February 9, 2026: Light rain chances on Tuesday/Tuesday night. Watching additional systems in the long range.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

February 9th through February 15th

Current risk: No concerns.

Current confidence level: High confidence.

Comments: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. I wlil monitor Thursday into the weekend.

2. Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.

..3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees? NO.

6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees? NO.

7. Is accumulating snow (one inch or more of snow) or ice in the forecast? NO.

⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.

⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.

A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

Here is your bus stop forecast

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This afternoon

My daily video

Forecast discussion

Warmer today and tomorrow. Tuesday will be the warmest day. A bit cooler by Wednesday and Thursday.
Scattered showers on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Isolated chances on Wednesday. Light totals.
I am watching additional rain chances late this week into the weekend.

What is the primary weather concern?

No significant concerns through Thursday. A few light showers.

I am watching another system this weekend. Timing and rainfall totals remain a question.

Here are this morning’s temperatures as of 4 AM.

Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video or graphics below for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

Good morning, everyone. I hope you had a nice weekend.

The good news is that warmer air is moving into the region!

There will be a range in temperatures today.

You can see that on this map.

A bit cooler over southeast Illinois into far northwest Kentucky. A bit warmer over our southwest counties.

Tuesday will also be mild. Check this out!

Tuesday’s high temperatures.

Wednesday will deliver above-average temperatures, but a bit cooler behind the cold front.

Light rain is likely late Tuesday and especially on Tuesday night.

Rainfall totals have decreased since a few days ago. The system has trended southward.

Here are the projected rainfall totals for Tuesday PM into Wednesday AM.

Not enough to break the ongoing drought.

The bulk of that light rain will fall on Tuesday night. A few showers may linger into early Wednesday morning. Mainly in the Bootheel and along the Kentucky/Tennessee border southward.

The bulk of Wednesday and Wednesday night will be dry.

Let me show you the rainfall probabilities.

Notice the sharp difference from north to south.

This is for Tuesday night

Double-click on the two graphics to enlarge them.

This is for Wednesday

Another system will approach the region late in the week. Rain chances are mainly centered on Thursday through Saturday.

Significant questions remain about the systems track and intensity.

We know that the vast majority of the data indicates rain. There does not appear to be enough cold air for a snowstorm.

The models show varying intensities for the system.

For example

Here is the GFS model

It tracks the area of low pressure through Tennessee

Here is the EU model

It tracks the area of low pressure through Illinois

Here is the Canadian model

It tracks the area of low pressure through Missouri and Illinois

Comparing four models

The bottom line is that rain chances will increase later this week and into the weekend.

I will monitor the system’s track. Also, the intensity of the low-pressure area. We may need to include some thunder in the forecast. Depending on the system’s track.

Again, we need rain. Let’s hope we get some.

Here is the latest drought monitor map. Our region is in drought.

Rainfall totals for both the Tuesday PM event and the weekend event. This has been shifting southward and may continue to shift southward depending on the storms track.

If heavy storms form to our south, they could reduce our rainfall totals.

Double-click the graphic to enlarge it.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.

Blue is snow.

GFS Model

Long range

This is the Tuesday PM system

This is the Thursday system into the weekend.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Red is locally heavy rain. Blue is snow.

EC model

This is the Tuesday PM into Wednesday Am system

This is the late-week system.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
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