Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

This is what you are missing out on if you are not a $3 a month subscriber!

1. Daily forecast texts from my computer to your app/cell phone
2. Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone
3. Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone.  When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
4. Missouri Valley centered video updates
5. Ohio Valley centered video updates
6. Long-range video updates
7. Week one temperature and precipitation outlook
8. Week two temperature and precipitation outlook
9. Week three and four temperature and precipitation outlook
10. Monthly outlooks

Monthly operating costs for Weather Talk can top $2000.00.  Your $3 subscription helps pay for those costs.  I work for you.
.

.
Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.
.

.

.
Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link.

We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
.

.

.

Wednesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Rain likely.  I will again monitor surface temperatures over extreme northern portions of southeast Missouri and the Randolph County area in southern Illinois.  The current forecast is they remain near or a bit above freezing.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 32 to 36      IL ~ 32 to 36       KY ~ 38 to 46 (warmest near Hopkinsville vs Paducah)
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 80%    KY ~ 80%    TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to widespread
Wind chill values: 26 to 34
Accumulating snow or ice: Monitor updates.
Winds: North and northeast at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Monitor wintry mix potential.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Have a plan B

.

February 22, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers likely, especially over western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 46 to 54       IL ~  46 to 54       KY ~ 54 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 40% extreme west KY and 50% as you move towards the Pennyrile area into the Hopkinsville area of west KY          TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. A bit more coverage over western Kentucky and western Tennessee.
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: North and northeast at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor radars

.
Thursday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Rain and thunderstorms re-developing area-wide.  Locally heavy rain possible.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 44 to 50      IL ~ 44 to 50       KY ~ 52 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 80%    IL ~ 80%    KY ~ 70%    TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming widespread.
Wind chill values: 40’s
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: East and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph.  Winds becoming east and southeast.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Have a plan B

.

February 23, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Locally heavy rain possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 62      IL ~  56 to 60      KY ~ 62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%      IL ~ 70%       KY ~ 70%          TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: Variable at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B

.
Friday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain possible.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 48 to 54      IL ~ 46 to 55       KY ~54 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 70%    TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread.
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

.

February 24, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Warm.  Windy.  Periods of showers and thunderstorms.  A few storms could be severe during the afternoon hours.  Locally heavy rain.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 64 to 68       IL ~  64  to 68       KY ~65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%      IL ~ 70%       KY ~ 70%          TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: South and southeast at 14 to 28 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Heavy rain.  Some severe storms possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon.  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B

.
Saturday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms in the evening.  Some storms could be intense.  Locally heavy rain.  Precipitation ending overnight from west to east.  Turning colder.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 38 to 44    IL ~ 40 to 45       KY ~ 42 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 70%    TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous, especially the first half of the night.
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.  Winds becoming west and northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Heavy rain.  A few storms could be severe.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Severe thunderstorms are possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Have a plan B

February 25, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58      IL ~ 54 to 58     KY ~ 54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: West and northwest at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

.
Sunday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  A few passing clouds.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 35 to 40      IL ~ 35 to 40      KY ~ 36 to 42
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North 5 mph with gusts to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No

.

February 26, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58      IL ~ 54 to 58     KY ~ 54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: East and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

.
Monday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  A few passing clouds.  Cool.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 34 to 38       IL ~ 34 to 38       KY ~ 34 to 38
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North and northeast 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No

.

February 27, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 62      IL ~ 58 to 62     KY ~ 58 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

.
Tuesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  A few passing clouds.  Cool.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:    MO ~ 42 to 46      IL ~ 42 to 46      KY ~ 42 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No

.

.
The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Wednesday through Friday:  Monitor updates.  On and off thunderstorms chances are possible.  At this time, the severe weather risk appears low.  Lightning will be the main concern.  Heavy rain will be a concern.  Between now and Saturday, rainfall totals of one to four inches will be possible.  Locally higher totals possible.  Monitor updates.

Saturday and Saturday night:  Monitor updates.  Stronger storms are possible during this time frame.

.

.
The daily outlook can be found at the bottom of this post.
.

.
We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.

.

.

.

.

Forecast:

HIGHLIGHTS

1.  Active weather through Saturday night.  On and off rain and thunderstorm chances.
2.  Much colder today compared to recent days.
3.  Locally heavy rain is a concern this week.
4.  I am monitoring Saturday into Saturday night for strong thunderstorms.  Still a bit early for certainties.

High confidence today and tonight.

Today does not feel like yesterday.  Temperatures have been falling from west to east as a cold front marches through the region.

Here is the 7 AM temperature map.  The milder temperatures are being pushed off to the east and southeast.

Quite the temperature range across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley.

.
.

.

An active weather pattern is underway.  We will have multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms between now and Saturday night.

Generally, several inches of rain will fall across our region over the coming days.  Rivers, in some counties, are already high.  This rain will aggravate the situation.  There will be substantial rises on large and small rivers.  If you live by a river or have river interests then be sure and monitor updated crest information.

Between now and Saturday night you can expect a widespread two to three inches of rain.  Pockets of greater than five inches of rain likely.

Check out the seven-day rain forecast from the WPC/NOAA.  The widespread nature of this event will mean water basins will be soaked.

Click images to enlarge them
.

.
Let’s break that down into days.

Here are the forecast rainfall totals from 6 AM Wednesday through 6 AM Thursday
.

.
Here are the forecast rainfall totals from 6 AM Thursday through 6 AM Friday.
.

.
Here are the forecast rainfall totals from 6 AM Friday through 6 AM Saturday.
.

.
Additional rain will fall Saturday into Saturday night.  Locally heavy rain.
.

.

The good news is that severe weather is unlikely today through Friday.  Lightning will be possible from time to time.

I am closely monitoring Saturday for stronger thunderstorms.  The dynamics should be stronger Saturday.  Monitor updates concerning that part of the forecast.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an area for the possibility of severe storms Saturday afternoon and night.  This may shift around.  Monitor updates, as always.

The one lacking ingredient could be CAPE.  CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms to tap into.  It does not take much CAPE to cause problems.  A little uncertain about CAPE numbers Saturday.

The yellow zone is their current risk zone.  This may be expanded and it may shift around over the coming days.  Again, monitor updates.

.

.

Let’s check out some future-cast radar images from some of the models.

The timestamp can be found in the upper left portion of the graphic.

Green and yellow/orange represent rain.  Blue is snow.  Purple, pink, and red represent freezing rain.

This model is the high-resolution 3K NAM.

This is one model’s opinion.  Other models may disagree.  Model’s are for guidance and are not gospel.  Typically, no one model is 100% correct.  It normally takes a blend of model guidance to put together a forecast.
.

.

Here is what the 3K NAM paints for rain totals through 6 PM Friday
.

.
This model is the GFS guidance.  The GFS goes out further in time.  Again, the time stamp is located in the upper left portion of the graphic.

Several rounds of rain likely between now and Saturday night.
.

.
Here is the GFS model guidance temperature forecast.  Timestamp upper left.

This is for today through Thursday morning.
.

.
We will need to monitor river stages.  Rivers are going to rise over the coming weeks.
.

.
The preliminary summer forecast has been posted on the subscription website.  Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

Summer outlook – Click here

.

.

We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.