We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
.
Duck/goose decoys? Game calls? Optics? We have you covered! Click the logo above or visit Final Flight on Facebook, as well.
.
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Tuesday night – Showers and thunderstorms ending. Turning colder. Breezy.
Temperatures: Lows from 38 to 42 degrees
Winds: West/southwest winds at 8-16 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% early and then 10% after midnight.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered early. Ending from west to east.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some evening showers/storms still possible as the system exits our region.
Is severe weather expected? Believe the severe weather risk will come to an end on Tuesday evening. Eastern counties will need to see how quick this system exits. That would include the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways, gusty winds, severe weather threat ending from west to east.
Wednesday – Partly cloudy and colder.
Temperatures: Highs will range 36 to 42 degrees.
Winds: West winds at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 18 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Clearing and colder.
Temperatures: Lows from 25-30 degrees
Winds: West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Mostly sunny and cool.
Temperatures: Highs will range 40-45 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph becoming southwest winds during the afternoon at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Mostly clear and cold.
Temperatures: Lows from 22 to 28 degrees
Winds: Light and variable winds.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Mostly sunny and cool.
Temperatures: Highs will range 44-48 degrees.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Calmer weather will be the rule for Wednesday into the weekend.
2. Colder weather for the rest of the week.
Once our blustery thunderstorms come to an end on Tuesday evening you can expect cooler weather for the rest of the week. And, dry weather will be the rule.
Expect daily high temperatures in the upper 30s to middle 40s. Close to normal temperatures for early February. Overnight lows will be in the 20s. Surely you didn’t think the 60s would last forever! It is still winter. And, the charts show quite a bit of cold weather over the coming weeks.
Right now I am not tracking any additional precipitation makers. There is a weak system showing up in the charts over the weekend. But, I believe moisture is limited. That means we may not have to worry about precipitation. Perhaps some increase in clouds.
One thing of interest is a southern storm that is showing up in the charts for Sunday night into Tuesday. This system, if it were to trend further northwest, would need to be monitored for the possibility of some clouds and precipitation into parts of our region. I will keep an eye on it. I know some of you want more snow. Trust me, I am looking.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a Three on Tuesday evening. The storms will be over our eastern counties during the evening hours. Coming to an end elsewhere.
No winter weather anticipated.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated
Friday – No snow or ice anticipated
Saturday – No significant snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – No significant snow or ice anticipated.
No major adjustments in this forecast package update.
Gusty winds on Tuesday night.
No concerns once we get past the Tuesday evening thunderstorms.
No wild card in this update.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Dry weather Wednesday into the weekend. Small chance for precipitation over the weekend. For now I will leave it alone. Believe dry will be the rule.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
