on the image to expand it.

This outlook covers January 20th through January 26th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 41 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
.
This outlook covers January 27th through February 3rd

Click on the image to expand it

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 39 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 25 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″

This outlook covers February 3rd through February 16th

Precipitation outlook

Monthly Outlooks

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

January Temperature Outlook

January Precipitation Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

February Temperature Outlook

February Precipitation Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

March Temperature Outlook

March Precipitation Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

April Temperature Outlook

April Precipitation Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

May Temperature Outlook

May Precipitation Outlook

Winter Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Temperature

Precipitation

The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.

La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.

Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE

La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.

These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North

No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.

The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.

As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.

I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.

We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.

What is the NAO? Click here for more information.

Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.

What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.

We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.

People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.

We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.

Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.

Here is what will influence the winter.

ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.

To better read the graphic, double click on it.

Outlook thoughts.

Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.

That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.

Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.

To better read the graphic, double click on it.

** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **

Temperature

Precipitation

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