Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS/Videos/Graphics

February and March outlooks have been updated.

Bonus maps and videos have been updated.

Link to the long range outlooks (Scroll down to the 2nd post at this link for the latest long range outlook) and videos (for subscribers) – Click here

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February 5, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny morning.  Increasing clouds through the day.  A chance of rain or rain/snow showers from Perryville, Missouri to Owensboro, Kentucky.  Along and north of that line stands the best chance of precipitation.  South of that line the chances decrease.
Temperatures:  MO ~  34 to 40       IL ~  32  to 38        KY ~  35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered over our northern counties
Wind chill values: 25 to 35
Accumulating snow or ice:  Perhaps some accumulation over our northern counties.  Confidence on accumulation is low.
Winds:  Winds becoming east and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor snow chances over our northern counties.  Slick spots are possible if the snow does develop.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Evening snow showers possible over northern parts of southeast Missouri, northern portions of southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky.  Lesser chances elsewhere.
Temperatures:    MO ~  24 to 30     IL ~ 24 to 30        KY ~ 26 to 32
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly north)
Wind chill values: 18 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice: Monitor snow chances over our northern counties.  Perhaps light accumulation.  Confidence on accumulation is low.
Winds:  Winds south becoming southwest and perhaps west at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Icy patches possible over our northern counties.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No, but check radars

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February 6, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Becoming cloudy.  A chance of freezing rain, snow, and rain across southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee after 3 PM.  Chances will increase area-wide towards the evening hours.  Monitor updates.
Temperatures:  MO ~  32 to 44        IL ~  32 to 44         KY ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60% late     IL ~ 40%  late     KY ~ 40%  late      TN ~ 60% late
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage.  There are some questions above timing of precipitation.
Wind chill values: 24 to 32
Accumulating snow or ice:  Monitor updates.  Some accumulation of snow and ice is possible.
Winds:  Northeast and east winds at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps icy roads developing late in the day.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B during the afternoon and evening hours.  Monitor radars as precipitation develops towards late afternoon and evening.

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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain likely.  Monitor updates.  It appears that all types of precipitation will be possible in the region.
Temperatures:    MO ~  25 to 30      IL ~ 25 to 30        KY ~ 28 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 70%    TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous to widespread
Wind chill values: 20 to 30
Accumulating snow or ice: Yes.  Some accumulation of ice and snow possible.  Monitor updates.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Icy roads possible.  Monitor the ice potential for spotty power outages.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Have a plan B

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February 7, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Morning clouds.  Freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain possible before 10 AM.  Timing of the precipitation ending will need to be fine tuned.
Temperatures:  MO ~  30 to 35        IL ~  30 to 35         KY ~ 33 to 36
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 50%          TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
Wind chill values: 20 to 30
Accumulating snow or ice: Snow and ice accumulation possible
Winds:  North at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor for icy road conditions across portions of the region
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Chilly.
Temperatures:    MO ~  16 to 22      IL ~ 16 to 22        KY ~ 18 to 22
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 12 to 20
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Icy roads may remain in some areas
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No

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February 8, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.
Temperatures:  MO ~  36 to 42        IL ~  36 to 42        KY ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 30 to 40
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph.  Winds variable in direction.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Chilly.
Temperatures:    MO ~  25 to 30      IL ~ 25 to 30        KY ~ 25 to 30
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 18 to 24
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No

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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Now through next Friday  A few thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday/Tuesday night.  The best chance of lightning would be across the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.  This is highly dependent on the track of the area of low pressure and placement of the warm front.  Monitor updates.

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February 5, 2018

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link.

Click WINTERIZE on the local city view radars.

Example of the winterize button.  This will show you rain vs snow vs ice.  It is an algorithm, so it isn’t perfect.
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Join me on Facebook tonight to discuss the winter storm.  www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather

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Forecast:

Winter Weather Radar
Be sure and turn on the winterize button above the local city view radars
Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link.

Monday into Monday night:

HIGHLIGHTS 

1.  Chilly today with an increase in clouds
2.  Snow showers possible across our northern counties this afternoon into tonight.  Mainly along and north of a line from Perryville, Missouri to Owensboro, Kentucky.  I can’t rule out light accumulation, but questions remain on coverage and intensity.
3.  Not as cold tonight.

Medium to high confidence in the forecast through Monday night.

The only concern today will be an area of snow showers that will pass mainly to our north.  Winter weather advisories blanket portions of northeast Missouri into northern Illinois.

The bulk of this system will stay to our north.  The southern edge of the snow should clip our area.

The best chance of seeing snow would be from Perryville, Missouri towards Owensboro, Kentucky.  From there northward.  I have snow in the forecast, but confidence on accumulating snow is low.  I did make a graphic for this event.  See it below.

I think the main question is just how far south will the system spread precipitation.  A lot of guidance keeps it out of our local area.

I do believe our northern counties will see some light precipitation.

Here is the latest NAM model guidance future-cast radar.  Green and yellow represent rain.  Blue represents snow.  Other colors are a wintry mix.

Time stamp upper left.  Click image to enlarge.

This is for Monday afternoon into Monday night.  Fast moving system.
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Here is my latest snow probability forecast map for Monday afternoon and Monday night.  

This event may clip the northern half of our region.  From Perryville, Missouri towards Owensboro, Kentucky.  From there northward stands the best chance of seeing some snowflakes.  Lesser chances as you move south of that line.

Here is that line.  Along and north of this line stands the best chance of seeing a few snowflakes or rain/snow mix later today.
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Tuesday into Wednesday:

** Winter Storm Possible Tuesday Afternoon into early Wednesday morning **

HIGHLIGHTS

1.  Dry Tuesday morning.
2.  Freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain develop Tuesday afternoon and spread into our local area.  This may end up being an evening and overnight event.
3.  Icy roads possible (for portions of the region) Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.
4.  Some school closings possible Wednesday.

