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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? LOW CHANCE. A few lightning strikes are possible Saturday and Saturday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
.3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. We will need to watch several precipitation events next week. If they end up rain vs snow/ice, then some flooding could occur. This will be highly dependent on storm track.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? POSSIBLE. Next week will be colder. Several rounds of wintry precipitation will be possible across at least portions of the region. This could lead to lower wind chill values.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? YES. Several rounds of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be possible next week. Measurable snow or ice is likely across portions of the region. We will need to monitor each system and the track of the area of low pressure. That will be key to precipitation type in each county.
8. Is freezing rain in the forecast? YES. Several rounds of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be possible next week. Measurable snow or ice is likely across portions of the region. We will need to monitor each system and the track of the area of low pressure. That will be key to precipitation type in each county.
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Do you have storm anxiety? Or, perhaps someone you know does.
The Paducah, Kentucky, NWS has announced a storm anxiety webinar.
the webinar on storm anxiety has been rescheduled to Feb. 27 at 6 PM CST!
The registration link is
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7149421972512193625
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Field and Brush Fire weather risk level.
Friday: 4. Low risk.
Friday night: 4. Low risk.
Saturday: 4. Low risk.
Saturday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Several chances of precipitation are expected over the next week. First, widespread light rain Friday night through Saturday. Rain or possibly some wintry precipitation is possible late Monday through Tuesday next week. Overall, fuels will remain wet with plentiful cloud cover and poor mixing.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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Notes:
THE FORECAST WILL TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll further down to see the region by region forecast.
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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook
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A quick glance. 48-hour forecast Graphics
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Friday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Cool. A chance of widely scattered drizzle or light showers developing.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri: 36° to 42°
Southeast Missouri: 40° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel: 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois: 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois: 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties): 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky: 44° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky: 45° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border): 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee: 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35° during the morning. In the 40s and 50s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 5:27 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Thickening clouds. Rain likely. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri: 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri: 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel: 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois: 36° to 38°
Southern Illinois: 36° to 40°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties): 38° to 40°
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area): 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky: 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border): 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee: 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B, and monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 12:24 PM
Moonset: 3:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Warmer. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri: 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri: 64° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel: 66° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois: 63° to 66°
Southern Illinois: 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties): 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky: 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky: 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border): 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee: 66° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast becoming south southwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 38° during the morning. In the 50s and 60s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 5:28 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly before midnight. Rain may end as a rain snow mix over our northern counties with no impacts expected.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous early. Ending west to east
Timing of the precipitation: Mostly before midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri: 26° to 28°
Southeast Missouri: 30° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel: 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois: 26° to 28°
Southern Illinois: 28° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties): 30° to 32°
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area): 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky: 32° to 35°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border): 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee: 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B during the evening, and monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 1:24 PM
Moonset: 4:15 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Coo. A slight chance of rain.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri: 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri: 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel: 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois: 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois: 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties): 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky: 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky: 48° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border): 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee: 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 34° during the morning. In the 30s and 40s during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 5:29 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain or snow. Mainly far south.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri: 26° to 30°
Southeast Missouri: 30° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel: 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois: 26° to 30°
Southern Illinois: 30° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties): 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area): 32° to 35°
The Pennyrile area of western Kentucky: 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border): 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee: 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. I will monitor the risk of light freezing precipitation. Confidence in that is low.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 2:28 PM
Moonset: 5:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion
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- Hyper-active weather pattern into much of next week.
- Multiple rounds of precipitation through next Friday. Some frozen.
- Rain likely tonight and tomorrow. Ending Saturday night.
- Wintry precipitation likely next week across portions of the region.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
Good day, everyone! Welcome to the weekend. We have some active weather ahead of us.
Today and tonight
We will have a mix of sun and clouds today. No major weather concerns.
Here was the 7 am satellite view. Lot of clouds.
Thickening clouds today. A chance of light drizzle or showers later today. Especially over southeast Missouri.
This rain will be ahead of our next storm system.
Clouds thicken and lower tonight with numerous showers on radar. Perhaps an isolated thunderstorm, as well. The risk of lightning appears minimal tonight. No severe weather concerns.
Patchy fog are possible, as well.
Precipitation totals tonight will be on the light side.
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Saturday into Sunday night
You can expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to dot the radars on Saturday. No severe weather concerns, thankfully.
It won’t rain all of the time. On and off.
