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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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Also see Beau Dodson Weather app for that video and that is also where you can find the Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, and the long range video.
48-hour forecast
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Friday to Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Low risk. I will keep an eye on next Friday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Yes. Today through Saturday night.
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Yes. I am monitoring Sunday night into Monday. Light snow will be possible.
6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Friday, December 23, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Wind Chill Warning
Friday Forecast: Bitterly cold. Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 4° to 8°
Southeast Missouri ~ 5° to 10°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 8° to 12°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 5° to 10°
Southern Illinois ~ 6° to 12°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 6° to 12°
Far western Kentucky ~ 5° to 12°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 6° to 12°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 6° to 12°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 8° to 14°
Winds will be from this direction: West 15 to 35 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -25° to -5°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold wind chill values behind the front. Icy roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ -5° to 2°
Southeast Missouri ~ -2° to 4°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 3° to 6°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ -5° to 2°
Southern Illinois ~ -2° to 2°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ -2° to 5°
Far western Kentucky ~ 2° to 5°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 2° to 5°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 2° to 5°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 3° to 6°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 10 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -20° to 0°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold temperatures. Icy roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 7:38 AM
Moonset: 4:54 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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Saturday, December 24, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Bitterly cold. Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 12° to 15°
Southeast Missouri ~ 13° to 16°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 16° to 18°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 12° to 14°
Southern Illinois ~ 12° to 15°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 13° to 16°
Far western Kentucky ~ 14° to 16°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 14° to 16°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 14° to 16°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 15° to 20°
Winds will be from this direction: West 15 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 10°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold wind chill values behind the front.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:43 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 4° to 8°
Southeast Missouri ~ 5° to 10°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 5° to 10°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 4° to 8°
Southern Illinois ~ 4° to 8°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 5° to 10°
Far western Kentucky ~ 5° to 10°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 5° to 10°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 5° to 10°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 8° to 12°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -6° to 5°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold temperatures.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 8:41 AM
Moonset: 6:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Sunday, December 25, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Bitterly cold. Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 23° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 23° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 25°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 25°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 25°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold morning hours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of light snow.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous north. Scattered south.
Timing of the precipitation: After midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10° to 15°
Southeast Missouri ~ 10° to 15°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 12° to 15°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10° to 15°
Southern Illinois ~ 10° to 15°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 12° to 15°
Far western Kentucky ~ 10° to 15°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10° to 15°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10° to 15°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 12° to 15°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slick roads if snow develops.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:34 AM
Moonset: 7:25 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Monday, December 26, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers. A dusting to a couple of inches of snow.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 35°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 35°
Winds will be from this direction: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Evening clouds. Then, clearing.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 15° to 20°
Southeast Missouri ~ 15° to 20°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 15° to 20°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 15° to 20°
Southern Illinois ~ 15° to 20°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 15° to 20°
Far western Kentucky ~ 15° to 20°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 15° to 20°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 15° to 20°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 15° to 20°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 14° to 18°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:10 AM
Moonset: 8:42 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Tuesday, December 27, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 23° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 25°
Far western Kentucky ~ 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 23° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 26°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:51 AM
Moonset: 9:55 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Wednesday, December 28, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 43° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 7 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:21 AM
Moonset: 11:04 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through January 2nd: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. It has no significant meaning.
The solid thick black line has no significant meaning.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Winter storm pulls away from the region.
- Bitterly cold air remains.
- Monitoring snow chances Sunday night into Monday.
- Rain likely and milder ahead of the front Thursday.
Weather advice:
High risk of frost bite today through Saturday morning. Use care.
Current Weather Discussion
Running late today. Sorry. It has been a long week!
I hope everyone has a Merry Christmas and happy holidays!
The primary conern today through Saturday will be the bitterly cold air.
I am watching a chance of snow Sunday night and Monday. Some accumulation possible.
We will warm up next week. That is the good news!
A flash freeze pushed across the region yesterday.
A couple of graphics from yesterday’s temperature drop.
Temperatures fell 40 to 50 degrees area-wide.
Here at The Weather Observatory, we had a 2 PM temperature of 45 degrees. By evening we had dipped into the single digits. By morning it was seven below.
Temperatures fell twenty degrees in the first one to two hours.
Rain quickly turned to snow and it didn’t take long until surfaces began to ice over.
A widespread one to three inches of snow fell across the region. Isolated pockets of three to four inches.
There were numerous car accidents. Some fatal.
There were several structure fires overnight.
Wind chill temperatures dropped below -30 in some counties. A rare event.
Actual air temperatures fell to -2 to -8 area-wide.
Here at The Weather Observatory we recorded a low of minus seven. Bitterly cold.
I recorded around 2 to 2.5″ of snow. It has been difficult to measure because of the wind.
Near blizzard conditions were experienced overnight. Visibility fell below a quarter of a mile for several hours. The snow blew sideways.
