February 9, 2025: Monitoring winter weather and rain.

Good morning, everyone.

Welcome to Sunday! I hope you had a nice Saturday!

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4 PM UPDATE

No changes from my morning thoughts.

Temperatures are marginal for this snow event. A wet slushy trace to one inch is the most likely outcome. Perhaps a band of one to two inches across portions of the area.

I will monitor northwest KY where snow could linger a bit longer into Tuesday PM.

Road impacts should be limited because of marginal temperatures. Treated roads will be wet. Watch untreated surfaces.

A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

Happy Sunday, everyone. I hope you are having a nice weekend. Welcome to SuperBowl Sunday!

A calm weather day ahead of us. Some clouds. Cool temperatures. Don’t be fooled, because we have an active weather pattern ahead of us. Multiple rounds of precipitation.

Our Saturday rain/drizzle event has pushed on off to the east.

Here were the 7 AM regional temperatures

You can check the current conditions at this link -> CLICK HERE

It will be dry today. Quite a few clouds.

Chilly temperatures tonight. It is still February, after all. Spring isn’t far off, but we aren’t quite finished with winter.

We are watching an active pattern developing tomorrow into the weekend. No less than three storm systems will track across the region with a wintry mix and rain (quite a bit of rain for some).

Locally, the flood risk doesn’t look extreme. There could, however, be some overland field flooding, ditches flooded, sharp rises on streams, and nuisance flooding of commonly flooded roadways. Especially by the mid-week and late-week system. We will need to monitor rain totals, especially over Kentucky and Tennessee. See those below.

Two precipitation events between Monday and Thursday.

Temperatures are going to be marginal for snow and ice Monday PM into Tuesday PM. With that said, it will be cold enough for some accumulation across the northern half of the region. Treated roadways should be okay. Untreated roadways could be slick. Monday night into Tuesday.

If temperatures were slightly colder, this would be a bigger event. Marginal temperatures will cut down snow totals.

The good news is that the Wednesday system has been trending warmer. Confidence in system number one is high. Confidence in system number two is lower.

If you have travel plans in the region (or northward) then monitor updates over the coming days. Some wintry precipitation is likely to develop.

System one (MON/TUE)

We have increasing chances of precipitation area-wide Monday afternoon into Tuesday afternoon/evening.

It appears the battle-zone between snow and rain will be draped across southeast Missouri eastward along/near the Ohio River in southern Illinois/west Kentucky and then eastward from there.

Areas just to the south of that line should monitor updates. It could be close.

Southern counties should be mostly rain with no travel impacts.

Bottom line on the Monday/Tuesday system
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Bottom line on the Wednesday/Thursday system

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The first system arrives Monday afternoon/night and continues into Tuesday. Ending Tuesday night.

This is my current forecast.

Our northern counties have the highest probability of receiving sleet and snow (I did remove the freezing rain) Monday PM into Tuesday. Some light snow/sleet accumulation is likely.

For now, it looks like a dusting to perhaps a couple of inches of wet snow (and a small amount of sleet).

Areas to the south should be mostly rain. I will keep a close eye on that freezing line.

Adjustments are still possible. Don’t walk away with one forecast and think that will be it. Monitor updated forecast.

Confidence continues to increase in the final forecast.

There remain some questions about the eastern portion of that pink middle zone (especially as you move away from my forecast counties).

I made some small adjustments from 24 hours ago.

This red zone could have higher totals, but confidence is low. Again, this is for the Monday/Tuesday event.

Here is the NAM model future-cast radar for the Monday and Tuesday event. The time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the animation.

Blue is snow. Pink is ice. Green and yellow represent plain old rain.

As you can see the region is split in half. Notice that second little wave Tuesday night on the NAM over our eastern counties. We will need to watch that over mainly northwest Kentucky.

Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.

Here is the EC model. The NAM and EC are fairly close in their presentations of the snow vs rain line.
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Then, we have a brief lull in the precipitation as we move through Tuesday night.

Another system quickly moves in Wednesday into Thursday!Confidence is increasing that this system will be a bit warmer.

Precipitation could begin and end as a wintry mix, but it looks mostly like a rain event. Still a few days away (so monitor updates).Here are my initial thoughts.

Again, adjustments are possible. I currently have most of the region in rain.I made some southwest to northeast adjustments to the rain/snow line from 24 hours ago.
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Here is what the EC model shows for Wednesday evening. Blue is snow. Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain.

Let’s look at some snow accumulation maps.

Here is the latest GFS model. Snow totals for the Monday/Tuesday time-frame.

I would take the general idea and placement from this vs specific numbers.

If temperatures were a few degrees colder, then these totals would be two or three times greater. Marginal temperatures are going to hurt snow totals. Melting.

Here is the NAM model snowfall totals.

Here is the NOAA/WPC snowfall forecast.

This is for the Monday/Tuesday event.

What is the probability of one inch or more of snow? Here is what they are showing.

This is a static image, so you can’t click on those buttons.

Here is what the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS put out earlier this morning. My forecast is in agreement with theirs. Very close.

This is the Monday/Tuesday event.

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Let’s look at the rainfall or melted totals from system one and two.

Here is another view of precipitation (melted) totals.

System one and two combined. Monday through Thursday.

You can double click these two graphics to enlarge them. The print is pretty small.

Here are the seven day rainfall/precipitation totals. This includes another system Friday night into the weekend!

As mentioned above, another system is likely to bring rain to the region Friday and Saturday. That system looks warm with showers and perhaps even some rumbles of thunder.

Here is what that looks like on the GFS model. The time-stamp is located in the upper left.

Here are two videos.

The St Louis, MO NWS posted this one

This covers my northwest counties.

Here is my seven day video update

The latest eight to fourteen day temperature outlook looks chilly. Blue represents below average temperatures.

We will just have to see if precipitation accompanies these colder temperatures.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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