Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Good morning, everyone.

I hope you have a nice holiday weekend!  The weather will be nice.

The new drought maps are out.  Drought continues to spread across our region.

Yellow is low-end drought.  Tan is a moderate drought.  Let’s compare this week to last week.

Double-click to enlarge the graphics.

You can also see the dry topsoil on this map.  A lot of orange and red colors. Very dry.  Some of my forecast counties have not received measurable rain in over forty days!

You can also see where that rain tracked from Kansas into Arkansas over the last few days.  So close!

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We are waking up to nice temperatures again.  Not as cool as recent days, but still nice.

Here were the 5 am temperatures

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Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be nice.  Warm days.  Cool nights.  No weather concerns, except for the dryness.

High and low temperatures will be two to six degrees below average.

I am watching Monday and Monday night for a slight chance of a couple of pop-up showers and thunderstorms over western Kentucky and western Tennessee.  For now, I kept the chances at 10%.  Most areas will remain dry.

Here are the Monday afternoon rain probabilities.  Not much of a chance.

Here is Monday night.  Not much.

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Another cold front next week.

Then, a cold front is expected to push towards the region on Tuesday and Wednesday.   This will bring increasing clouds and a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  For now, I kept the chances at 30%.  I will monitor trends and raise that number as confidence increases in the final forecast.

The front should push through the region by Wednesday night or Thursday.  This will bring an end to the rain chances.  If the front slows, then showers would linger into Thursday.  For now, I kept Thursday’s chances at 20%.

This won’t bring enough rain to end the drought.  And, some areas may miss out, yet again.

Some of you have not received measurable rain in over forty days.  It is extremely dry in some counties.

Let’s look at three models.

What is the percent chance of 0.50″ or more of rain with the cold front next week.  Not the best odds.

The EC AI model

The GFS ensembles

The EC ensembles.

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The 15-day EC model temperature outlook is nice.

I am watching the middle of September for several warmer days.  The GFS model is showing hotter temperatures than the EC.

The EC has been steadier with its numbers.  I am not sure we are completely done with 90-degree readings, but with each passing week, it becomes less likely.  Especially days on end of the 90s.

Autumn is knocking.

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Here is a model blend of temperatures

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model

No rain on the NAM 3K through Monday morning.

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