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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible today.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Monitor. Wind chill temperatures may approach 10 degrees Thursday night into Friday morning.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? Likely. A wintry mix is likely this morning. This afternoon the threat shifts more to Missouri and Illinois as temperatures warm above freezing across portions of the region.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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February 24, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Cloudy. Rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. A thunderstorm is possible. Slowly rising temperatures over southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. Temperatures may struggle to get above freezing over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% / the rest of SE MO ~ 100% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 100% / the rest of South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Redeveloping from the southwest.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 35° to 40° / SE MO 30° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 34° / South IL 32° to 35° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 35° to 40°
Winds will be from the: North northeast 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:33 AM
Sunset: 5:45 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Precipitation tapering west to east as the night wears on.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / the rest of SE MO ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / the rest of South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread early. Ending west to east.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 30° / SE MO 24° to 26° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 24° to 26° / South IL 24° to 28° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° / West KY 30° to 34° / NW TN 30° to 34°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 1:31 AM
Moonset: 11:15 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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February 25, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° / SE MO 33° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 33° to 36° / South IL 34° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 35° to 40°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B during the morning hours. Monitor road conditions.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset: 5:46 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 25° / SE MO 18° to 22° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 18° to 22° / South IL 18° to 22° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 24° / West KY 23° to 26° / NW TN 23° to 26°
Winds will be from the: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 18°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:41 AM
Moonset: 12:08 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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February 26, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° / SE MO 38° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° / South IL 38° to 42° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° / West KY 38° to 44° / NW TN 40° to 44°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 5:47 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 30° / SE MO 23° to 26° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 23° to 26° / South IL 24° to 26° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° / West KY 23° to 26° / NW TN 28° to 30°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:47 AM
Moonset: 1:11 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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February 27, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Some morning clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° / SE MO 44° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 46° / South IL 44° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° / West KY 43° to 46° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: West 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset: 5:48 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° / SE MO 22° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 22° to 25° / South IL 23° to 26° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° / West KY 23° to 26° / NW TN 23° to 26°
Winds will be from the: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:44 AM
Moonset: 2:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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February 28, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° / SE MO 44° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 46° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 46° to 50°
Winds will be from the: Northeast and east 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 5:49 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 30° / SE MO 26° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 26° to 30° / South IL 26° to 30° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 30° / West KY 28° to 30° / NW TN 28° to 30°
Winds will be from the: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:32 AM
Moonset: 3:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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March 1, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° / SE MO 52° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° / West KY 52° to 55° / NW TN 52° to 55°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 5:50 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° / SE MO 33° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 33° to 36° / South IL 33° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° / West KY 34° to 36° / NW TN 34° to 38°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:12 AM
Moonset: 4:46 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through February 27th: No
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Winter storm.
- Warmer next week.
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Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Forecast Discussion
Our winter weather event continues this morning across portions of the area.
Temperatures were a bit colder yesterday than expected. By a few degrees. That helped the frozen precipitation spread a few counties further east.
Precipitation amounts have been mostly light. Sleet accumulations of less than an inch and freezing rain accumulations of less than 0.10″. This has caused slick roadways.
Numerous schools and businesses are closed today. It does not take much ice to cause headaches.
Temperatures will slowly rise today over about half the region.
Temperatures will struggle to rise above freezing over most of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
You can see that temperature rise on these animations.
Double click the animations to enlarge them.
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Southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee will see slowly rising temperatures. Temperatures are forecast to go above freezing in these areas.
Additional precipitation will develop across the region this morning and afternoon.
It may begin as freezing rain and sleet and then change to plain rain in areas that go above freezing. A thunderstorm can’t be ruled out.
Areas that remain below freezing will experience freezing rain and sleet. Perhaps ending as light snow.
Some additional freezing rain accumulation is likely. This will most likely occur over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Any frozen precipitation accumulation over southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee will be light.
As always, use caution on icy surfaces.
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The entire system will pull away from the region tonight. That will bring an end to the precipitation.
It appears Friday through Monday will be dry. A slow warming trend with each passing day.
At one point, it appeared a southern system might bring some light snow to the area Saturday night. This has been trending further south.
Spring outlook.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
These maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Green is rain. Blue/purple is snow. Red is a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers February 24th through March 2nd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers March 3rd through March 9th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″
This outlook covers March 8th to March 21st
The next update for these two graphics will be Tuesday after 9 AM.
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
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February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
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April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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