Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

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48-hour forecast

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February 23, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Wednesday Forecast:  Thickening clouds.  Precipitation will spread into southeast Missouri by late morning and afternoon.  It will then spread northeast into the rest of the area.  Temperatures will vary across the region.  Rain, freezing rain, and sleet will be the concern.  Light accumulation.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 80%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% /  the rest of South IL ~ 50%  /  West KY ~ 60%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~  40%  /  NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. Higher chances PM hours vs AM.
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 35° to 40°  /  SE MO 32° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 35° /  South IL 34° to 38°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38°  /  West KY 35° to 40° /  NW TN 35° to 40°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Monitor the chance of icy roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset:  5:44 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow likely.  A chance of thunderstorms. The placement of the freezing line will need to be monitored.  It will likely drape itself across portions of our local area.  Frozen precipitation to its north.  All rain to its south.  Light accumulation.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 100%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 100% /  the rest of South IL ~ 100%  /  West KY ~ 100%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 100%  /  NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° /  SE MO 28° to 32° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° /  South IL 28° to 32° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° /  West KY 30° to 34° /  NW TN 30° to 34°
Winds will be from the:  North northeast 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 12:19 AM
Moonset: 10:30 AM
The phase of the moon:  Last Quarter

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February 24, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Thursday Forecast:  Cloudy.  Rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow.  A thunderstorm is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 100% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 100%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 100% /  the rest of South IL ~ 90%  /  West KY ~ 90%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~  90%  /  NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 35° to 40°  /  SE MO 30° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 34° /  South IL 32° to 35°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36°  /  West KY 34° to 38° /  NW TN 35° to 40°
Winds will be from the: North northeast 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2.  Low.
Sunrise: 6:33 AM
Sunset:  5:45 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy.  A chance of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow.  A chance of thunderstorms early.  Precipitation tapering west to east as the night wears on.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 90%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% /  the rest of South IL ~ 90%  /  West KY ~ 90%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90%  /  NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 30° /  SE MO 24° to 26° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 24° to 26° /  South IL 24° to 28° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° /  West KY 30° to 34° /  NW TN 30° to 34°
Winds will be from the:  North northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 1:31 AM
Moonset: 11:15 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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February 25, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Friday  Forecast:   Morning clouds.  A chance of an early morning snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Before 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38°  /  SE MO 33° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 33° to 36° /  South IL 34° to 36°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38°  /  West KY 34° to 38° /  NW TN 35° to 40°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B during the morning hours.  Monitor road conditions.
UV Index:  3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset:  5:46 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 25° /  SE MO 18° to 22° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 18° to 22° /  South IL 18° to 22° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 24° /  West KY 23° to 26° /  NW TN 23° to 26°
Winds will be from the:  North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 18°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:41 AM
Moonset: 12:08 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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February 26, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Saturday  Forecast:   Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44°  /  SE MO 38° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° /  South IL 38° to 42°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42°  /  West KY 38° to 44° /  NW TN 40° to 44°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4.  Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset:  5:47 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.  A slight chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 10%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 10%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After 8 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 30° /  SE MO 23° to 26° / I-64 Corridor of South IL  23° to 26° /  South IL 24° to 26° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° /  West KY 23° to 26° /  NW TN 28° to 30°
Winds will be from the:  Southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:47 AM
Moonset: 1:11 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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February 27, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast:   Some morning clouds.  A slight chance of AM snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 10%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% /  the rest of South IL ~ 10%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Before 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48°  /  SE MO 44° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 46° /  South IL 44° to 46°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46°  /  West KY 43° to 46° /  NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: West 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4.  Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset:  5:48 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° /  SE MO 22° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL  22° to 25° /  South IL 23° to 26° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26° /  West KY 23° to 26° /  NW TN 23° to 26°
Winds will be from the:  North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:44 AM
Moonset: 2:20 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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February 28, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Monday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50°  /  SE MO 44° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 46° /  South IL 44° to 48°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48°  /  West KY 44° to 48° /  NW TN 46° to 50°
Winds will be from the: Northeast and east 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5.  Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset:  5:49 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 30° /  SE MO 26° to 30° / I-64 Corridor of South IL  26° to 30° /  South IL 26° to 30° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 30° /  West KY 28° to 30° /  NW TN 28° to 30°
Winds will be from the:  South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:32 AM
Moonset: 3:34 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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March 1, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Tuesday Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55°  /  SE MO 52° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° /  South IL 52° to 55°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55°  /  West KY 52° to 55° /  NW TN 52° to 55°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5.  Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset:  5:50 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° /  SE MO 33° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL  33° to 36° /  South IL 33° to 36° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° /  West KY 34° to 36° /  NW TN 34° to 38°
Winds will be from the:  South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:12 AM
Moonset: 4:46 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down.  Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook.  You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Today through February 27th:  No

