Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Saturday night update

2/9/2018 Future-cast radar shows a mess. Those purple and pink colors are freezing drizzle and sleet. You can see it spread across our region SAT night into SUN. A spattering of ice. Time stamp upper left.
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February 10, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy.  Freezing rain and freezing drizzle developing across portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Patchy rain showers across the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and NW Tennessee.  Temperatures steady or slowly falling.  The best chance of freezing drizzle this afternoon will be along a line from Poplar Bluff, MO to near Cape Girardeau, MO to near Vienna, IL and then north northeast into the Carmi, IL area.  Keep In mind the freezing line will slowly sag southward today.  Monitor your temperatures.  Freezing drizzle can cause decks, porches, sidewalks, and other surfaces to become ice covered.  A thin layer of ice.  Bridges will freeze first.
Temperatures:  Temperatures steady or slowly falling through the afternoon hours.  MO ~  28 to 36  (warmest over the Bootheel of MO)    IL ~ 28  to 38      KY ~ 36 to 42 (mildest towards Hopkinsville)
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 70%          TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to patchy/scattered north and more widespread from the Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
Wind chill values: 20 to 30
Accumulating snow or ice: Light freezing drizzle is possible.  This could cause a thin glaze of ice on surfaces.
Winds: East and northeast winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Icy surfaces where freezing drizzle develops.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates

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Saturday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: ** Freezing Drizzle Alert **  Monitor where the freezing line is tonight.   Cloudy.  Colder.  Rain and drizzle changing to freezing rain and freezing drizzle.  Small chance of sleet.   The freezing line will of course determine who receives plain rain and those who receive freezing rain that will ice surfaces.  At this time it appears the freezing line may make it as far south as the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.  From there the freezing line will extend towards Mayfield, KY and then towards Owensboro.  Counties along and north of that line should be at or below freezing.  There is a margin of error of 20 miles.  The main concern will be a thin layer of ice on surfaces.  Please watch the first step in the morning.  What looks wet could be ice.
Temperatures:    MO ~  25 to 30      IL ~ 25 to 30        KY ~ 28 to 34 (warmest near Hopkinsville and coolest as you move towards Ohio River)
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 80%    TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread light freezing rain and freezing drizzle.  Rain showers where temperatures remain above freezing.
Wind chill values: 18 to 28
Accumulating snow or ice: A thin layer of ice may cover surfaces.  Monitor updates.  Temperatures will vary across the region.
Winds: North and northeast winds 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  A thin layer of ice on bridges, porches, decks, sidewalks, and perhaps untreated roadways.  Use care.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Have a plan B and monitor updates.

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February 11, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy.  Cold.  A chance of light freezing drizzle or freezing rain during the morning hours.  Rain will occur where temperatures remain above freezing.  Temperatures may rise above freezing during the mid to late morning hours.  The freezing drizzle would then turn to light rain.  Another surge of moisture is forecast to move out of Arkansas into the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, extreme southern Illinois, and northwest Tennessee during the late afternoon and evening hours.  This would be a mixture of rain and freezing rain.  Monitor updates.
Temperatures:  MO ~  32 to 36       IL ~  32 to 36       KY ~ 32 to 36
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 60%          TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early. A lull.  Then Another surface of precipitation late in the day moving in from Arkansas and moving northeast.
Wind chill values: 25 to 35
Accumulating snow or ice: Thin layer of ice is possible.
Winds: North and northeast winds 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Icy surfaces.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates

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Sunday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A period of rain and freezing rain during the first half of the night.  Best chances will be from the Missouri Bootheel towards Paducah and then northeast towards Madisonville.  From there southward.  North of there could have scattered light freezing rain or freezing drizzle, as well, but coverage won’t be as great.
Temperatures:    MO ~  18 to 24      IL ~ 18  to 24        KY ~ 20 to 25
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered north.  A bit more widespread as you move towards the MO Bootheel and along the Ohio River in KY/IL from there eastward.
Wind chill values: 12 to 22
Accumulating snow or ice: Icy surfaces are possible
Winds: North and northeast winds 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Icy roadways are possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Have a plan B and monitor updates

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February 12, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~  38 to 44       IL ~  38 to 44      KY ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 30 to 35
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North and northeast winds 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Monday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  A few clouds.  Chilly.
Temperatures:    MO ~  28 to 34      IL ~ 28 to 34        KY ~ 30 to 35
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 22 to 30
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: East and northeast winds 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No