The highest wind gust was 45 mph. We had sustained winds in the upper 20s to upper 30s. It was one of the windier storm systems in quite some time.
Thankfully, the snow only lasted a few hours.
Here are some of the snow reports.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 329 AM CST FRI DEC 23 2022 SNOWFALL REPORTS LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE LAT/LON 2 E OWENSBORO 4.0 IN 1109 PM 12/22 37.76N/87.09W MARION 4.0 IN 1006 PM 12/22 37.33N/88.08W MARION 4.0 IN 1020 PM 12/22 37.33N/88.08W CARBONDALE 4.0 IN 0925 PM 12/22 37.72N/89.22W 1 E POPLAR BLUFF 3.5 IN 0755 PM 12/22 36.77N/90.39W 1 NNE PADUCAH 3.5 IN 0828 PM 12/22 37.08N/88.63W 1 SE PADUCAH 3.5 IN 0954 PM 12/22 37.06N/88.62W NEWBURGH 3.5 IN 0955 PM 12/22 37.95N/87.40W BOONVILLE 3.5 IN 1145 PM 12/22 38.05N/87.27W PRINCETON 3.5 IN 0200 AM 12/23 38.36N/87.57W GRANDIN 3.3 IN 0445 PM 12/22 36.83N/90.82W BERNIE 3.0 IN 1045 PM 12/22 36.67N/89.97W PERRYVILLE 3.0 IN 1100 PM 12/22 37.73N/89.87W EAST PRAIRIE 3.0 IN 0950 PM 12/22 36.78N/89.38W CANTON 3.0 IN 0949 PM 12/22 36.80N/87.96W 2 SE HEATH 3.0 IN 0950 PM 12/22 37.07N/88.77W 2 SE HEATH 3.0 IN 1200 AM 12/23 37.07N/88.77W 7 W SALEM 3.0 IN 1000 PM 12/22 37.28N/88.37W MADISONVILLE 3.0 IN 0942 PM 12/22 37.34N/87.51W 2 NW LOVELACEVILLE 3.0 IN 0934 PM 12/22 36.98N/88.86W DUDLEY 2.5 IN 0820 PM 12/22 36.80N/90.09W 2 E CAPE GIRARDEAU 2.5 IN 0823 PM 12/22 37.31N/89.52W 1 SSE AURORA 2.5 IN 1200 AM 12/23 36.76N/88.14W HOPKINSVILLE 2.5 IN 1115 PM 12/22 36.85N/87.49W MURRAY 2.5 IN 0925 PM 12/22 36.61N/88.32W MURRAY 2.5 IN 1025 PM 12/22 36.61N/88.32W 3 E MILL SPRING 2.0 IN 1050 PM 12/22 37.06N/90.62W FRUITLAND 2.0 IN 0840 PM 12/22 37.45N/89.64W BENTON 2.0 IN 0954 PM 12/22 36.85N/88.36W 4 NNE DAWSON SPRINGS 2.0 IN 1000 PM 12/22 37.22N/87.67W MORTONS GAP 2.0 IN 1200 AM 12/23 37.24N/87.47W HENDERSON 2.0 IN 0942 PM 12/22 37.84N/87.58W MURRAY 2.0 IN 0827 PM 12/22 36.61N/88.32W HERRIN 2.0 IN 1000 AM 12/22 37.80N/89.03W ANNA 2.0 IN 1225 AM 12/23 37.46N/89.24W DE SOTO 2.0 IN 0900 PM 12/22 37.81N/89.22W GRAYVILLE 2.0 IN 0953 PM 12/22 38.26N/88.00W HOPKINSVILLE 1.5 IN 0939 PM 12/22 36.85N/87.49W 1 S BOONVILLE 1.5 IN 0938 PM 12/22 38.03N/87.27W SIKESTON 1.0 IN 0941 PM 12/22 36.88N/89.58W FRIEDHEIM 1.0 IN 1000 PM 12/22 37.57N/89.82W OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING EQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURES. WE THANK ALL VOLUNTEER WEATHER OBSERVERS FOR THEIR DEDICATION. NOT ALL DATA LISTED ARE CONSIDERED OFFICIAL. Wind chill reports
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 502 AM CST FRI DEC 23 2022 ...12 HOUR MINIMUM WIND CHILL REPORTS AT 5 AM 12/23/2022... LOCATION WC TEMP. LAT/LON HARRISBURG IL -33 F 37.82N/88.55W FAIRFIELD -32 F 38.38N/88.39W 0.9 W DE SOTO (UPR) -32 F 37.82N/89.24W 3.0 E GRIFFIN (INDOT) -31 F 38.20N/87.86W MT VERNON IL -31 F 38.32N/88.87W PERRYVILLE MO -31 F 37.87N/89.87W REND LAKE -30 F 38.14N/88.92W HENDERSON KY -30 F 37.82N/87.67W OWENSBORO KY -30 F 37.72N/87.17W 3.6 SE GRAND TOWER (UPR) -30 F 37.60N/89.46W GREENVILLE KY 6 N -29 F 37.29N/87.16W HENDERSON -29 F 37.79N/87.51W MORGANFIELD KY 4 E -29 F 37.69N/87.84W HENDERSON KY 5 E -29 F 37.82N/87.51W CARBONDALE -29 F 37.70N/89.24W 1.2 NE MELODY HILL (INDOT) -29 F 38.06N/87.48W PRINCETON KY 2 SE -29 F 37.10N/87.86W CALHOUN KY 5 NW -29 F 37.59N/87.32W MARION KY 4 NE -29 F 37.38N/88.04W 3.6 N BENTON (UPR) -29 F 38.06N/88.90W CARMI IL -28 F 38.08N/88.12W CARBONDALE IL -28 F 37.78N/89.25W HOPKINSVILLE KY 6 N -28 F 36.95N/87.52W 3.7 SE OWENSBORO -27 F 37.72N/87.08W BARDWELL -27 F 36.84N/88.92W