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Forecast Discussion

A complicated weather forecast from county to county.

Some areas will experience little or no winter weather impacts from this event.  Those will be areas that remain near or above freezing.  That is most likely from near Murray, Kentucky northeast into the LBL area and then east/northeast from there.  Temperatures should remain a bit warmer in those areas.

Any issues will be brief.

A winter storm will impact the region beginning today and continuing into Thursday night.  Two distinct waves of precipitation.  One this afternoon into tonight and then one late Thursday morning into Thursday night.

There may be some lulls between the two systems.  I suspect, however, precipitation will at least remain scattered even in the lulls.

This is mostly a freezing rain and sleet event.  Perhaps a little bit of snow.

Some areas will remain mostly rain.  Lightning is possible area-wide from this event.  That includes areas with frozen precipitation.

The highest chance of frozen precipitation will be in the winter storm warning.  That warning begins this afternoon and continues into Thursday evening.

It is important to note that temperatures Thursday may rise above freezing in many areas.  That would change the frozen precipitation to plain rain.

This is why the forecast is so complicated.

Let me show you the area of concern.

The pink zone is the winter storm warning.  Purple is a winter weather advisory.

Rain and a wintry mix will arrive as early as this afternoon from southwest to northeast.  The bulk of the travel issues may hold off until tonight and tomorrow morning.

We will need to monitor temperatures today.  Some areas will go above freezing.  Obviously, those areas that are above freezing won’t have issues until temperatures fall.

It will take roads a bit of time to become icy  Obviously, areas that remain below freezing will have issues first.

Bridges and overpasses freeze before other surfaces.  Always remember that.

The winter storm warning runs from this afternoon into Thursday evening.  Keep in mind, a good chunk of the region may see temperatures rise above freezing Thursday.  That would change the frozen precipitation to plain old rain.

There may still need to be adjustments to the warnings and advisories.  Monitor updates if you have travel concerns/plans.

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Travel impacts will peak tonight into tomorrow morning.

Temperatures Thursday will rise above freezing in some areas.  That will bring an end to the wintry precipitation.  That would change the freezing rain and sleet over to plain old rain.

Temperatures will then fall again Thursday night.  Whatever rain is left may end as a light wintry mix or snow with little or no accumulation.  Black ice will be possible.

Here are the WPC ice probabilities.

What is the probability of 0.10″ of freezing rain.

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What is the chance of 0.25″ or greater of freezing rain accumulation?

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What is the chance of 0.50″ or greater of freezing rain.

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Winter storm impact graphic.

Highest impacts in the orange and red zone.  Lower impacts in the yellow and grey zones.  Keep in mind, ice is ice.  Even a little bit of ice can cause extremely dangerous driving conditions.

Snow totals with this event will be light.  This is mostly an ice event.

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Let’s take a look at the temperature animation.  This is the Hrrr model.  Models do vary by a couple of degrees.

Those on the edge of the freezing line will simply need to monitor updates and temperatures.

This gives you a general idea.  The 32 degree line will be the deciding factor in this event.  Those at or below freezing will have a wintry mix.  Those above freezing won’t have issues.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Time is in Zulu.  12z=6 AM.  18z=12 PM.  00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers February 17tth through February 24th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers March 5th through March 8th

Click on the image to expand it.

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around  56 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.40″ to 2.80″

This outlook covers March 8th to March 21st

The next update for these two graphics will be Tuesday after 9 AM.

Precipitation outlook

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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