Medium confidence on the Tuesday through Wednesday forecast.

We have a complex weather forecast shaping up for Tuesday into Wednesday.  Seems like that is always the case.

A developing storm system to our southwest will spread moisture northward into the Missouri and Ohio/Tennessee Valley’s.  The bulk of the rain/snow/ice will hit our area during the late Tuesday afternoon hours into the wee hours of Wednesday morning.

As always, this is not a slam dunk forecast.  The forecast will likely evolve with time.

Model guidance is all over the place with precipitation totals and type.  That does not add to the forecast confidence levels.

Some models this morning are showing almost no precipitation at all.  Other models are juicy with quite a bit of freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain.

The best chance of frozen precipitation will extend along a line from Poplar Bluff, Missouri to Paducah, Kentucky, and then towards Owensboro, Kentucky.  Along and that line should be near or below freezing.  That is how it currently appears.  That is my current forecast.  This may change.  Monitor updates.

The margin of error in this forecast is likely one to two counties.  Not a lot, but enough to significantly change the forecast for your backyard.

What determines whether you end up with snow, sleet, freezing rain, or rain?  Temperatures aloft determine that.  If a wedge of warm air nudges into the upper atmosphere it causes your snowflakes to melt into liquid.
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What is freezing rain?  This is freezing rain.
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As always, I recommend everyone monitor updates.  Winter storm watches, ice storm warnings, or winter weather advisories are possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.  The Paducah, KY National Weather Service will issue those.

The main impact will be icy roads.  The amount of freezing rain might be enough to knock down a few tree limbs or power lines.  That is an unknown.  The current freezing rain outlook is for 0.05″ to 0.20″.

Let me show you some model guidance.

You can see the system on the NAM guidance.  Pink and red are freezing rain and sleet.  Blue would be snow.  Green/yellow would be rain. This runs from Tuesday 3 PM through Wednesday 9 AM.
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Here is my latest snow probability forecast map for Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning

Confidence in the forecast, over the past 24 hours, has not increased.  If anything, it has decreased a bit.

The main impact from this system could end up being ice.  I am just not sure, yet, on the snow potential.  Warm air aloft could melt snowflakes as they fall.  A shallow cold layer at the surface would then freeze that liquid into sleet and freezing rain.
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Click images to enlarge.

You can see where the freezing line is situated.  This is the NAM  model’s opinion.  It could shift one or two counties.  That could change the forecast for your backyard.  Keep this in mind.

Some models are slightly warmer and some slightly colder.  That leaves question on where to place the 32 degree line.

Time stamp upper left
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Here is the NAM model snow forecast for Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.  One models opinion.
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Here is the NAM models freezing rain forecast.  You can see it places the freezing rain right through the heart of our local area.
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Now, look at the high resolution 3K NAM model.  It shows very little in the way of freezing rain.  Trace amounts.

This is a short range model and is supposed to be more accurate.  I just don’t know what to think about the lack of moisture on the 3K NAM guidance.  Currently, it is the outlier.
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Here is the EC model ice forecast.  This is the freezing rain forecast.  You can see that the placement is similar to the NAM model guidance.
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Here is the GFS model.  This is the freezing rain forecast from that model.  Typically, we cut these numbers in half.  Accretion does not always keep up with accumulation.  In other words if 0.50″ of rain falls, then 0.25″ of ice may accumulate.  Dripping and other factors go into accretion.  Accretion means how much ice accumulates.

Notice it is producing higher totals vs the NAM guidance.  The NAM guidance is currently an outlier.
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Here is the GFS snow forecast.  Not much snow being produced by the models.  This is mainly an ice event.  According to the models, at least.  That does make sense based on the warm nudge of air aloft.
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Let me show you what the Paducah, Kentucky, National Weather Service is forecast.

This may need to be shifted south.  Some question on that.  I have the heavier totals a bit further south.   Either way, you get the general idea.
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Now let me show you what WPC is forecasting.  They are a branch of NOAA.

This first graphic is what is the percent chance of 1″ of snow from this system (Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning)

This is a static image.  The buttons won’t work for you.
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This next graphics is what is the % chance of at least 0.10″ of freezing rain accumulating.
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This next graphics is what is the % chance of 0.25″ of freezing rain accumulating.
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This next graphics is what is the % chance of 0.50″ of freezing rain accumulating.
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Here is the official WPC precipitation forecast map through Wednesday afternoon.  Check out the SHARP cut-off between lighter totals and heavier totals.

The heaviest precipitation is forecast to fall in the all rain zone.

Notice portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois are in the less than 0.05″ zone.  Keep in mind this is freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain.  It is the liquid amounts of precipitation forecasted.

Click image to enlarge.

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Here is the southeast view of that image.  Again, SHARP cut-off on totals.  Keep in mind this is freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain.  It is the liquid amounts of precipitation forecasted.
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Regional view of the same graphic.  Keep in mind this is freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain.  It is the liquid amounts of precipitation forecasted.
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Here is my rainfall totals forecast.

What is the % chance of X amount of rain Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning?

This graphic is JUST for the rain zone.  This is not for freezing rain, sleet, or snow.

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Monitor updates.

Friday night into Sunday (February 9th through the 11th)

HIGHLIGHTS

1.  Another in a series of storm systems may spread precipitation back into our region late next week. Low confidence.
2.  It is too early to know what type of precipitation.  Monitor updates

I will initiate a graphic on next weekends system.  Still early to know the details on this one.
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We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.