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February 13, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds.  Milder.
Temperatures:  MO ~  48 to 54       IL ~  48 to 54     KY ~ 48 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%      IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%          TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none, but monitor updates.
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: Winds becoming variable at 4 to 8 mph.  Winds become south as the day wears on.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Tuesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of isolated showers.
Temperatures:    MO ~  35 to 40      IL ~ 35 to 40         KY ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind chill values: 30 to 35
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some scattered wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No

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February 14, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~  55 to 60       IL ~  55 to 60     KY ~  55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated showers
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates

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Wednesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of a few showers.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 46 to 52      IL ~ 46 to 52        KY ~ 46 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some scattered wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No, but monitor updates

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Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link.

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Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link.

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This first graphic only covers my northern tier of forecast counties.  This is for late tonight into Saturday morning.
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This next graphic is for most of the region Saturday night into Sunday night.
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Late Friday night there is a chance of light freezing drizzle or freezing rain across our extreme northern counties.  That would include St. Genevieve, Randolph, Perry, and Jefferson counties.

Here is the graphic for our extreme northern counties.  This covers Friday night into early Saturday morning.

Keep in mind, it only takes a hint of freezing drizzle to cause issues.  Roads will initially be warm.  Bridges freeze first.
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Saturday night into Sunday night

This graphic shows you the accumulation probabilities.  This one covers west Kentucky.  The exact placement of the 32° line is still in question.  These numbers may change as confidence increases.

The risk of freezing drizzle or freezing rain is fairly low for western Kentucky.  We will need to monitor the northwest Kentucky counties near Golconda to Evansville.  The freezing line may dip into those areas.  Monitor updates.

Keep in mind, it only takes a hint of freezing drizzle to cause issues.
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Saturday night into Sunday night
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This graphic shows you the accumulation probabilities.  This one covers most of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  The exact placement of the 32° line is still in question.  These numbers may change as confidence increases.

This is currently anticipated to be a light wintry precipitation event.  Some models show a bit more ice than others.  This will need to be closely monitored.

Initially, roads will be too warm for ice to accumulate.  Bridges, of course, will freeze first.  Sidewalks, porches, and parking lots have a better chance of freezing, as well.  Use care.  What may look wet could actually be ice.

Keep in mind, it only takes a hint of freezing drizzle to cause issues.
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Saturday night into Sunday night

This graphic shows you the accumulation probabilities.  This one covers the Missouri Bootheel (Dunklin and Pemiscot Counties) and northwest Tennessee (Lake, Obion, Weakley, and Henry.  The risk in this area would likely not be Saturday night.  I will need to monitor Sunday night.  If precipitation develops Sunday night then some ice could occur in the areas mentioned below.

Keep in mind, it only takes a hint of freezing drizzle to cause issues.
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What does 0.05 to 0.10″ of freezing rain look like?
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What about 0.20″ to 0.30″
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Use care this weekend. What may look wet could actually be ice.  Black ice.  Black ice looks like wet payment.
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Forecast:

HIGHLIGHTS

1.  Dry and mild today.  Today is the pick day of the weekend.  Highs in the 50’s.
2.  Precipitation chances increase Friday night and should linger into at least Sunday
3.  Another light winter weather event is on tap for the region.  Location will again be key to precipitation type.
4.  The best chance of freezing rain and sleet will be Saturday night into Sunday morning.  Monitor updates.
5.  I am monitoring Sunday night for another system.  That could also produce wintry precipitation.  Monitor updates.

High confidence today through Saturday afternoon.

If you can enjoy today’s weather then please do!  Today will be the nicest day for the weekend.  You can expect high temperatures well into the 50’s.  A nice change from our recent cold spell.

We should see a mix of sun and clouds today.  We will remain precipitation free through the afternoon hours.
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Here is the forecast high temperature map.  Temperatures could be a bit higher than shown here.  Either way, it will be nice compared to recent days.
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Compare that to this chart.  This is the temperature chart for 3 PM Saturday

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This chart is for 6 AM Sunday.
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Enjoy those temperatures, because they won’t last.  The front will begin tracking southward Friday afternoon.  Here is a temperature animation.  Time stamp upper left.

The cold air moves into our region Friday night over our extreme northern counties (Farmington, MO towards Mt Vernon, IL).  We will need to monitor that area for precipitation with the colder air.

The colder air makes a bigger push into our region Saturday afternoon and night.  This is when we need to monitor freezing rain chances.
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We will have scattered showers and drizzle Friday night into Saturday.

