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Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
February 2nd through February 8th
Current risk: No concerns.
Current confidence level: High confidence.
Comments: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? NO.
2. Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
..3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees? POSSIBLE. On Wednesday night.
6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees? POSSIBLE. On Wednesday night.
7. Is accumulating snow (one inch or more of snow) or ice in the forecast? LOW RISK. A scattered wintry mix changing to rain is forecast for Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. At this time, any snow accumulation would be light.
If precipitation develops, we will need to monitor for freezing rain early in the event. Even if temperatures are above freezing, it takes more time for surfaces to warm. Thus, watch for icy patches. That is especially true on porches, decks, sidewalks, bridges, and overpasses.
Some data keep this system to our east, resulting in very little precipitation. See information below.
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Watch out for black ice each night and morning.
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Keep the kids off the ice-covered lakes and ponds. The ice may not be thick enough to support their weight.
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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.
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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.
We will remain in the green. No thunderstorm threats.
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Here is your bus stop forecast
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This afternoon
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Forecast discussion
- A warming trend this week. Friday will be the warmest day.
- A quick-moving system will bring a scattered wintry mix to the region on Tuesday. With time, temperatures will rise above freezing. The wintry mix should change to rain.
- The northern parts of SE MO and the northern portions of southern IL may stay a wintry mix or snow. Chances of measurable precipitation are a bit lower over our northern counties.
- Some data keeps us dry tomorrow and misses us. This is a possibility.
- Wednesday night will be a bit colder.
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What is the primary weather concern?
Here are this morning’s temperatures as of 5 AM.
Not as bad as recent mornings.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
See the video or graphics below for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
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Watch out for black ice each night and morning.
A weather system may (questions remain) bring a wintry mix changing to rain (over most of the area) late tonight and on Tuesday. Any accumulation would be light, but it only takes a little bit of sleet and freezing rain to cause problems.
Some data indicate that the bulk of the precipitation will occur to our east. That remains possible.
Notice on this graphic that portions of Illinois and Missouri end up with very little in the way of precipitation.
You can see this in the precipitation totals graphic for Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Notice how the totals are higher to our east.
Double-click on this graphic to enlarge it.
What is the % chance of precipitation Tonight into early Tuesday morning?
Tuesday 6 am to 6 pmThe % chance of precipitation. This has been trending eastward.
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Tuesday 6 pm to Wednesday 6 am
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The % chance of precipitation.
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Today through Thursday
The primary weather concern will be a fast-moving system late tonight into Tuesday.
Some of the high-resolution data keeps the bulk of this system just to our east. See the future-cast radars below.
Here is the RRFS model.
Notice how it keeps most of our region dry and forms the precipitation to our east.
Tuesday afternoon (the light blue over Missouri and Illinois are clouds)
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Late Tuesday afternoon. Note that most of the precipitation is to our east.
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This system will bring a scattered light wintry mix to the region. With time, temperatures will rise above freezing over most of the area. If not the entire area.
IF precipitation develops, the wintry mix and/or snow may linger longer north of Perry County, Missouri, and east-northeast into Jefferson County, Illinois.
Elsewhere, temperatures will rise above freezing and change everything over to plain old rain.
There is the potential for a period of freezing rain and sleet. This could cause roadways to become icy in some locations. Elevated surfaces will freeze more quickly than other surfaces.
Also, it takes time for surfaces to warm. Even though temperatures may be above freezing, that does not mean there won’t be some issues on roadways and surfaces. Use care on Tuesday.
As mentioned, some data show only trace amounts in our region. Even no precipitation at all in many counties.
This is a light event. It will probably produce 0 to 0.15″ of precipitation. Not much. Totals could be a bit higher over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Assuming, the precipitation doesn’t miss us to the east.
It will turn a bit colder on Wednedsay night, but then we warm up on Thursday and Friday.
Friday will be the warmest day of the week.
Let’s look at high temperatures for the upcoming week. Overnight lows will be colder, but not as extreme as recent days.
Today’s high temperatures
Tomorrow high temperatures
Wednesday high temperatures
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Thursday morning lows will be the coldest
Thursday high temperatures
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Friday high temperatures
Saturday high temperatures
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No major systems today through next Sunday.
Next week looks a bit warmer. Let’s hope!
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Blue is snow.
Hrrr model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Red is locally heavy rain. Blue is snow.
NAM 3K model
This is the system next Tuesday/Wednesday.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?
Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account
You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.
Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
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Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.
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Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
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I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.
Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson
Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live. I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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