Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Here are your Beau Dodson Weather Radars and lightning trackers.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
Beau’s Local Radars

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Real time lightning tracker system two.
Lightning data one

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
Lightning data two

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Good morning, everyone.

Welcome to the weekend!  I hope you have a nice one.

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

I am experimenting with simplifying the daily blog.  Send me comments at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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We are waking up to scattered showers.

We will have scattered showers in the forecast today and tonight.  It won’t rain all of the time.  On and off chances.  A slight chance of thunder, but thankfully no severe thunderstorms!

Here is today’s future-cast radar.  This takes us through the day and into the night.  You can see the showers in green.

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Here is the latest rainfall outlook for today and tonight (some rain fell last night).

An additional 0.01″ to 0.30″ is anticipated.  Locally higher if thunderstorms form.

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It will turn colder tonight and tomorrow as a cold front sweeps across the region.  Nothing extreme.  Just some normal February chill.

This sets the stage for an active precipitation pattern next week.

Several rounds of precipitation are likely Monday through Saturday.  Three distinct systems to track.

If you have travel plans in the region (or northward) then monitor updates over the coming days.  Some wintry precipitation is likely to develop.

System one.

We have increasing chances of precipitation area-wide Monday afternoon into Tuesday night.

The biggest question is who ends up with freezing rain, sleet, snow, or just plain old rain!

I have a feeling it will be all of the above from north to south.  Remember, I forecast from Mt Vernon, Illinois south to northwest Tennessee.
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The first system is still a few days away!  So, forecast adjustments are still possible.  I will fine tune these graphics with each passing day.

For now, this is my thinking.

Our northern and northwestern counties have the highest probability of receiving freezing rain, sleet, and snow Monday PM into Tuesday.  Some light accumulation possible.

For now, it looks like a dusting to perhaps a couple of inches of snow (and a small amount of sleet/freezing rain).

Areas to the south will just need to monitor future forecasts. It may be too warm for accumulation snow or ice.

Adjustments are possible.  Don’t walk away with one forecast and think that will be it.  Monitor updated forecast.

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Here is the GFS model future-cast radar for the Monday and Tuesday event.  The time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the animation.

Blue is snow.  Pink is ice.  Green and yellow represent plain old rain.

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

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Then, we have a brief lull in the precipitation late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Another system quickly moves in Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

A lot of questions surround the strength of the second system.

A stronger system could mean it tracks a bit farther north.  That would push the snow north, as well.

Here are my initial thoughts.  Again, adjustments are possible.

I currently have most of the region in rain.

Perhaps ending as a wintry mix on Thursday.  At this time, accumulation appears light.

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Here is what the GFS model shows for Wednesday evening.  Blue is snow.  Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain.

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The trend on the mid-week system has been to push the accumulating snow farther north.

It is looking more and more like rain for our region (or most of our region).  Again, still a bit early for certainties.

It could begin and end as a wintry mix.  That will need to be monitored.

Here is the latest GFS model.  Snow totals for the Wednesday/Thursday time-frame.

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Let’s take a quick look at the GEFS model ensembles.

Each square represents one run of the GEFS model.  The general idea is that we look for agreement in the data/squares.

The more squares that agree, the higher the probability that will be the outcome.

This has been trending wetter and not whiter.

Blue is snow.  Pink is ice.  Green and yellow/orange represent rain.

This model keep most of the accumulating snow to our north.

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Here are two graphics that the NWS posted on social media.

This first one is from the Paducah, Kentucky, National Weather Service/NOAA.

This is the Monday night into Tuesday event.

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Here is what the Paducah, Kentucky, National Weather Service/NOAA posted concerning the Wednesday/Thursday event.

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Another system will be possible next Friday and Saturday.  That will be showers and thunderstorms.  Perhaps heavy rain, as well.

Here is what that looks like on the GFS model.

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Let’s look at the seven day precipitation totals.  This is liquid (including melted snow and ice).

Wet pattern!  Double click on images to enlarge them.

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I will know more with each passing day.  Monitor updates.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.