February 4, 2026. A warming trend next week. Some good news.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

February 4th through February 10th

Current risk: No concerns.

Current confidence level: High confidence.

Comments: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? NO.

2. Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.

..3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees? POSSIBLE. Tonight

6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees? POSSIBLE. Tonight

7. Is accumulating snow (one inch or more of snow) or ice in the forecast? NO.

Watch out for black ice each night and morning.

Keep the kids off the ice-covered lakes and ponds. The ice may not be thick enough to support their weight.

⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.

⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.

We will remain in the green. No thunderstorm threats.

A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

Here is your bus stop forecast

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This afternoon

My daily video

Forecast discussion

Fairly quiet weather through Monday.
It will be cold today and tomorrow. Some flurries are possible.
The big story will be next week’s warmer temperatures.
A small chance of rain by Tuesday.
I am watching some bigger systems in the long range. But tracking and intensity remain open questions.

What is the primary weather concern?

Watch for black ice.

Here are this morning’s temperatures as of 5 AM.

Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video or graphics below for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

Watch out for black ice each night and morning.

Today through Sunday

A quiet weather pattern is expected over the coming days.

It is hard to believe that some schools remain closed due to the winter storm, but sleet is difficult to melt and remove. Areas with all-snow conditions have returned to classes.

It will be mostly dry through next Monday.

There will be a couple of fast-moving systems brushing the region tomorrow and Friday. These will bring some snow flurries and perhaps a sprinkle of rain on Thursday and Friday.

Nothing significant. Precipitation amounts would be trace, if any.

Dry on Saturday and Sunday.

Let’s look at high temperatures for the upcoming week. Overnight lows will be colder, but not as extreme as recent days.

Today’s high temperatures

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Thursday morning’s low temperatures

Thursday’s high temperatures

Friday’s high temperatures

Saturday’s high temperatures

Notice the warmer temperatures in the Bootheel and Tennessee. That is a different NWS Office, and there is disagreement on temperatures.

Sunday’s high temperatures

Monday’s high temperatures

Tuesday’s high temperatures

No major systems today through next Monday.

Next week looks a bit warmer. Let’s hope! Some data even shows the potential for 55 to 60+ degrees!

We need rain. Drought continues to worsen.

The recent snow and ice did little to help.

Double-click on the image to enlarge it.

The EC model hints at rain next week and the week after.

The EC hasn’t performed well this year, but I will monitor it.

February 10th and 11th. It shows light rain. The GFS model shows this around the 13th or so.

February 13th, the EC model shows some rain

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.

Blue is snow.

EC model

This is the quick hitting Thursday flurries.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Red is locally heavy rain. Blue is snow.

NAM model

You can see the flurries on Thursday.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

** NEW SERVICE ** I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning. It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.