Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

February 21, 2023: Mild weather conditions. Rain chances.

 

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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Video update

Neau’s Two Minute Weather Forecast

Beau’s Longer AM Weather Video Update

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrow’s.

This shows you the forecast high.  The records.  The average and then the departure (how many degrees above or below average will temperatures be).

The graphic shows you what our average daily rainfall is for the day.  That is not what is expected (that is the average from past year).

Decreasing cloud cover today.  Clouds this morning will give way to sunshine.

Today’s feels like temperature.  Nice!

 

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48-hour forecast



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Tuesday to Tuesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  Lightning is possible tonight, Wednesday, Sunday night, and Monday.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  Low risk.  I will monitor Wednesday.  For now, the risk appears near zero.  I will monitor next Monday and Monday night.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low risk.   For now, the risk is low through Sunday.   Monitor updates.  Another rain event is likely next Monday and Monday night.  Locally heavy rain is possible.

4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees?  No.

5.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?   No.

6.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast?  No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines

6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  No.

 

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Tuesday, February 21, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Tuesday Forecast:  Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~  62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°

Winds will be from this direction:   Variable wind direction 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
Sunset:  5:41 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:   Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Rising temperatures late at night.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%

Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 55°

Winds will be from this direction:   South southwest 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise:  7:44 AM
Moonset:  7:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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Wednesday, February 22, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Wednesday Forecast:  Cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°

Winds will be from this direction:   South southwest 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:36 AM
Sunset:  5:42 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:   Cloudy with a chance of mainly evening showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°

Winds will be from this direction:   South southwest 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B during the evening and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise:  8:11 AM
Moonset:  8:44 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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Thursday, February 23, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Thursday Forecast:  Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 72°

Winds will be from this direction:   South southwest becoming west southwest 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset:  5:43 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:   Mostly clear. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°

Winds will be from this direction:   West northwest 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:  8:38 AM
Moonset:  9:53 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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Friday, February 24, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  Medium Confidence  
Friday Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A slight chance of rain showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%

Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°

Winds will be from this direction:   North northeast 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:33 AM
Sunset:  5:44 PM
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Friday  night Forecast:   Rain likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 40°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 44°

Winds will be from this direction:   South southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise:  9:06 8 AM
Moonset:  11:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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Saturday, February 25, 2023
Confidence in the forecast?  Medium Confidence  
Saturday Forecast:  Rain likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Before 4 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°

Winds will be from this direction:   South 15 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Sunset:  5:45 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:   Mostly cloudy. A chance of an evening shower.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 45°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~40° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 45°

Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Moonrise:  9:36 8 AM
Moonset:  –:– —
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down.  Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook.  You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Click the tab below.


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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today through February 27th:  Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday.  I will keep an eye on next Monday.

 

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

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Tornado Probability Outlook

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Damaging Wind Probability Outlook

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Large Hail Probability Outlook

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

 

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

    1.  Mild today with some sunshine.
    2.  Unsettled weather over the next seven days with on and off rain chances.

 

Weather advice:

Monitor updates concerning several rain events.  Perhaps thunderstorms, as well.

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Forecast Discussion

Another nice day on tap for the region.  It will be mild again today with temperatures well above seasonal averages.  A few clouds. Par for the course!

Flowers are blooming and some trees are starting to bud.  If this keeps up then there will be fruit crop concerns.

You can’t have this much mild weather without problems.

No significant weather concerns today.

A warm front will lift northward tonight.  This front will then become the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms.  This will primarily occur late tonight and mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

It is possible that the southern half of the region remains dry tonight or mostly dry.

The Hrrr future-cast radar shows just a few showers in the region tonight.  You can see them dotted there on this graphic.  Mainly after midnight.

Rain totals tonight will range from 0″ to 0.25″.  Lightning will be the only weather concern.

A cold front will approach the region tomorrow.

A deep area of low pressure will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to our region tomorrow.  Especially during the late morning and afternoon/evening hours.