DIXON SPRINGS -27 F 37.44N/88.67W EVANSVILLE IN -27 F 38.05N/87.52W MURRAY KY 1 W -27 F 36.61N/88.34W MAYFIELD KY 6 SW -27 F 36.70N/88.72W ELKTON KY 5 SW -27 F 36.76N/87.21W CADIZ KY 4 SW -26 F 36.83N/87.86W HERRIN -26 F 37.79N/89.01W MADISONVILLE KY 4 S -26 F 37.27N/87.48W MADISONVILLE KY -26 F 37.35N/87.40W CAPE GIRARDEAU MO -26 F 37.23N/89.58W MARION IL -26 F 37.77N/89.02W STURGIS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT -26 F 37.54N/87.95W BENTON KY 4 N -25 F 36.92N/88.34W HENDERSON -25 F 37.77N/87.48W BARDWELL -25 F 36.87N/88.89W PHILPOT -25 F 37.70N/86.93W HICKMAN KY 2 E -25 F 36.57N/89.16W MURRAY KY -25 F 36.67N/88.37W GREENVILLE KY -25 F 37.22N/87.15W METROPOLIS IL -25 F 37.18N/88.75W POPLAR BLUFF MO -25 F 36.77N/90.32W CHARLESTON, MO SOUTH -25 F 36.85N/89.36W 1.4 W ASH HILL (UPR) -25 F 36.77N/90.26W 6.5 S DELTA (UPR) -25 F 37.11N/89.77W CRAB ORCHARD IL -24 F 37.68N/89.00W CARBONDALE -24 F 37.71N/89.20W GREENVILLE KY -24 F 37.22N/87.15W 2.9 N BONNIE (UPR) -24 F 38.24N/88.90W DIXON SPRINGS IL -23 F 37.44N/88.67W CAIRO IL -23 F 37.07N/89.22W FORT CAMPBELL KY -23 F 36.67N/87.50W PADUCAH KY -23 F 37.07N/88.77W SIKESTON MO -22 F 36.90N/89.57W DONIPHAN MO -21 F 36.65N/90.78W HAUBSTADT -21 F 38.20N/87.52W GOLDEN POND KY -21 F 36.78N/88.06W PIEDMONT MO -21 F 37.24N/90.27W 1.6 E DEXTER MO(SCAN) -20 F 36.78N/89.93W DAHLGREN -20 F 38.17N/88.60W OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING EQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURES. WE THANK ALL VOLUNTEER WEATHER OBSERVERS FOR THEIR DEDICATION. NOT ALL DATA LISTED ARE CONSIDERED OFFICIAL.
The bitterly cold temperatures are a concern into Saturday morning.
Check on elderly people. Make sure they are properly using space heaters and other heating devices. Typically, during this kind of cold weather we have an increased risk of house fires.
People are also trying to save money. Electric bills are higher than they were a year ago. Thus, some people may try new types of heating methods. Again, this can cause issues.
Exposed skin can get frost-bite quickly in temperatures like those being forecast. Make sure kids and adults cover fingers, ears, and exposed skin.
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Wind chill values could dip below -10. Bitterly cold temperatures.
That concern will be Thursday into Saturday night/Sunday morning.
All in all, this is a cold wave event. Perhaps some snow (no promises on the snow portion of the forecast).
Cold cold cold.
I am watching a fast moving system Sunday night into Monday. Light snow showers will be possible with it. Confidence continues to be low on that event. I did move it up twelve hours, as well.
A warming trend is expected towards the middle end of next week.
Check out today’s temperature anomalies. WELL below seasonal averages. Check out next week. We warm up.
Those pink colors represent well below average temperatures.
Those red colors represent well above average temperatures.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models are not picking up on much precipitation through Sunday night.
They show scattered sprinkles or flurries today into tomorrow.
You can barely see them on these graphics.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers December 23rd through December 29th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers December 30th through January 5th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers January 6th through January 19th
Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
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