.
Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
.
7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
Very low confidence in the Monday and Tuesday forecast.
.
.
.
.
Thursday to Thursday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. Flurries possible Friday night. Some snow showers are possible Saturday evening and night. Any accumulation would be light. I continue to monitor Monday night into Tuesday night for some wintry mix. Too soon to know about accumulation.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? N0.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? Yes. Intervals of cold this weekend into next week. Monitor the wind chill value forecast.
..
.
February 5, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Cloudy. Windy. Increasing rain chances from west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 90% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 45° to 50° South IL 44° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 5:24 PM
.
Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of rain showers. Rain may taper off as snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 25° to 28° SE MO 22° to 25° South IL 22° to 26° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 30° West KY 28° to 32° NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest becoming west 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 24°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Becoming scattered as the night wears on.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Icy patches possible if precipitation lingers.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.
Moonrise: 12:00 AM
Moonset: 11:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Last quarter
.
February 6, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Becoming sunny as clouds depart.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 42° West KY 42° to 45° NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 5:25 PM
.
Friday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. Chilly. a flurry possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 25° SE MO 18° to 24° South IL 18° to 24° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 24° West KY 22° to 24° NW TN 22° to 25°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None for most
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:15 AM
Moonset: 11:44 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
.
February 7, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Increasing clouds from the west. A chance of rain showers. Turning colder during the PM hours. Rain may be mixed with snow.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 35° to 38° South IL 38° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest 6 to 12 mph gusty at times during the PM
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 5:26 PM
.
Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a snow shower. Bitterly cold. Light snow accumulation possible. Mostly our far northern counties. Most of the region will not receive accumulation. That is the latest.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 32° SE MO 20° to 24° South IL 16° to 22° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° West KY 24° to 28° NW TN 16° to 20°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph with gusts above 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor road conditions.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:26 AM
Moonset: 12:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
.
February 8, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° SE MO 32° to 35° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 5:27 PM
.
Sunday night Forecast: Becoming cloudy from west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 25° to 30° SE MO 20° to 24° South IL 20° to 24° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 24° West KY 25° to 30° NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: East 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:35 AM
Moonset: 1:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
.
Very low confidence in the Monday and Tuesday forecast.
February 9, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers. Temperatures will vary and may fall during the PM hours (esp northern counties).
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 38° to 45° South IL 38° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° West KY 45° to 50° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 5:28 PM
.
Monday night Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of snow showers or a wintry mix. Turning colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 22° SE MO 16° to 22° South IL 16° to 22° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 22° West KY 18° to 24° NW TN 20° to 24°
Wind direction and speed: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold air. Monitor snow chances.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 4:39 AM
Moonset: 2:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
.
February 10, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36° SE MO 25° to 30° South IL 26° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° West KY 30° to 35° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: North 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Snow and ice could cause slick spots. Monitor.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 5:29 PM
.
Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 15° to 20° SE MO 12° to 16° South IL 12° to 16° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 15° to 20° West KY 20° to 24° NW TN 22° to 25°
Wind direction and speed: North 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 8° to 18°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy patches on roadways if we have snow. Bitterly cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 5:36 AM
Moonset: 3:16 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
.
.
The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
.
Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
.
.
.
Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
.
.
Today through February 12th. Severe weather is not anticipated.
.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
.
Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
.
.
The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
72-hour precipitation outlook.
.
..
Weather advice:
Intervals of cold air shots Saturday into much of next week. Some periods may have bitterly cold wind chill values. Monitor the daily numbers.
Light snow possible Saturday and Saturday night. Any accumulation will be light.
I am monitoring precipitation chances Monday through Tuesday night. I can’t rule out some snow or a mix, at times. Low confidence.
Beau’s Weather Talk App by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
.
Weather Discussion
-
- Rain arrives today. Ending tonight.
- Colder as we move into the weekend.
- I continue to monitor snow chances Saturday and Saturday night (rain and snow).
- I continue to adjust temperatures and precipitation chances next week. Very low confidence in the daily details Monday and Tuesday.
First, the easy part of the forecast.
Widespread rain arrives today and this evening. It will push into the region from the west. Rain totals of 0.25″ to 0.50″. Locally higher totals are possible. Nothing extreme. No severe weather or flooding.
The rain ends tonight. Perhaps as a flurry. No accumulation. It will be turning colder tonight.
Friday and Friday night will have a few clouds. Maybe a flurry Friday evening/night. No impacts.
Our next front arrives Saturday and Saturday night. This is an arctic front. It will attempt to push through the region.
The full front of the cold air has shifted northward. I adjusted overnight lows and daily highs Saturday and Sunday. You will note the adjustment was higher. So, that is good news.
The rain may mix with snow Saturday afternoon as temperatures fall. Perhaps snow showers Saturday night, as well. Any accumulation would be light. Zero to one inch.
Over the last 24 hours the models have trended further north with the accumulating snow. Thus, most of our region will likely not experience accumulating snow Saturday/Saturday night. I will monitor the northern counties in my forecast area.
Sunday will be chilly. Some clouds.
Uncertainties remain about the Monday through Wednesday forecast.
I have been telling you that there was little or no confidence in the long range forecast. That remains the same.
Models have been insanely inaccurate in this time period. Showing everything from a foot or more of snow to thunderstorms. It is quite amazing to watch them battle it out.
The main reason for this is cold air to our north and the strength of an area of low pressure that develops Monday and Tuesday.
Cold air can be fickle. It is typically shallow and moves around like molasses. It can be tricky to forecast the southern edge of that cold air.
For example, look at this map.
Monday afternoon temperatures. Look at that gradient! Impressive changes within a few short miles.
Then, look at Tuesday morning. The cold air slowly oozes southward.
That sharp gradient remains.
Models over the past few days have not been able to determine the southern extent of the cold air.
That remains true today. They continue to show wild swings.
Overall, the trend has been warmer Sunday night into Monday night. At least across the southern half of the region. Then, the colder air sinks into our northern counties.
The gradient is important because that is normally where you will find precipitation.
What type of precipitation will be determined by temperatures, of course.
I have a rain and rain/snow wintry mix Monday into Tuesday across the region.
The next question is when will the precipitation occur? That is also in play. It appears there won’t be large amounts of precipitation and it may not last more than twelve hours.
So, I will continue to adjust the forecast moving forward. I suspect adjustments are not finished. Patience will be necessary in the long-range.
Cold air will likely stick around through much of next week.
Some models are colder than others. Monitor updates. A prolonged period of cold weather could cause issues with pipes and so on. Normal for our region during cold spells.
.
Spring outlook:
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperatures
Precipitation
.
And the preliminary March outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
.
.
And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
.
.
And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
.
What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
.
This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
.
This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
.
This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
.
This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
.
.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.
Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers February 4th through February 10th
Click on the image to expand it.
.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
.
This outlook covers February 11th through February 17th
Click on the image to expand it.
.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average
.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers February 16th through March 1st
.
Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
Winter Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
..
E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
..
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperatures
Precipitation
.
And the preliminary March outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
.
.
And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
.
.
And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.|
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
.
Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
.
Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
.
Live lightning data: Click here.
.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
.
.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.
.
