Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  Calm weather for the next few days.
2.  Small warming trend over the weekend
3.  Cold blast early next week
4.  But, what about snow with the cold air?

Well, we had some active weather for a bit.  Now we are back to calm weather.  Seems our repeating cycle is errr repeating!

Calm weather will continue into the weekend.  We will have some clouds from time to time.  But, overall it won’t be too bad.  A slow warming trend, as well.

Highs on Friday may reach 50 degrees for some of our counties.  And, if we can manage to get the sun to shine, those temperatures won’t feel too bad.  We are in the heart of winter, after all.  When temperatures reach the 50 degree mark in February one shouldn’t complain.

Colder air is showing up in the charts for early next week.  A blast of bitterly cold air is poised to move into the northern United States on Sunday into Monday.  This cold air will nip our region, as well.

A large area of low pressure will push southward from Canada into the Great Lakes on Sunday into Tuesday.  This will help push clouds into our region, and even some light snow or snow showers.

Occasionally these systems can produce a dusting to even an inch or two of snow.  If it is cold then snow ratios would be high, as well.  Normally snow ratios are in the 10:1 category.  That means for every 1″ of liquid there is 10″ of snow.  But, when temperatures are colder you can pick up 20:1 ratios or high.  Not saying that is what will happen, but I will be monitoring.

We will have on and off clouds into Sunday.  By Sunday evening clouds should solidly be on the increase.  Clouds overspread the region on Sunday night into Monday.  Light precipitation may break out as early as late Sunday night.  But, more likely on Monday and Monday night.  Temperatures should be cold enough for mostly light snow.

The best chances for any accumulating snow might end up over our northeast counties.  Perhaps from Mt Vernon, Illinois towards Madisonville, Kentucky  Not saying that areas south and west of there might not have some light snow, but rather the higher probabilities will be over our northeast counties.

This is still days away.  Confidence on any accumulating snow is fairly low, at this point.  But, for you snow fans, this is something we can monitor together.  I will be updating through the weekend!  As always 🙂

Otherwise, the cold air filters in on Monday and Tuesday.  Data is mixed on just how cold it will be.  With clouds on Monday/Monday night temperatures might not drop as much as they could have with clear sky conditions.  I would not be surprised if we dip into the teens next week.  And, if we do have a little bit of snow then perhaps colder.

Gusty winds will be an issue on Monday into Wednesday.  And, if we have a little snow, that could make things interesting.  It does not take much snow combined with winds to cause drifting snow.  Even a couple of inches can be a problem.  Something to consider and monitor as we move forward.

Here are the wind gust maps for Monday into Tuesday evening.

This is in knots and the maps are from weatherbell.com

This first map is for Monday morning at 6 am.

Scale is on the right hand side.

This next map is for 11 am on Monday morning.

Here is the GFS showing that big spiraling low over the Great Lakes on Monday evening.  You can see some light blue in our region.  Maybe some snow showers or light snow.  We shall see.

Gusty winds will also be the general rule on Monday and Tuesday.  Thus, wind chills will feel even colder.  Expect some gusts above 30 mph.

A bit of a roller-coaster ride of temperatures is showing up in the charts over the next couple of weeks.  Some guidance indicates a few chances for precipitation.  Depending on how the guidance verifies it does appear there are several substantial cold snaps in the charts.

I was thinking February and March would deliver some winter weather.  January, in actuality, didn’t do all that bad.  We had two snow events (well, some of us had two snow events) and quite a bit of cold air.  But, on the other hand, we also had some warm spells.

December, of course, was extremely warm.  One of the warmest on record for many locations.

It has been an interesting winter.  Between the tornadoes, the record flooding, the cold snaps, the occasional snow event, and numerous days with record high temperatures it has been busy.  At least for the weatherman.

No winter weather anticipated.

Friday – No snow or ice anticipated
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Monday – Monitoring for some light precipitation
Tuesday – Monitoring for some light precipitation

No major changes.

No major concerns.  Quiet weather for a few days.

No wild card in this update.

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

Dry through Friday.  Likely dry through the weekend, as well.

Perhaps some light precipitation on Monday and Tuesday.  Less than 0.20″ melted.

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. 

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.