You can see that line of showers and thunderstorms on the Hrrr model.

2 PM Wednesday

3 PM Wednesday

Rain totals of 0.05″ to 0.40″ are anticipated.  It is possible that some locations receive little in the way of rainfall.  We will have to see if a solid line of showers and thunderstorms forms.

If a broken line forms, then some areas will miss out on the precipitation.

It will be windy Wednesday, especially if the sun comes out.  Wind gusts above 30 mph are likely.  A wind advisory may need to be issued.

Winds will be from the south.  Southerly winds ahead of the deep area of low pressure.

That low will bring blizzard conditions to portions of the northern and central United States.

You can see the massive area of winter storm watches, warnings, blizzard warnings, and more on this map.

Double click images to enlarge them.

We will be in the warm sector.  The non-snow zone!

At this time, it appears that severe weather is unlikely in our local area.  I can’t rule out a few storms producing strong wind gusts.  There will be an intense low-level jet with this system.  It appears there won’t be enough CAPE (energy) for storms to truly become severe.

I will monitor it.  There is a low chance the Storm Prediction Center places a few of our counties in a marginal risk.

The rain and thunderstorm chances will push off to the east by late Wednesday night.

Gusty winds will continue into Thursday.

Thursday will be dry with the cold front moving west to east across the region.  Typically, we would expect a band of storms with the cold front.  Not this time.

Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be well above seasonal averages.  Expect highs in the seventies.  Yes, seventies!

We will be near a record high in Paducah tomorrow.

Double click images to enlarge them.

The squares represent where record high temperatures could occur.  Wednesday will deliver near record highs in our region.  Or, some records may even fall.

Check out the Thursday highs.  See the arctic cold air to our northwest.  That will stay bottled up that way.  We will only be brushed by the colder air Thursday night.

There could be a 100 degree temperature difference from the northern US to the southern US.

There is a 110+ degree difference on this map.  High temperatures Thursday.

That is impressive!

Our next chance of rain arrives Friday night into Saturday and perhaps even into Sunday.

There is quite a bit of forecast uncertainty surrounding the Saturday night into Sunday night time-frame.

Some of the data shows widespread showers and even thunderstorms.  Other data, shows little or no rain.

For now, I capped rain chances at the lower end of the spectrum.  I will monitor trends in the guidance and adjust accordingly.

A larger system is forecast to push back into the region Monday and Monday night with additional shower and thunderstorm chances.

Here is the latest outlooks for temperature and precipitation.   See the BAMwx ones farther down in the blog.

Six to ten day outlooks

Day eight through fourteen outlooks

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet.  Blue represents snow.  Dark blue represents heavy snow.

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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet.  Blue represents snow.  Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 

 

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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet.  Blue represents snow.  Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 

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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet.  Blue represents snow.  Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

Models are not picking up on much precipitation through Sunday night.

They show scattered sprinkles or flurries today into tomorrow.

You can barely see them on these graphics.

 

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This animation is the higher resolution 3K NAM American Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet.  Blue represents snow.  Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 

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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet.  Blue represents snow.  Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet.  Blue represents snow.  Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet.  Blue represents snow.  Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 

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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.

Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet.  Blue represents snow.  Dark blue represents heavy snow.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 

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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

Double click on image to enlarge it

Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM). 

 

 


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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

Click on the image to expand it.

This outlook covers February 21st, 2023 through February 28, 2023

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers March 1st through March 8th

Click on the image to expand

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around  60 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.90″ to 2.40″

This outlook covers March 7th through March 20th

Precipitation outlook

 

Monthly Outlooks

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

February Temperature and precipitation Outlook

Double click images to enlarge them.

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

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March Temperature and precipitation Outlook

Double click images to enlarge them.

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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

April Temperature and precipitation Outlook

Double click images to enlarge them.

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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

May Temperature and precipitation Outlook

Double click images to enlarge them.

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Seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook

March through May

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Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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