A light wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will develop behind the cold front.  This will most likely occur Saturday night into Sunday morning.  Another round of precipitation is possible Sunday night, but confidence on that event is a bit lower.

Remember, bridges and sidewalks/porches freeze first.
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I am confident there will be precipitation in the region this weekend.  The finer details will need to be worked out.

I believe most of our region will remain rain Friday night into Saturday.  The front may stay just far enough north to keep us out of the winter weather zone.  We will need to monitor our extreme northern counties (as mentioned above).

The further north you travel the greater the risk of wintry precipitation and icy road conditions Friday night.

Some of you may wonder what causes freezing rain vs rain vs sleet.

It actually has to do with the air aloft.  Typically, during freezing rain events, there is a warm wedge of air several thousand feet above the surface.  When snowflakes fall through that warm air they melt.  Snowflakes can not return to a snowflake state after melting.  The precipitation then becomes either rain, freezing rain, or sleet.

What determines those three precipitation types?  How deep the cold air is at the surface.  If it is deep enough the water can freeze and become ice pellets.  That is called sleet.  If the cold air, at the surface, is shallow, then freezing rain occurs.

This graphic explains it.  See the warmer wedge of air aloft?

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We will have the potential of decent rain totals.  We do need rain, so this is welcome.  We can do without the ice.

Here are my latest rain probability charts.  I have separated the region.

This graphic covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky.

This is what I consider northwest Kentucky.

Remember, you can click graphics to enlarge them.
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This graphic covers the Missouri Bootheel, most of western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
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Here is the latest NOAA forecast for rainfall totals.  The first graphic covers the northeast half of the region.  The second graphic covers the rest of the area.  These are RAIN totals and have nothing to do with snow, sleet, or freezing rain.  These are melted totals.

Click image to enlarge
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Click to enlarge

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REMEMBER:  Models are for guidance.  They are not gospel.  Models are non-human algorithms spit out by computers.  Meteorologists produce forecasts based off a blend of models.  No single model will be correct.

Let’s take a look at some future-cast radar animations.  What I want you to note are the difference in the placement of the rain vs the wintry mix.

Green is rain.  Dark green is heavier rain.  Yellow is heavy rain.  Blue is snow.  Purple is sleet.  Pink is freezing rain.  The darker the shading the heavier the precipitation.

Notice quite a bit of rain is anticipated for the southern and southeastern half of our region.  Lesser totals as you move north.

GFS model future-cast radar animation
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NAM model future-cast radar animation

Green is rain.  Dark green is heavier rain.  Yellow is heavy rain.  Blue is snow.  Purple is sleet.  Pink/red is freezing rain.  The darker the shading the heavier the precipitation.
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GEM model future-cast radar animation
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Let’s look at some totals.  Take these with a grain of salt.  I am showing you these so you get the general idea that some wintry mix is possible this weekend.  Most of the guidance is showing light totals.  Of course, it only takes a little bit of freezing rain to cause problems.  Ice is ice.

GFS model snow totals

The better snow chances will occur north of our region.  The cold layer is just not deep enough for much snow locally.
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GFS model sleet totals.  Perhaps some chance of light sleet.
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GFS model freezing rain totals

Remember, with freezing rain you can usually cut the model totals in half.

A smattering of freezing rain.  Remember, it only takes a trace of freezing rain to make objects slick.  Bridges freeze first.

The GFS does bring light freezing rain into our southern counties, as well.  The best chance of that occurring would be Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.  Low confidence on that.
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NAM model snow totals
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NAM model sleet totals.  Perhaps some light sleet in our region.
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NAM models freezing rain totals

Remember, with freezing rain you can usually cut the model totals in half.
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GEM model snow totals
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GEM model freezing rain and sleet totals

Remember, with freezing rain you can usually cut the model totals in half.

These are fairly light totals.  Cut the number in half and you end up with 0.05″ to perhaps 0.15″ of freezing rain.  Of course, it only takes a little bit of freezing rain to cause travel problems.
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Bottom line:

Monitor updates concerning the Friday night through Sunday night time-frame.  Portions of the region will likely receive a light wintry mix of precipitation.  Icy roads and surfaces will be the main concern.  Roads are warm.  It may take time for there to be issues on roadways.  That DOES NOT count bridges.  Bridges will always freeze first.

Be care on porches, decks, and sidewalks.  What looks wet could be ice.

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We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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