Rain totals keep going up.
Most of this will fall late Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. A widespread one to two inches appears likely. Whether we see above two inches will need to be monitored.
WPC NOAA forecast
GFS model
Short/quick Saturday evening update.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
I added a confidence meter to the seven day forecast.
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48-hour forecast
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Sunday to Sunday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. I can’t rule out lightning next Wednesday and Wednesday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I will keep an eye on Wednesday.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Not at this time.
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching Friday.
6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? Not at this time.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Sunday, February 5, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warmer. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 5:24 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 7 to 14 mph. Becoming variable in direction.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 5:22 PM
Moonset: 7:15 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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Monday, February 6, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Morning sun giving way to increasing clouds. Mild. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 5:25 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. Mild. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Southerly 15 to 35 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:22 PM
Moonset: 7:44 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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Tuesday, February 7, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 55° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 55° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 55° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 55° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 5:26 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 35° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 35° to 40°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast becoming east 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 7:22 PM
Moonset: 8:10 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Wednesday, February 8, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the weather radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 5:28 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely. A chance of thunderstorms. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: South 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the weather radars.
Moonrise: 8:20 PM
Moonset: 8:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Thursday, February 9, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Windy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 53° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 53° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 5:29 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers or snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 33° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 33° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest to west 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 9:20 PM
Moonset: 8:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Friday, February 10, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Low Confidence
Friday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of rain or snow. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 35° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 35° to 40°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 35° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 35° to 40°
Southern Illinois ~ 35° to 40°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 35° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 35° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 35° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 35° to 40°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 35° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 5:30 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 25° to 30°
Southeast Missouri ~ 25° to 30°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 25° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 25° to 30°
Southern Illinois ~ 25° to 30°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 25° to 30°
Far western Kentucky ~ 25° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 25° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 25° to 30°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 25° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction: W NW 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 10:20 PM
Moonset: 9:20 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Saturday, February 11, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy. A slight chance of snow flurries. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 33° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 33° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 33° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 33° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 5:30 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 23° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 23° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 23° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 23° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:23 PM
Moonset: 9:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Potential rain totals. As always, totals will vary based on thunderstorms or training of precipitation over the same areas.
A widespread 0.7 to 1.4″. Pockets of 1.4″ to 2.0″+.
Enjoy the mild temperatures!
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. I will monitor Friday.
