Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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We are waking up to cool temperatures.
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Good morning, everyone.

A nice day ahead of us.  Yes, it will be windy at times.  It will also be quite warm.  So, that is the good news!

Temperatures today will rise into the sixties.  Some locations will hit the seventy-degree mark.  We can’t complain about that in February!

We should see plenty of sun today, as well.

A dry cold front will make its way across our region tonight.  This will bring cooler temperatures just in time for the weekend.  It would have been nice to have the warm air on Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures tomorrow and Sunday will rise into the forties.  It will feel chilly.

The weather takes a turn on Monday and Tuesday of next week.

This system will have quite a bit of moisture to work with.

PWAT values will be well above normal ahead of the cold front.

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PWAT values.

PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere.  These are some big numbers for early March.  What does that mean?

This means there could be heavy rain on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

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Rainfall totals.  Most of this will fall on Tuesday afternoon and night.  The numbers have gone up a bit.  This raises questions about flooding.

I will keep a close eye on that subject, especially over western Kentucky and Tennessee.  That is where the heaviest rain fell a week or two ago.  The red zone is two or more inches of rain.

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A few showers will be possible as early as Monday and Monday night.  The main push of showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Ending on Wednesday.

The next concern will be severe thunderstorms.

The Storm Prediction Center/NOAA  has shifted the risk zone northward.  There remain questions, however, about our region.  Thus, monitor updates.

The yellow is a level two severe risk.  The orange is a level three risk.

The concern will be damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes.  It is a bit early to know the extent of the local risk.  I will be monitoring it and updating the forecast as we draw closer to the event.

It is possible that the higher risk ends up south of my local area.

Here is the current severe weather outlook for next Tuesday.  A level two and three risk zone.

Notice that the SPC/NOAA did move the enhanced risk into our region.  They also shifted the slight risk farther north.

This event is still five days out, so there will still be shifts in their outlook.

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The Memphis, Tennessee, NWS/NOAA posted this update on their page.

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There are questions about the dew points/moisture.

For severe weather, I usually watch for 58 or above in the dew point department.

There is a sliver of higher dew points that make their way into our region, but it eventually is clipped.

For a more significant severe weather outbreak, I usually look for a wider warm sector.  This does raise some questions about the extent of the risk in our local area.  I will be monitoring trends.

GFS model.  Dew point forecast for Tuesday afternoon.

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The EC model.

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You can see that system on the GFS and EC models.

GFS model.

This is the Tuesday evening weather map.  The area of low pressure is centered in Kansas, moving northeast.

The NAM model shows the mid-week system.

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The EC model.

A similar look.

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Here are the EC and GEFS ensembles.  This is where the low-pressure center should track.

A track into northeast Missouri would place our region in the warm sector.  That is where thunderstorms occur.

EC model.

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GEFS 

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The GFS model shows a strong level-level jetstream.  This is a signal for severe weather.

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EC 850 MB winds.  Low level jetstream.

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Looking higher up in the atmosphere.  This is the 500 MB level jetstream.  This is another signal for severe weather.

You can see the yellow streak of higher wind speeds moving into our region.  Strong jetstream wind fields are a signal for severe weather.

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I will know more about the severe weather threat as we move through the weekend.  I will be sending out Beau Dodson App alerts.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.