It will be warmer Saturday as a warm front moves through our region. Highs will top out in the fifties and sixties with mostly southerly winds.
As we move into the afternoon hours, a cold front will sweep across the region. This will bring an end to the rain chances by Saturday night. It will bring colder temperatures, as well.
The rain could end as novelty rain/snow mix late Saturday night. No impacts. Colder by Sunday morning.
Here are the forecasted rain totals through Sunday morning.
Nothing extreme. Ranging from less than 0.25″ over southeast Missouri. And in the 0.10″ to 0.35″ range over southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
Double click on images to enlarge them.
Short-Range Future-cast Radar
Let’s look at the future-cast radar. This is the high resolution NAM 3K model. The time-stamp is located in the upper left.
This is what radar might look like. It’s a model.
This is for today into Sunday noon. You can see the scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some dry time, as well. On and off showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
Double click on animations to enlarge it.
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Sunday night into next week.
A complex weather forecast as we move into Sunday night onward.
My Current Thoughts
Confidence is increasing that our central and northern counties will have snow and ice next week.
Confidence is lower as you move towards the MO/AR and KY/TN border. We will just have to watch the boundary.
A lot of data looks like the winter storm back in early January. That storm brought snow and sleet to our northern counties. Sleet and freezing rain across our central counties. Mostly rain over our southern counties.
We have several more days to forecast this series of events. Confidence will begin to increase with each passing day. Monitor updates, as always. It’s a complicated forecast.
Temperatures will be tricky to forecast from north to south. A boundary will be draped in or near our region. It will be cold north of the boundary. It will be warm south of the boundary.
Disturbances will move along the boundary and provide lift for precipitation.
Temperatures will be the deciding factor in the precipitation type. We could have a wide range of precipitation. From freezing rain, sleet, snow, and plain old rain. And for some, perhaps all of the above!
It remains too soon to know freezing rain, sleet, and snow totals. We need to draw a bit closer to the event time-line to start talking about totals.
Confidence is increasing that several winter weather events will impact our region next week. The NWS will need to issue winter weather advisories and winter storm watches/warnings. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app.
The Paducah, KY, NWS sent out this graphic.
I certainly can’t argue with that assessment.
It is possible that each winter weather event shifts north and south. Some areas could see the frozen precipitation chance to plain old rain and then back and forth depending on temperatures.
This will make for a complicated driving forecast. Icy roads are certainly a good bet across at least a good chunk of the region.
Let me show you some graphics.
What is the probability of 4 or more inches of snow in a 24-hour time-frame? Let’s go to the EC ensembles. This is the European model.
This first graphic covers the Monday/Tuesday snow chances. Freezing rain and sleet are possible, as well.
At this distance we are looking for generalities. As you can see, our central and northern counties have the best chance for several inches of snow.
Then, a second system comes into the region as we move into Wednesday/Thursday.
The EC model has that system a bit farther north and it clips our region.
Will it be right? That is the big question. The GEFS data is colder and farther south with all of the frozen precipitation.
Let’s look at what the probabilities are for three or more inches of snow throughout the entire week.
GEFS model
EC model
Canadian model
Here is the GEFS model. This is total snowfall through next week. This is the MEAN of all of its runs.
As you can see, it is a bit colder and farther south with the snow and ice.
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Long-Range Future-cast Radar
Let’s look at the future-cast radar. The time-stamp is located in the upper left.
Blue is snow. Pink is ice. Green and yellow represent plain old rain.
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
The Canadian model
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The NOAA/WPC graphics show at least a chance of frozen precipitation for several days next week.
These next four graphics show you the probability of 0.25″ melted frozen precipitation. In other words, if you were to melt the snow it would total at least 0.25″. With a 10:1 snow ratio, that would be at least 2.5″ of snow.
Monday and Tuesday.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Wednesday and Thursday
Thursday and Friday
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Short-Range Future-cast Radar
Let’s look at the future-cast radar. This is the high resolution Hrrr model. The time-stamp is located in the upper left.
This is for today into Friday morning. You can see the scattered showers and thunderstorms. Plenty of dry time, as well. On and off showers and thunderstorms.
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
Future-cast Radars
Let’s look at the future-cast radar. This is the GFS model. Time-stamp upper left.
This shows you Sunday through next Wednesday night. As you can see, a few waves of precipitation will be possible.
Too early to know if it will be freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Rain, as well. We could have all of the above from north to south in the region. Monitor updates.
This is just one model of many.
Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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