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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
Very low confidence in the Monday and Tuesday forecast.
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Friday to Friday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. Flurries possible tonight. Light snow possible Saturday night. A dusting or so possible.
Another chance of a wintry mix Monday into Tuesday. I can’t rule out accumulation.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? N0.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? Yes. Intervals of cold this weekend into next week. Monitor the wind chill value forecast.
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February 5, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Becoming sunny as clouds depart.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 6 to 12 mph with gusts above 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 5:25 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. Chilly. A snow shower will be possible. Little or no accumulation. Mainly over Illinois and Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 22° to 26° South IL 22° to 26° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° West KY 26° to 30° NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: South becoming north at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 14° to 20°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:15 AM
Moonset: 11:44 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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February 6, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Increasing clouds from the west. A chance of rain showers. Turning colder during the PM hours. Rain may be mixed with snow.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° SE MO 35° to 38° South IL 36° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest 6 to 12 mph gusty at times during the PM
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 5:26 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a snow shower. Bitterly cold. Light snow accumulation possible. Mostly our far northern counties. Most of the region will not receive accumulation. That is the latest.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 25° SE MO 14° to 20° South IL 14° to 20° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 22° West KY 20° to 22° NW TN 20° to 24°
Wind direction and speed: North becoming south 5 to 10 mph with gusts above 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor road conditions. Cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:26 AM
Moonset: 12:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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February 7, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° SE MO 28° to 34° South IL 28° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 32° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 34° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 5:27 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 24° SE MO 16° to 24° South IL 16° to 24° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 24° West KY 22° to 25° NW TN 23° to 26°
Wind direction and speed: East 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:35 AM
Moonset: 1:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Very low confidence in the Monday and Tuesday forecast.
February 8, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low Confidence
Monday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A rain or snow shower possible. Colder over our northern counties vs southern. The placement of the cold front will determine temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° SE MO 38° to 45° South IL 38° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° West KY 45° to 50° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 5:28 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of snow showers or a wintry mix. Turning colder. A wide range of temperatures north to south. Keep that in mind. The placement of the cold front will determine temperatures from one county to the next.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 30° SE MO 16° to 22° South IL 16° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° West KY 26° to 30° NW TN 30° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold air. Monitor snow chances.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 4:39 AM
Moonset: 2:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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February 9, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Rain will be possible over some counties. Monitor temperatures. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36° SE MO 25° to 30° South IL 26° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° West KY 30° to 35° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: North 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Snow and ice could cause slick spots. Monitor.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 5:29 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of snow and a wintry mix.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 15° to 20° SE MO 12° to 16° South IL 12° to 16° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 15° to 20° West KY 20° to 24° NW TN 22° to 25°
Wind direction and speed: North 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy patches on roadways if we have snow. Bitterly cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 5:36 AM
Moonset: 3:16 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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February 10, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny and cold. A snow shower will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 24° to 28° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 28° West KY 25° to 30° NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: North 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
Sunset: 5:30 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of snow showers. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 14° to 18° SE MO 12° to 16° South IL 12° to 16° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 15° to 20° West KY 20° to 24° NW TN 22° to 25°
Wind direction and speed: North 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor. Bitterly cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 6:24 AM
Moonset: 4:23 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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February 11, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny and cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 24° to 28° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 28° West KY 25° to 30° NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 5:31 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 14° to 18° SE MO 12° to 16° South IL 12° to 16° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 15° to 20° West KY 20° to 24° NW TN 22° to 25°
Wind direction and speed: North 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor. Bitterly cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 7:05 AM
Moonset: 5:29 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through February 15th. Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Intervals of cold air shots Saturday into much of next week. Some periods may have bitterly cold wind chill values. Monitor the daily numbers.
Light snow possible Saturday and Saturday night. Any accumulation will be light.
I am monitoring precipitation chances Monday through Tuesday night. I can’t rule out some snow or a mix, at times. Low confidence.
Beau’s Weather Talk App by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Colder air moving into the region.
- I continue to monitor snow chances Saturday and Saturday night (rain and snow).
- I continue to adjust temperatures and precipitation chances next week. Very low confidence in the daily details Monday and Tuesday.
- I am watching precipitation chances/type Monday and Tuesday.
The spring outlook was posted yesterday. See below.
Widespread rain moved across the region yesterday. Rain totals were mostly in the 0.25″ to 0.50″ range. Nothing too extreme.
Heavy snow fell across Iowa into northern Illinois. There was even a blizzard warning in Iowa!
It will be colder today. We are going to have to deal with intervals of cold air into next weekend.
A sharp cold front will divide our local area beginning Saturday and lasting into the beginning of the new work week.
The placement of that front is key to temperature forecasts. There will be a ten to twenty degree difference from north of the front to south of the front.
This front has been nothing but a forecast headache. Models have done poorly over the past week in attempting to figure out just how far south to place the front.
To add to the complications, precipitation chances will be with us Saturday and again Monday into Tuesday night. Obviously, temperatures are going to be key to precipitation type.
An overrunning precipitation event will be possible Monday into Tuesday night. That means all types of precipitation. Ranging from rain south of the front to freezing rain, sleet, and snow.
Models are still not in agreement as to how much precipitation falls, as well.
The bottom line is that everyone should monitor updated forecasts.
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Friday and Friday night
A fast moving weak system will bring a few snow showers tonight. I can’t rule out a dusting of snow. This would mainly be across southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
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Saturday and Saturday night
The arctic cold front will attempt to push into our region Saturday into Saturday night. A weak wave along the front will produce some rain showers that may end as snow showers.
A dusting to an inch of snow will be possible in the region.
Check out the temperature difference from north to south.
3 PM Saturday. Brrr up north!
You can click all the animations and images on my page to enlarge them.
Notice the sharp temperature gradient ahead and behind the cold front.
Then this next image is 6 AM Sunday.
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Sunday and Sunday night:
Most likely Sunday into Sunday night will be dry. Perhaps a flurry.
You can see the temperature animation for the short-range. That front is key to temperature forecasts verifying.
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Monday into Wednesday:
The tricky part of the forecast arrives Monday into Wednesday.
Again, the placement of the front will be key to our sensible weather.
If the front is further south then the cold air will sink further south.
Several disturbances will push across the region Monday into Wednesday. These disturbances will produce clouds and some precipitation.
For now, I have light precipitation totals. Rain totals less than 0.20″. Freezing rain, sleet, and snow totals should be light as well. It is too soon to give exact amounts. Again, for now, I have light totals.
Could that change? Yes, it could.
If the system comes in slightly stronger than there could be enough frozen precipitation to cause issues. Monitor updates moving forward.
You can see the precipitation in our future-cast radars below. Notice the differences in the models.
I am hoping we start to see some model agreement today and tomorrow. That will add confidence to my going forecast.
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Thursday through Saturday:
Some of the guidance is showing another chance of precipitation next Thursday into Friday night. For now, I have Thursday dry. I am closely monitoring this portion of the forecast, as well.
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Spring outlook:
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperatures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary March outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This one does not show the different precipitation types. It just shows precipitation.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
Blue is snow. Pink is ice. Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Red is heavy rain.
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This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Blue is snow. Pink is ice. Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Red is heavy rain.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Blue is snow. Pink is ice. Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Red is heavy rain.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Blue is snow. Pink is ice. Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Red is heavy rain.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Blue is snow. Pink is ice. Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Red is heavy rain.
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Canadian Model
Blue is snow. Green is rain.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers February 5th through February 11th
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers February 12th through February 18th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers February 19th through March 4th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
Winter Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperatures
Precipitation
.
And the preliminary March outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
.
And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
.
And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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Apple users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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